Weekly Update 30 Oct 2020

Bonds moved higher, stocks and commodities declined, and currencies (both national and crypto) were mixed. The biggest gains were in Bitcoin, which rose 6.0%, and the Chinese Yuan, which gained 1.5%. Crude oil plunged 9.3% and the Euro STOXX fell 7.9%, the largest losses this week.

Asia led the national currencies on the upside, as the Chinese Yuan gained 1.5% and the Japanese Yen rose 1.4%. Europe lagged, declining 0.4%. The US Dollar rose 1.2%, as did its short term notes. Long term bonds gained 0.9%.

Bitcoin worked its way higher throughout the week, closing at 223.9 grams, up 6%. Ether zig-zagged lower, ending the week at 6.33 grams, down 5.5%. The CCi30 index of the 30 largest cap cryptos closed off 2.9%.

All the equities in my table finished lower, but the Nikkei outperformed its peers by dropping just 0.9%. The Euro STOXX, down 7.9%, saw the largest loss of any asset this week. The Dow Industrials were off 5.4% and the S&P 500 closed down 4.5%.

The only "bright spot" in the commodities was coffee, which managed to close unchanged; all others lost ground. Crude oil fell 9.3%, and platinum and palladium were hit hard, dropping 6.0% and 5.9% respectively. Copper held up relatively well, declining just 1.5%.

Year over year, the cryptocurrencies are clearly in the driver's seat, as Ether rose 58.9% and Bitcoin gained 16.7%. Gold stocks were not far behind, adding 16.3%. National currencies, bonds, and the major stock indexes are all deep in the red, but the worst performer continues to be crude oil, down 48.6%, with the Euro STOXX in second place, off 32.2%.

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Weekly Update 16 Oct 2020

Currencies and bonds moved higher, but other asset classes were mixed. The biggest gains were in cotton, which rose 4.4%, and Bitcoin, which gained 3.2%. Palladium fell more than any other asset, dropping 3.9%. Coffee was in second place, declining 2.9%.

The Japanese Yen was the strongest national currency, rising 1.2%. The US Dollar was next best, gaining 1.0%. The Euro was the weakest, adding just 0.1%. Short term notes tracked USD cash, advancing 1.0%, but long term bonds did much better, rising 1.8%.

Bitcoin rose 3.2%, the second largest gain in this week's table. Monero (not in table) did far better, soaring 13.9%. Ether rose 1.0%, but the broader 30 crypto index fell by 0.2%.

US stock markets rose, led by the S&P 500 which gained 1.1%. Gold stocks underperformed, falling 1.0%, as did the Euro STOXX, which dropped 0.9%. The Dow Industrials added 1.0%.

The week's big price moves were mostly in commodities, as cotton rose 4.4% and palladium fell 3.9%. Crude oil added 1.7% and coffee dropped 2.9%. Silver was up 1.1%.

Looking back over the last year, Ethereum and gold stocks continue to be the dominant winners, gaining 57.7% and 28.2% respectively. Crude oil and the Euro STOXX were the worst performing assets, falling 40.3% and 25.6% respectively.

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Weekly Update 9 Oct 2020

This was a pretty good week as long as you weren't in currencies or bonds. The biggest gains were in crude oil, which rose 8.5%, and palladium, which gained 4.9%. Long term bonds fell more than any other asset, dropping 2.7%. The Japanese Yen was in second place, declining 1.3%.

National currencies were mixed but mostly lower. The Canadian Dollar was the exception, rising 0.3%. The Yen fell 1.3%, and the US Dollar declined 1.1%. the Chinese Yuan is listed as unchanged because the Shanghai Gold Exchange was closed for a week of national holiday. Short term notes tracked USD cash, declining 1.1%, but long term bonds fell 2.7%, the largest loss in any asset in this table.

Cryptocurrencies rose strongly, with Ethereum (up 4.5%) leading the way. Bitcoin gained 3.6% and the broader index of the 30 largest cryptos added 3.4%. Some smaller cryptocurrencies outperformed the majors. For instance, Monero (not in table) rose 11.8%.

Stocks moved higher, led by the HUI gold stock index, which gained 3.7%. The Japanese Nikkei underperformed its peers, but still added 1.2%. The S&P 500 rose 2.8%.

Commodity price action was mostly bullish; only platinum closed lower for the week, down 0.9%. Crude oil rose sharply, gaining 8.5%, and palladium was also strong, rising 4.9%. Silver was a bit lackluster, adding 0.8%.

Looking back year over year, Ethereum and gold stocks remain the best performing assets, rising 57.5% and 25.0% respectively. Crude oil has the worst record, falling 39.5%. The US Dollar is in second place, giving up 21.6% of its value.

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Weekly Update 2 Oct 2020

Commodities were mixed, but all other asset classes moved lower. The biggest gains were in platinum, which rose 3.5%, and silver, which added 3.1%. Crude oil and coffee fell the most, dropping 10.1% and 6.3% respectively.

The US Dollar led all other nation's currencies lower, falling 2.3%. The Chinese Yuan dropped the least, giving up 1.4%. Short term treasury notes tracked USD cash, but long term bonds fell much more, declining 3.6%.

Most major cryptocurrencies moved lower, although some smaller ones bucked the trend. Ether dropped 3.8% and Bitcoin declined 3.3%. While the CCi30 index of the 30 largest cap cryptos was down 3.5% overall, some components rose strongly; for instance, Monero (not in table) rose 10.2%.

Stock indexes also fell, led by the Japanese Nikkei, which shed 2.8%. The Dow Jones Industrials outperformed, giving up just 0.4%. Gold stocks declined 0.9%.

The most extreme price action was all in commodities. On the downside, crude oil crashed 10.1% while coffee fell 6.3%. Precious metals were all in the black, as platinum rose 3.5%, silver gained 3.1%, and palladium added 2.5%. Copper did not participate in the metal rally; it closed off 2.1%.

On a year over year basis, Ethereum continues to reign with a gain of 51.3%. In a distant second place we have the HUI gold stocks, up 22.6%, and in third place is the CCi30 index, up 20.7%. The worst loss is in crude oil, down 44.9%. In a dead heat for second place are the Canadian Dollar, down 21.7%, and the US Dollar and the Euro STOXX index, down 21.6% each.

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Weekly Update 25 Sep 2020

National currencies and bonds rose sharply, but other asset classes were mixed. The biggest gains were in long term bonds, which soared 5.9%, and cotton, which rose 5.4%. Silver collapsed, dropping 12.3%. The second worst decline was in platinum, which fell 6.0%.

The US Dollar outperformed all other national currencies, rising 4.9%. The Eurozone (EUR, GBP and CHF) lagged behind, gaining 2.8% each. Long term bonds rose 5.9%, the largest gain for any asset this week. Short term notes traded in line with USD cash, adding 4.9%.

Crpytocurrencies were mixed, as Bitcoin rose 2.6% while Ethereum fell 3.9%. The index of the 30 largest cryptos, the CCi30, managed a 0.2% gain.

Equities were mostly higher, but gold stocks declined 2.1% and the Euro STOXX pulled back 1.2%. The S&P 500 was the equity leader, rising 4.2%. The Dow Industrials closed up 3.1%.

Commodities were once again the home of large price swings. This week was rough for silver, as it dropped 12.3%, erasing all of the metal's gains for August and September. Platinum dropped to a low of 13.9 grams on Thursday, but rallied to finish at 14.1 grams, down 6.0%. Cotton had a very good week, rising 5.4%, the second best performance of any asset in the table.

On a year over year basis, cryptos and gold stocks were the place to be, as Ether rose 71.3%, the CCi30 gained 29.1%, and the HUI added 20.5%. Crude oil and platinum were the worst performers, falling 41.4% and 26.8% respectively. European stocks were not far behind, dropping 21.4%.

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Weekly Update 18 Sep 2020

Bonds were lower, but other asset classes were mixed. The biggest gains were in crude oil, up 9.9%, and Bitcoin, which rose 5.0%. Coffee saw the largest loss, falling 14.5%. The second worst drop was in the Euro STOXX, which slid 0.9%.

The Japanese Yen was the strongest national currency, rising 1.6%, while the British Pound (not in table) was next best, gaining 1.2%. The US Dollar was the weakest currency, falling 0.2%. Short term treasury notes followed USD cash, but long term bonds fell more, declining 0.7%.

Among cryptocurrencies, the largest fared the best. Bitcoin rose 5.0% and Ether gained 2.4%, but the CCi30 index of the largest 30 cryptocurrencies fell 0.1%, as many of the smaller coins declined. For example, DASH (not in table) closed down 6.3%.

Japanese stocks rallied 1.4%, and gold stocks added 0.3%, but other indexes were lower. The European STOXX index fell 0.9%, and the S&P 500 dropped 0.8%. The Dow Industrials were off 0.2%.

As is often the case, commodities had the largest gains and losses of any asset type. Coffee imploded, but other commodities rose, led by crude oil's 9.9% gain. Copper was up 2.3%, and cotton added 1.1%. Coffee's all time low was 16.8 grams on 15-July-2020, and it hit its recent high of 21.6 grams on 4-Sep-2020. This week it fell every trading day to finish at 18.1 grams, down 14.5%, a 72% retracement.

Over the last year, Ether and gold stocks continue to outperform, rising 41.9% and 26.3% respectively. The largest losses were in crude oil, down 45.5%. Tied for second worst performance are platinum and the US Dollar, off 22.9% each.

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Weekly Update 11 Sep 2020

Almost every asset in the table lost value this week. The only exceptions were platinum, which rose 1.8%, and long term treasury bonds, which closed unchanged. The worst losses were in crude oil, down 7.2%, and Ethereum, off 4.5%.

The Canadian Dollar was the worst performing national currency, falling 1.6%. The Chinese Yuan did best, sliding 0.5%. The USD fell 1.1%; short term treasury notes dropped 1.0% and long term bonds closed unchanged.

Ether closed down 4.5%, Bitcoin was off 2.1%, and the larger crypto space as measured by the CCi30 declined 1.5%. Some of the smaller components of the CCi30 fared much better; for instance DASH finished the week up 4.4%.

The worst performing stock markets were in the US, as the S&P 500 dropped 3.6% and the Dow Industrials fell 2.7%. The Japanese Nikkei outperformed its peers, giving up just 0.1%.

The week's largest price swings were in the commodities, as crude oil plunged 7.2% and platinum rallied 1.8%. Other metals were not so lucky: copper fell 1.9% and silver declined 0.9%.

On a year over year basis, Ethereum (up 60.3%) and gold stocks (up 23.7%) are the best performers. The worst assets to hold were crude oil (down 48.7%) and platinum (off 24.4%). The Canadian and US Dollars were close behind, falling 23.6% and 23.5% respectively.

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Weekly Update 4 Sep 2020

National currencies and bonds rose, cryptocurrencies fell, while stocks and commodities were mixed. Coffee (up 7.8%) and Palladium (up 6.9%) experienced the largest gains. The worst losses were in the cryptocurrencies, as Bitcoin dropped 7.5% and the CCi30 fell 6.7%. Crude oil was close behind, falling 6.0%.

The US Dollar led the national currencies higher, rising 1.6%. The Japanese Yen underperformed, gaining just 0.6%. Treasury notes moved up in line with USD cash, but long term bonds soared 2.7%.

Bitcoin started the week by rising to a high of 188.8 grams on Tuesday, then was slammed hard on Thursday, falling to 164.2 grams before recovering to end the week at 169.7 grams, down 7.5%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, but rose to a high of 7.52 grams before falling to close at 6.27 grams, down just 0.3%.

Japanese stocks, possibly buoyed by the cheap Yen, outperformed their peers, rising 2.1%. Gold stocks turned in the worst performance, falling 1.0%. US stocks rose to 6 week highs on Wednesday, then gave back all those gains and more. Overall, the S&P dropped 0.7% and the Dow Industrials declined 0.2%.

Commodities were a very mixed bag. Coffee and palladium turned in the week's best gains, rising 7.8% and 6.9% respectively. Crude oil collapsed 6.0%, the worst drop outside of the crypto space. Copper made nice gains, climbing 3.9%, while silver was little changed, down 0.4%.

Year over year, Ethereum (up 72.7%) remains the best performer, while crude oil (down 43.3%) remains the worst. Palladium (up 17.8%) and the HUI gold stocks (up 15.7%) trail far behind ETH. Platinum (off 25.8%) is in second place to the downside. Behind platinum are all the national currencies, led lower by the JPY and USD (down 19.8% and 19.7% respectively.)

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Weekly Update 28 Aug 2020

National currencies and bonds rolled over and headed lower. Cryptocurrencies mostly fell, but stocks and commodities were mixed. Long term bonds experienced the largest drop, falling 4.7%. Coffee once again had the biggest rally, rising 3.6%.

The Chinese Yuan was the strongest national currency, falling just 0.3%, while the US Dollar was the weakest, dropping 1.7%. Short term notes fell 1.7%, in line with USD cash, but long term bonds got hammered, plummeting 4.7%, the largest loss of the week.

Bitcoin dipped to a low of 183.1 grams on Monday, then recovered gradually to close at 183.4 grams, down 2.1%. Ethereum was relatively stable, ending the week unchanged. The CCi30, tracking the broader cryptocurrency market, slid 0.8%.

Stocks were mixed but mostly higher, with gold stocks once again outperforming the major indexes, rising 1.8%. The Nikkei was the only declining index, falling 1.2%. The S&P 500 gained 1.5% and the Dow added 0.9%.

Coffee was the best performer overall and within the commodity complex, finishing up 3.6%. Palladium experienced the largest drop in the sector, falling 2.3%. Platinum showed strength, rising 1.6%. Silver and crude oil were little changed, up 0.1% and down 0.2% respectively.

Ethereum retained its position as the leader over the last year, rising 65.3%. The CCi30 crypto index was in second place, with a gain of 21.9%. Contending for third place are silver, up 17.0%, palladium, up 16.8%, and the HUI gold stocks, up 16.7%. Crude oil has fallen the most, dropping 39.5%. It's a tight race for second place between the USD, off 21.5%, and the JPY, down 21.0%.

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Weekly Update 21 Aug 2020: CCi30 Coverage Added

National currencies continued their rally, though at an easier pace; bonds rose also. The largest cryptocurrencies moved lower, giving back some of the prior week's gains, but overall the crypto space was mixed, as were stocks and commodities. Ethereum made the largest drop, falling 10.1%. Coffee had the biggest rally, adding 5.7%.

The Japanese Yen was the strongest national currency, rising 1.5%, while the Euro was the weakest, adding 0.6%. The US Dollar gained 1.1%. Short term notes moved up 1.1%, in line with USD cash, but long term bonds outperformed, rising 2.9%.

Bitcoin rose to a high of 193.2 grams on Monday, then worked lower to close at 187.4 grams, off 0.5%. Ethereum moved lower throughout the week, ending down 10.1%, the largest loss for any asset in the table. In spite of these losses, and the decline in the CCi30 (see more below) several important crypto currencies did make substantial gains. One example was privacy-centric Monero (XMR, not in table) which rose 11.8%.

Starting this week, I am adding coverage for a crypto currencies index, the CCi30. This is a market cap weighted index of the 30 largest cryptos (excluding stable coins). It is based on an index value of 100 for 1-Jan-2015. So this week's reading of 3,019.88 grams means that 100 grams (about 3.2 ounces) invested in the index at the beginning of 2015 would have grown to a value of more than 3 kg (97.1 ounces) today. A CCI30 chart page has been added as well.

Stocks were mixed but mostly higher, with gold stocks outperforming their peers, rising 3.1%. The S&P 500, up 1.8%, was best among the major indexes. The Euro STOXX fared worst, declining 0.3%.

Commodities were also mostly higher. Platinum was the only loser, giving up 4.5%. The best performers were coffee, up 5.7%, and cotton, up 3.4%. Copper rose 3.1% and silver gained 1.6%.

Although it took a drubbing this week, Ethereum is still the best performer, by far, over the last year, rising 54.8%. Vying for second place are the HUI gold stocks, up 21.2%, and silver, up 22.6%. Crude oil has fallen the most, dropping 40.6%. It's a tight race for second worst between the USD, off 21.9%, CAD, down 21.4%, and the JPY, down 21.5%.

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