Weekly Update 29 May 2020

Another mixed, but generally higher week. The largest gains were in the Euro STOXX50 and the Japanese Nikkei, which each rose 7.3%. In second place was crude oil, which added 7.0%. The worst losses were in coffee, which fell 6.8%, and gold mining stocks, which dropped 3.9%.

China's Yuan declined 0.2%, and Japan's Yen closed unchanged, but all other national currencies moved higher. The largest gains were in the Euro, which rose 2.4%. The Canadian Dollar also had a good week, rising 1.8%. The US Dollar added 0.3%, as did its short term notes. Long term bonds fell 0.9%.

Cryptocurrencies had a good week, as Ethereum rose 6.8% and Bitcoin gained 3.1%. Both fell early in the week, then recovered to close higher. I am writing a more detailed post on Bitcoin and its future, post halving. You can see some of this work in my updated Bitcoin long term chart.

In the equity space, only gold stocks closed lower, falling 3.9%. Japanese and European indexes rose strongly, gaining 7.3% each. In the US, the S&P 500 added 3.3% while the Dow Industrials rose 4.0%.

Most commodities moved higher this week, led by crude oil, which closed up 7.0%. The only losers were coffee, which fell 6.8% for the largest loss of any asset this week, and platinum, which pulled back 0.9%. Silver was the second-strongest performer in the commodity group, rising 3.8% to close at 316 mg/oz.

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Weekly Update 22 May 2020

Every asset category was mixed, but mostly higher this week. The largest gains were in crude oil, which rose 12.8%, and platinum, which gained 8.8%. The worst losses were in gold mining stocks, as the HUI index fell 3.9%.

Last week, many national currencies, including the Euro, Swiss Franc, Chinese Yuan, British Pound and Canadian Dollar closed at new all-time lows. This week, the Swiss Franc and Chinese Yen fell further to make new lows, then recovered along with the others. The Euro lead the way higher, finishing up 0.8%, followed by the British Pound (not in table) which gained 0.6%. The Chinese Yuan was the weakest currency, falling 0.8%. USD cash and short term notes rose 0.1%; long term bonds were off 0.6%.

Bitcoin rose to a high of 174.4 grams on Monday, then pulled back, finishing the week at 164.8, down 1.5%. Ethereum advanced to a high of 3.85 grams on Monday, but settled back to close at 3.72 grams, up 6.0%.

Gold stocks fell 3.9%, but all other major markets moved higher, led by the Euro STOXX 50, which closed up 5.8%. The UK FTSE 100 index (not in table) rose 4.0%, while the S&P 500 rose 3.3%, and the Japanese Nikkei gained 1.7%.

Crude oil continues to recover, rising 12.8% this week, but at 597 mg, it is still below its 2016 low of 660 mg. Platinum also performed well, gaining 8.8%. The largest commodity losses were in Coffee, which declined 2.9%.

I have had requests to update the long term chart of the S&P Composite based on Shiller's data from his book, Irrational Exuberance. I have done so, as a logarithmic chart that more clearly portrays price changes, especially for the earlier decades. You can view the chart here. On this log chart, each major division of the price axis represents a doubling (when rising) or a halving (when falling). This allows direct comparison of price movements in percentage terms, even at very different price levels.

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Weekly Update 15 May 2020

Stocks and commodities were mixed, but all other assets moved lower. The largest gains were in crude oil, which rose 17.2%, and silver, which gained 6.5%. The worst losses were in the cryptos, as Ethereum fell 9.8%, and Bitcoin declined 6.9%.

All national currencies fell, led by the Canadian Dollar, down 2.9%, and the Japanese Yen, off 2.6%. The Chinese Yuan dropped the least, giving up 1.3%. The US Dollar slid 1.8%, as did its short term notes. Long term bonds did better, falling just 0.2%.

Cryptocurrencies got hammered. Bitcoin plunged to a low of 157.1 grams on Monday, then worked higher to close the week at 167.2 grams, off 6.9%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, hitting a low of 3.40 grams on Monday, and finishing the week at 3.51 grams, down 9.8%.

Gold stocks rallied 2.2%, but all other equity indexes fell. The European STOXX dropped the most, closing down 6.0%. The Nikkei outperformed other major markets, giving up 3.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 4.4%.

Crude oil continued to rebound, rising 17.2%. Silver also made large gains, adding 6.5%. Coffee and copper were the worst performing commodities, falling 6.0% and 4.9% respectively.

Looking back over the last year, gold stocks are the clear winner, gaining 46.4%. Palladium is up 5.1%, and long bonds are up just 1.0%. All other assets are lower by double digits, led by crude oil, which in spite of its gains over the last few weeks, is still down 64.4%. European stocks are the runner-up, trading 40.8% below their prices of one year ago.

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Weekly Update 8 May 2020

National currencies and bonds were mostly lower, stocks moved higher, and cryptocurrencies and commodities were mixed. The largest gains were in crude oil, which rose 24.3%, and Bitcoin, which gained 9.9%. The worst losses were in palladium, which fell 7.4%, and the TLT 20+ year bond fund, which declined 3.3%.

The Canadian Dollar outperformed other national currencies by closing the week unchanged. The Euro was the worst performer, falling 2.3%. The US Dollar finished in the middle of the pack, off 1.0%. Short term US treasuries did slightly better, falling 0.9%, while long term bonds got hammered, dropping 3.3%.

Bitcoin was the week's second best performer, rising to a high of 181.6 grams on Thursday before settling back to close at 179.7 grams, up 9.9%. Ethereum had a tougher time, falling early in the week to 3.75 grams on Wednesday, then rallying to close at 3.89 grams, down 1.6%.

Stocks had a good week, led higher by the S&P 500 which gained 2.4%. The Euro STOXX under-performed, adding just 0.4%. Gold stocks rose 2.2%.

Commodities were a mixed bag. Crude oil continued to be volatile, this time to the upside, soaring 24.3% to close at 451 mg per barrel. Precious metals fell, as palladium declined 7.4%, platinum lost 2.0% and silver gave up 0.1%.

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Weekly Update 1 May 2020

Most assets were higher; only the commodities showed significant losses. Palladium and silver fell the most, dropping 1.8% and 1.4% respectively. Bitcoin rose 19.5%, and crude oil rebounded strongly, gaining 18.3%. Ethereum also showed strength, adding 15.2%.

The Euro was the strongest national currency, gaining 3.6%; the Chinese Yuan was the least strong, rising 1.3%. The US and Canadian Dollars rose 1.8% each. Bonds under-performed cash; long term treasuries were unchanged, and short term bonds gained 1.7%.

Cryptocurrencies had a great week. Bitcoin ended the prior week at 136.9 grams and worked its way steadily higher, ending this week at 163.5 grams, up 19.5%. Ethereum followed a similar path, ending up 15.2%. The smaller cryptos generally didn't do as well; DASH for instance (not in table) finished up 3.4%.

The Japanese Nikkei led the way higher for equities, rising 4.2%. Gold stocks under-performed, adding 1.3%. US stocks (the Dow Industrials and S&P 500) rose 1.5% each.

Crude oil started the week by falling to 227 mg on Tuesday (about 6.4% above the all-time low set the week before), then rallied sharply to close at 363 mg, up 18.3% for the week. Palladium, silver and copper were the only assets to close lower; palladium finished down 1.8% and Silver closed down 1.4%. Platinum rose 2.0%.

Over the last year, gold stocks have been the outstanding performer, adding 36.8%, and outshining even the cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin is up "just" 24.9%). Crude oil is far and away the worst performer; even after a strong recovery this week, it is still down 76.4% from one year ago.

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Weekly Update 24 Apr 2020

Cryptocurrencies advanced, national currencies continued to decline, and stocks, bonds, and commodities were mixed but mostly lower. Coffee fell the most, dropping 9.3%, outpacing even crude oil, which declined a further 8.5%. Gold stocks made the largest gains, rising 12.0%.

The British Pound (not in table) led the national currency declines, falling 2.7%. The worst performers in the table were the Euro, down 2.1%, and the Chinese Yuan, off 1.9%. The Japanese Yen outperformed, giving up 1.3%. US Dollar cash and 1-3 year USD Bonds each declined 1.4%, while long term treasury bonds gained 0.4%.

Bitcoin dropped hard on Monday, to a low of 126.9 grams, then climbed through the rest of the week to finish at 136.9 grams, up 5.0%. Ethereum didn't experience much of a downdraft on Monday, but did rise as the week progressed, finishing up 8.8%.

The only rising equity asset was the HUI gold stock index, which beat all other asset classes this week, gaining 12.0%. The Japanese Nikkei index had the worst losses, falling 4.4%. The US S&P 500 slid 2.7%, the smallest loss among the major markets.

Cotton was the only commodity in the black, rising a respectable 4.0%. Coffee had the largest loss of any asset this week, falling 9.3%. Crude crashed on Monday, with the May futures contract actually going negative. I have chosen to switch to the June contract to get a more realistic view of the price, but even that cratered to a new all-time low of 213 mg per barrel, 37% below the previous week's close of 336 mg. Over the course of the week crude recovered somewhat, ending at 307 mg, down 8.5%.

Lack of demand due to government-mandated lockdowns, a shortage of storage facilities, and price wars between the oil producing nations — all of whom are desperate for revenues — will continue to impact this market for some time; and the impacts will extend into the broader economy as closures, bankruptcies, and defaults grow.

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Weekly Update 17 Apr 2020 Oil Crash!

Cryptocurrencies advanced, while national currencies, stocks, bonds, and commodities were mixed. Crude oil plummeted again, closing down 20.3% to a new all-time low. Gasoline, diesel and natural gas (not in table) also made new all-time lows this week, as did copper. Ethereum made the largest gains, rising 7.6%.

The Japanese Yen advanced 0.2% but all other national currencies closed lower. The biggest drops were in the Canadian Dollar, off 1.3%, and the Euro, down 1.2%. The US Dollar fell 0.7%, as did SHY, the short term treasury bond fund. The TLT long term bond fund rose 0.7%.

Cryptocurrencies fell early in the week, hitting their lows on Wednesday the 15th, then rose to finish the week in the black. Bitcoin fell to 120.2 grams, then recovered to close at 130.4 grams, up 2.6%. Ethereum saw a low of 2.77 grams before rising to end the week at 3.15 grams, up 7.6%.

Stock markets were mostly higher, although the Euro STOXX50 closed down 1.3% and the British FTSE (not in table) fell 1.4%. Gold stocks continued to show the most upside, rising 4.3%. The S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 indexes added 2.3% each.

The big fireworks were once again in the oil patch, as crude dropped 20.3% to close at 336 mg per barrel. This slide continued and intensified over the weekend, and the May futures contract closed today (Monday the 20th) at an astounding MINUS 694 mg per barrel. It looks like the producers are going to be paying refiners to haul away their oil! Obviously, this isn't a tenable situation… but as the old saying goes, the best cure for low prices is low prices. Platinum outperformed, gaining 5.4%. Copper fell to a new all-time low before bouncing back to end the week up 2.4%.

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Weekly Update 10 Apr 2020

Stocks moved higher, national currencies and bonds declined, and cryptocurrencies and commodities were mixed. Crude oil continued to be volatile, giving up most of last week's gains by closing down 22.9%. Gold stocks were the biggest winner, rising 11.5%.

National currencies all fell. The Japanese Yen and the US Dollar fell the most, giving up 4.0% each. The British Pound (not in table) outperformed, dropping 2.4%. The best performer in the table was the Chinese Yuan, off 2.6%. Short term bonds tracked USD cash, dropping 4.0%. The long term bond fund TLT did much worse, closing down 5.8%.

Bitcoin worked its way higher early in the week, peaking at 138.4 grams on Wednesday, then collapsed on Thursday and Friday, ending the week at 127.1 grams, down 2.1%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, peaking at 3.26 grams on Wednesday, but fell much less and ended at 2.93 grams, up 7.0%.

Stocks had their week in the sun, as all indexes I track moved higher. In fact, the week's 1st, 2nd and 3rd place performers were all equities. Top honors went to the HUI gold stock index, which finished up 11.5%. US stocks rounded out the top 3, as the Dow Industrials rose 8.1% and the S&P 500 gained 7.6%. The Japanese Nikkei under-performed the other indexes, but still added a striking 5.0%.

Crude oil fell 22.9%, giving back nearly all of the prior week's gains and closing at 415 mg per barrel, 7.4% above its all-time low. Other parts of the energy complex, including retail gasoline and US natural gas are also near their all-time lows. Cotton was the best performing commodity, rising 2.4%; the only other commodity in the black was silver, which closed up 1.2%.

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Weekly Update 3 Apr 2020

Cryptocurrencies, bonds and gold stocks were in the black, major stock indexes declined, and national currencies and commodities were mixed. The wildest ride was in crude oil, which hit a new all-time low of 386 mg per barrel on Monday, then began rising. On Thursday and Friday it shot higher, finishing the week at 546 mg, up 32.1%. The largest losses were in Japanese stocks, which dropped 8.1%, and palladium, down 4.8%.

The weakest national currency was the Euro, closing down 2.2%. The Chinese Yuan was strongest, rising 0.8%. US Dollar cash added 0.3%, but was outperformed by its bonds, as the short term SHY gained 0.4% and the long term TLT rose 0.9%.

Bitcoin fell early in the week, hitting a low of 113.9 grams on Sunday, then rallied through the rest of the week to close at 129.8 grams, up 4.3%. Ethereum followed a similar path, ending up 6.4%. Not all cryptos rose, however. For example, DASH (not in table) closed last week at 1.33 grams; like BTC and ETH, hit its low of 1.17 grams on Sunday and climbed through the week, but didn't manage to recover all of its early losses and ended at 1.30 grams, down 2.2%.

Gold stocks were the only rising equities as the HUI index gained 3.5%. As mentioned above, the Japanese Nikkei suffered the largest fall, dropping 8.1%. The European STOXX50 came in second, declining 4.5%. US stocks "outperformed" as the S&P 500 fell just 1.8%.

Commodities were mostly lower; the only exceptions were crude oil – which spiked 32.1% – and silver, which managed a 0.8% gain. The worst performers were palladium, which fell 4.8%, and platinum which declined 3.5%.

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Weekly Update 27 Mar 2020

Cryptocurrencies, national currencies and bonds fell, equities rose, and commodities were mixed. The largest gains and losses were all in commodities, with copper, crude oil, cotton and gasoline making new all-time lows. The largest gains were in palladium and platinum; they rose 27.3% and 11.7% respectively. Cotton took the biggest hit, falling 12.8%. Crude oil continued to collapse, dropping 12.6%.

National currencies all moved lower, led by the Chinese Yuan (down 7.9%) and the US Dollar (off 7.6%). The best performing currency was the British Pound (not in table) which fell just 2.8%. Bonds outperformed cash, as the short term SHY dropped 7.4% and the long term TLT declined 2.8%.

Bitcoin fell 3.6%, but outperformed all the national currencies in the table. On Sunday it fell to a low of 128.7 grams, then recovered to a high of 130.8 on Tuesday before sinking gradually to a close of 124.4 grams. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, dropping 6.8%.

Equities had their time in the sun this week. The Japanese Nikkei index led the charge higher, gaining 11.4%. US indexes under-performed; the S&P 500 rose 1.9% and the Dow Industrials added 4.3%. Gold stocks gained 7.9%.

Commodities were crazy again this week. Cotton and crude oil were the biggest losers, falling 12.8% and 12.6% respectively, and ending the week at new all-time lows. Copper and US retail gasoline (not in table) also hit new all-time lows this week. On the other side of the coin, palladium and platinum were the best performing of all assets in the table, rising 27.3% and 11.7% respectively. Silver (up 4.7%) was the only other commodity in the black, making a clean sweep for the precious metals.

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