Weekly Update 11 Sep 2020

Almost every asset in the table lost value this week. The only exceptions were platinum, which rose 1.8%, and long term treasury bonds, which closed unchanged. The worst losses were in crude oil, down 7.2%, and Ethereum, off 4.5%.

The Canadian Dollar was the worst performing national currency, falling 1.6%. The Chinese Yuan did best, sliding 0.5%. The USD fell 1.1%; short term treasury notes dropped 1.0% and long term bonds closed unchanged.

Ether closed down 4.5%, Bitcoin was off 2.1%, and the larger crypto space as measured by the CCi30 declined 1.5%. Some of the smaller components of the CCi30 fared much better; for instance DASH finished the week up 4.4%.

The worst performing stock markets were in the US, as the S&P 500 dropped 3.6% and the Dow Industrials fell 2.7%. The Japanese Nikkei outperformed its peers, giving up just 0.1%.

The week's largest price swings were in the commodities, as crude oil plunged 7.2% and platinum rallied 1.8%. Other metals were not so lucky: copper fell 1.9% and silver declined 0.9%.

On a year over year basis, Ethereum (up 60.3%) and gold stocks (up 23.7%) are the best performers. The worst assets to hold were crude oil (down 48.7%) and platinum (off 24.4%). The Canadian and US Dollars were close behind, falling 23.6% and 23.5% respectively.

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Weekly Update 4 Sep 2020

National currencies and bonds rose, cryptocurrencies fell, while stocks and commodities were mixed. Coffee (up 7.8%) and Palladium (up 6.9%) experienced the largest gains. The worst losses were in the cryptocurrencies, as Bitcoin dropped 7.5% and the CCi30 fell 6.7%. Crude oil was close behind, falling 6.0%.

The US Dollar led the national currencies higher, rising 1.6%. The Japanese Yen underperformed, gaining just 0.6%. Treasury notes moved up in line with USD cash, but long term bonds soared 2.7%.

Bitcoin started the week by rising to a high of 188.8 grams on Tuesday, then was slammed hard on Thursday, falling to 164.2 grams before recovering to end the week at 169.7 grams, down 7.5%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, but rose to a high of 7.52 grams before falling to close at 6.27 grams, down just 0.3%.

Japanese stocks, possibly buoyed by the cheap Yen, outperformed their peers, rising 2.1%. Gold stocks turned in the worst performance, falling 1.0%. US stocks rose to 6 week highs on Wednesday, then gave back all those gains and more. Overall, the S&P dropped 0.7% and the Dow Industrials declined 0.2%.

Commodities were a very mixed bag. Coffee and palladium turned in the week's best gains, rising 7.8% and 6.9% respectively. Crude oil collapsed 6.0%, the worst drop outside of the crypto space. Copper made nice gains, climbing 3.9%, while silver was little changed, down 0.4%.

Year over year, Ethereum (up 72.7%) remains the best performer, while crude oil (down 43.3%) remains the worst. Palladium (up 17.8%) and the HUI gold stocks (up 15.7%) trail far behind ETH. Platinum (off 25.8%) is in second place to the downside. Behind platinum are all the national currencies, led lower by the JPY and USD (down 19.8% and 19.7% respectively.)

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Weekly Update 28 Aug 2020

National currencies and bonds rolled over and headed lower. Cryptocurrencies mostly fell, but stocks and commodities were mixed. Long term bonds experienced the largest drop, falling 4.7%. Coffee once again had the biggest rally, rising 3.6%.

The Chinese Yuan was the strongest national currency, falling just 0.3%, while the US Dollar was the weakest, dropping 1.7%. Short term notes fell 1.7%, in line with USD cash, but long term bonds got hammered, plummeting 4.7%, the largest loss of the week.

Bitcoin dipped to a low of 183.1 grams on Monday, then recovered gradually to close at 183.4 grams, down 2.1%. Ethereum was relatively stable, ending the week unchanged. The CCi30, tracking the broader cryptocurrency market, slid 0.8%.

Stocks were mixed but mostly higher, with gold stocks once again outperforming the major indexes, rising 1.8%. The Nikkei was the only declining index, falling 1.2%. The S&P 500 gained 1.5% and the Dow added 0.9%.

Coffee was the best performer overall and within the commodity complex, finishing up 3.6%. Palladium experienced the largest drop in the sector, falling 2.3%. Platinum showed strength, rising 1.6%. Silver and crude oil were little changed, up 0.1% and down 0.2% respectively.

Ethereum retained its position as the leader over the last year, rising 65.3%. The CCi30 crypto index was in second place, with a gain of 21.9%. Contending for third place are silver, up 17.0%, palladium, up 16.8%, and the HUI gold stocks, up 16.7%. Crude oil has fallen the most, dropping 39.5%. It's a tight race for second place between the USD, off 21.5%, and the JPY, down 21.0%.

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Weekly Update 21 Aug 2020: CCi30 Coverage Added

National currencies continued their rally, though at an easier pace; bonds rose also. The largest cryptocurrencies moved lower, giving back some of the prior week's gains, but overall the crypto space was mixed, as were stocks and commodities. Ethereum made the largest drop, falling 10.1%. Coffee had the biggest rally, adding 5.7%.

The Japanese Yen was the strongest national currency, rising 1.5%, while the Euro was the weakest, adding 0.6%. The US Dollar gained 1.1%. Short term notes moved up 1.1%, in line with USD cash, but long term bonds outperformed, rising 2.9%.

Bitcoin rose to a high of 193.2 grams on Monday, then worked lower to close at 187.4 grams, off 0.5%. Ethereum moved lower throughout the week, ending down 10.1%, the largest loss for any asset in the table. In spite of these losses, and the decline in the CCi30 (see more below) several important crypto currencies did make substantial gains. One example was privacy-centric Monero (XMR, not in table) which rose 11.8%.

Starting this week, I am adding coverage for a crypto currencies index, the CCi30. This is a market cap weighted index of the 30 largest cryptos (excluding stable coins). It is based on an index value of 100 for 1-Jan-2015. So this week's reading of 3,019.88 grams means that 100 grams (about 3.2 ounces) invested in the index at the beginning of 2015 would have grown to a value of more than 3 kg (97.1 ounces) today. A CCI30 chart page has been added as well.

Stocks were mixed but mostly higher, with gold stocks outperforming their peers, rising 3.1%. The S&P 500, up 1.8%, was best among the major indexes. The Euro STOXX fared worst, declining 0.3%.

Commodities were also mostly higher. Platinum was the only loser, giving up 4.5%. The best performers were coffee, up 5.7%, and cotton, up 3.4%. Copper rose 3.1% and silver gained 1.6%.

Although it took a drubbing this week, Ethereum is still the best performer, by far, over the last year, rising 54.8%. Vying for second place are the HUI gold stocks, up 21.2%, and silver, up 22.6%. Crude oil has fallen the most, dropping 40.6%. It's a tight race for second worst between the USD, off 21.9%, CAD, down 21.4%, and the JPY, down 21.5%.

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Weekly Update 14 Aug 2020

Most assets were in the black as national currencies bounced smartly off the all-time lows set last week. The only losses were gold stocks, which fell 1.6%, and silver, which closed down 1.5%. Ethereum made the largest gains, rising 20.4%. Platinum was in second place, gaining 9.7%.

The Chinese Yuan outperformed other national currencies, rising 6.3%. The Japanese Yen lagged, gaining 3.9%. The US Dollar cash added 4.4%, as did short term treasury notes. Long term bonds did much worse, gaining just 0.3%.

Ethereum worked its way higher through the week, then jumped strongly on Thursday and Friday to close at 7.0 grams for the week's largest gain of 20.4%. Bitcoin also moved higher, peaking on Thursday at 188.5 grams, then pulled back to close at 188.2 grams, up 5.9%.

Gold stocks were the only equities to close lower; they finished down 1.6%, the week's largest loss. The Japanese Nikkei index outperformed its peers, rising 8.3%. The S&P 500 trailed the other major indexes, gaining 5.1%. The Dow Industrials added 6.3%.

Silver was the only declining commodity, pulling back 1.5% after the prior week's monster 13.9% surge. Platinum was the best commodity performer, rising 9.7%. Copper was also strong, gaining 6.9%.

Looking back over the last 12 months, Ethereum is by far the best performer, returning 61.5%. Silver bullion and gold stocks take second and third place, with gains of 21.4% and 20.4% respectively. The worst performance was from crude oil, which is down 40.8% for the year. The second, third and fourth worst performers were all national currencies, as the Japanese Yen fell 22.7%, the US Dollar dropped 22.2%, and the Canadian Dollar declined 21.9%.

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Weekly Update 7 Aug 2020

National currencies and bonds continued to fall, with currencies hitting new all-time lows across the board; stocks, cryptocurrencies and commodities were mixed. The week's biggest gains were in silver, which continued its massive breakout by rising 13.9%. Ethereum was in distant second place, adding 6.2%. The largest losses were in coffee, which fell 6.1%, and copper, which closed down 5.8%.

Every national currency I track, from the Aussie Dollar to the Russian Ruble, made a new all-time low this week, mostly on Thursday. Hardest hit was the Chinese Yuan, which changed hands on the Shanghai Gold Exchange for 2.24 mg, a drop of 4.6%. The Ruble (not in table) outperformed its peers by falling just 2.6%. The US Dollar was down 3.3%. Short term notes traded in line with cash, but long term bonds fared worse, dropping 3.8%.

Bitcoin started the week strongly, hitting a high of 186.1 grams on Saturday the 1st, but pulled back to 175.0 grams before closing at 177.7 grams, off 0.9%. Ethereum hit its high of 6.14 grams on Monday, then worked lower to close at 5.81 grams, a gain of 6.2%. Some smaller cryptos did much better; for instance DASH (not in table) rose 13.6%, and Monero (not in table) gained 11.7%.

Among the equity markets, the Dow Industrials were king, outperforming its peers by eking out a 0.4% gain for the week, making it the only major equity index in the black. The HUI gold stocks underperformed, falling 3.2%. The S&P 500 lost 0.9%.

Volatility was concentrated in the commodities, as silver rallied 13.9% for the week's biggest gain, the only gain in the commodity complex. Coffee fell 6.1% for the largest loss, but copper was also hit hard, falling 5.8%.

Looking back over the last year, silver is now the best performing asset, rising 24.9%. Ethereum is close behind, up 21.1%. Gold stocks, despite their poor performance for the week, are still the 3rd best performer on the one year time scale, with a gain of 18.1%. Crude oil still shows the largest loss, down 40.2% for the year.

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Weekly Update 31 Jul 2020

National currencies, stocks and bonds continued to decline, while cryptocurrencies soared and commodities were mixed. The week's biggest gains were in Ethereum and Bitcoin, up 19.8% and 14.9%. The largest losses were in palladium, which fell 8.5%, and the Nikkei 225 index, which closed down 7.5%.

National currencies all moved lower, led by the US Dollar, down 3.2%. The best performers were the Euro, off 1.5%, and the Swiss Franc (not in table) which slid 1.8%. Bonds also fell, with the short term SHY dropping 3.1% and the long term TLT declining 2.5%.

Cryptocurrencies were broadly higher. Bitcoin, the oldest and largest, climbed throughout the week finishing at 179.3 grams, up 14.9%. Ethereum, the second largest, gained 19.8%. Bitcoin continued to climb over the weekend, then saw a "flash crash" rumored to be caused by a billion dollar short sale in the futures market, but quickly rallied back to the 178.6 gram level, about where it closed on Friday.

Stocks were all lower, led by the Nikkei 225, which dropped 7.5%. The Euro STOXX fell 5.8% and the S&P 500 sank 4.4%. Gold stocks outperformed, giving up just 0.6%. On a year over year basis, gold stocks have far outpaced all other assets, rising 27.8%.

Aside from cryptocurrencies, the commodity sector provided all the week's gains. Coffee rose 6.2% and silver added 3.7%. But the sector also had the largest loss, as palladium fell 8.5%.

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Weekly Update 24 Jul 2020: Currencies Crash

National currencies and bonds fell hard, and equities (other than gold stocks) moved lower. Cryptocurrencies and commodities were mixed. The week's biggest gains were in Ethereum and silver, up 14.0% and 11.5%. The largest losses were in cotton, which fell 7.8%.

National currencies were hammered hard this week. Almost every currency I track is at new all-time lows, including the USD, EUR, CNY, CHF, GBP, CAD, RUB, and ARS as well as the SDR. The only exceptions are the JPY, which sits just 1% above its all-time low, set on 21-Jan-1980, and the CLP and AUD, which are about 2% above their all-time lows set in April of this year. On a weekly basis, the US Dollar was hardest hit, dropping 5.0%. The Euro and British Pound (not in table) outperformed their peers, falling 3.3% and 3.1% respectively. Short term treasury notes dropped 5.0% (in line with USD cash) while long term bonds declined 3.3%.

Bitcoin rose to a high of 159.9 grams on Wednesday, but fell sharply on Friday to close at 155.9 grams, off 1.0%. Ethereum was relatively flat until Wednesday, when it started rising rapidly. It finished the week at 4.57 grams, up 14.0%, the best showing for any asset in the table.

Gold stocks rose 2.1%, but all other major equity indexes fell, led lower by the Dow Industrials which finished down 5.7%. The smallest drop was in the S&P 500, off 2.4%.

As usual recently, much of the big price action was in the commodities. Silver rocketed higher, gaining 11.5% and breaking out of its long term downtrending channel. Platinum also rose strongly, gaining 6.7%. Cotton saw the largest decline, falling 7.8%. Copper and crude oil also fell, closing 5.4% and 3.3% lower.

Over the weekend, national currencies continued to fall while cryptocurrencies gained ground.

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Weekly Update 17 Jul 2020

Stocks moved higher, cryptocurrencies pulled back, and other asset classes were mixed. The week's biggest moves were once again in commodities, as coffee rose 4.8% and cotton fell 3.9%. Other strong performers were palladium, up 3.8%, and the Euro STOXX, which gained 2.9%.

The Chinese Yuan gained 0.8%, and the Euro added 0.7%. The largest losses were in the British Pound (not in table), down 1.2%, and the Japanese Yen, off 0.6%. The US Dollar lost 0.2%, as did its short term notes. Long term treasury bonds were unchanged.

Bitcoin declined through the week to a low of 157.1 grams on Thursday before reversing course and closing Friday at 157.6 grams, off 1.6%. Ethereum worked it's way lower all week, ending at 4.01 grams, down 3.6%. Both cryptos were rising over the weekend.

Equity markets were all in the black, led by The European STOXX50, which rose 2.9%. The Dow Industrials were in second place, gaining 2.0%. The S&P 500 lagged behind other major indexes, adding 1.0%. Gold stocks closed 1.8% higher.

Commodities were all over the place… Coffee climbed 4.8% (the week's biggest gain) while cotton fell 3.9% (the week's largest loss). Palladium and silver rose 3.8% and 1.8% respectively, but platinum fell 1.5%. Crude oil and copper were little changed.

Looking back over the last year, only a few assets are in the black. Far and away the strongest are the HUI gold stocks, up 19.4%. The other gains were much smaller: palladium is up 2.5% and the TLT long term bond fund has risen 0.5%. The largest losses were in crude oil, down 44.2% and Bitcoin, off 26.3%, closely followed by coffee (down 25.7%) and the Canadian Dollar (down 25.0%).

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Weekly Update 10 Jul 2020

National currencies fell, cryptocurrencies rose, and other asset classes were mixed. The week's biggest moves were all in commodities, as coffee lost 7.2% and copper gained 5.6%. Other strong performers were Ethereum and the HUI gold stocks, which added 5.1% each.

The US and Canadian Dollars led the way lower for the national currencies, falling 1.7% apiece. The Chinese Yuan outperformed, declining 0.6%, as did the British Pound Sterling (not in table) which gave up just 0.2%. Short term treasury notes moved in line with USD cash, dropping 1.7%, but long term treasury bonds rose 0.2%.

Cryptocurrencies had a fairly quiet week. Bitcoin peaked on Monday at 163.1 grams, then declined gradually to finish at 160.1 grams, up 0.4%. Ethereum hit it's high on Wednesday at 4.24 grams, and ended the week at 4.16 grams, up 5.1%.

Gold stocks dominated the equities, rising 5.1%. The only other index in the black was the S&P 500, which added 0.1%. The Japanese Nikkei dropped the most, giving up 1.0%. The Dow Industrials closed down 0.7%.

As mentioned earlier, most of the week's fireworks were in commodities. The metals were all up, led by copper and silver, which rose 5.6% and 2.4% respectively. Coffee dropped 7.2%, the week's largest loss, while crude oil fell 1.9%.

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