Most stocks were higher this week, while currencies, bonds, and commodities were mixed. As has been the case for the last few weeks, commodities were the most volatile assets, with crude oil showing the largest gains (up 5.7%) while coffee and palladium (off 3.3% each) had the largest losses.

The USD and CNY were the strongest currencies, up 0.9% each. The Canadian dollar was the weakest government-issued currency, off 0.9%. Bitcoin was weakest of all, down 1.9% to 10.9 grams, exactly where it was one month ago.

Among equities, only the HUI gold stocks, which fell 1.3%, were lower. Japanese stocks showed the biggest gains, rising 1.8%, followed by the S&P 500 and Euro STOXX, which gained 1.2% apiece. Bonds were mixed, with the short term SHY lagging USD cash (rising 0.7% while cash rose 0.9%) and the long term TLT falling 0.7% (not too surprising after the prior week's blockbuster 3.3% gain).

Despite crude oil's big rise, most other commodities were lower, led by coffee and palladium, and followed by silver, which fell 2.2% to 0.411 grams. Platinum was down 0.7% while copper broke even for the week, and cotton managed a 0.1% gain.

Looking through the charts this week, platinum and Bitcoin strike me as offering the most attractive risk/reward profiles. Silver needs to break out above its 2015 high of 0.45 grams to become technically attractive. Gold stocks have had a great run so far this year, but seem to be struggling at these levels, and may be due for a bit of a pullback before moving higher to test resistance around 6.5 grams. Most other stocks, bonds and currencies seem overvalued, especially the USD and its derivatives.

With the economic instabilities caused by extended ZIRP and NIRP, and the political instabilities of the upcoming US elections and the BREXIT vote, it makes more sense than ever to focus on reducing counter party risk. Gold, silver, platinum and Bitcoin are excellent ways to do this: gold for preservation of capital, platinum and silver for low risk profit potential, and Bitcoin (with careful position sizing) for portability, instant worldwide electronic transfer, and the potential for huge gains (though with a risk of total loss, as well.)

I will be returning from my Caribbean sailing adventure this week, and look forward to elaborating on these themes and answering your questions in the coming weeks. Thanks for your patience and support!

Priced in Gold Weekly Summary

Click for PDF version

Currencies, bonds and most stocks were higher this week, while commodities were mixed. Coffee (up 6.4%) was the strongest asset class, continuing it's climb from last week. Crude oil was the next strongest, rising 5.4%, and more than recovering from the prior week's decline. The biggest losses were in copper, off 1.6%, and platinum, which fell 1.0%.

Currencies were all higher, led by the Canadian Dollar, which rose 2.2%, partially offsetting last week's drop. The USD was in second place, gaining 1.8%. The weakest currencies were the JPY, up 0.1% and the CNY, which gained 0.3%. Bitcoin was in the middle of the pack, up 0.8% for the week.

Among equities, only the HUI gold stocks were lower, falling 0.3%. Japanese stocks showed the biggest gains, rising 2.0%, followed by the S&P 500, which gained 1.3%. Bonds outperformed most stocks, with the short term SHY tracking USD cash and the long term TLT adding 3.3% for the week – the largest gain outside of the volatile commodity sector.

Once again, commodities showed both the biggest gains and the biggest losses for the week. Silver bucked the downward trend in the metals, rising 0.5% to close at 0.42 grams per ounce.

US stocks are hovering on the edge of a long-term sell signal. The last sell signal was in October of 2001 with the DJIA at 946 grams, and lasted until Feb-2013 at 261 grams. Since then, the Dow climbed to a high of 523 grams, and sits today near 430, just 0.7% above its 36 month moving average. Platinum, which is still trading near its all-time lows, but has been in an uptrend since mid January, offers a much better risk/reward ratio with none of the counter-party risk of stocks, bonds, and government-issued currencies.

Priced in Gold Weekly Summary

Click for PDF version

Filed under monetary universe by  #

Most asset classes were lower this week. The only exceptions were coffee, up 2.2%, Bitcoin, which rose 0.9%, TLT long bonds, up 0.8%, and platinum, which gained 0.4%. Cotton (down 7.2%) and copper (off 5.9%) were the weakest asset classes.

The government-issued currencies were all lower. The Canadian Dollar was weakest, falling 3.0%. The Japanese Yen was relatively strong, dropping just 0.1%, followed by the Euro, off 0.2%, and the USD, which fell 0.3%.

Stocks were all lower, led by the Japanese Nikkei, which lost 3.9%, followed closely by the HUI gold stocks, which fell 3.4%, and the European STOXX, which gave up 2.8%. US stocks dropped the least, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling just 0.4%.

As mentioned earlier, commodities showed both the biggest gains and the biggest losses for the week. Silver lost 3.3%, while crude oil gave back 3.0%, pull backs from the large gains they have made over the last month. This is even more true of gold stocks, which despite this week's drop, are still up 18.3% from a month ago.

I have recently received some excellent questions from readers, and am working on posts to answer them. We are still out cruising (currently docked in beautiful Clarence Town on Long Island in the Bahamas) so posts and updates to the site may be sporadic… Thank you for your patience!

Priced in Gold Weekly Summary

Click for PDF version

Filed under monetary universe by  #

This week's trading saw currencies and bonds lower, stocks mixed, and commodities mostly higher. The largest gains were in crude oil, up 6.9%, palladium, up 6.2%, and silver, which rose 4.9%. The weakest asset was the long treasury bond (TLT) which fell 3.9%.

Bitcoin made the only gains in the currency space, rising a further 3.0%. Of the government-issued currencies, the Canadian Dollar was once again the strongest, falling just 0.2%. USD cash fell 1.3%. The weakest currency was the Japanese Yen, which dropped 2.5%.

Stocks were mixed, led by the Japanese Nikkei 225, which rose 1.7%, and the European STOXX, which gained 1.5%. US stocks dropped, with the S&P 500 falling 0.8%. Gold stocks held onto last week's gains, rising 0.8% to close at 5.1 grams.

All commodities were higher except coffee, which gave up 1.5%. As mentioned above, crude, palladium and silver were the week's biggest gainers. Copper and Cotton also made good gains, rising 3.8% and 3.7% respectively.

Priced in Gold Weekly Summary

Click for PDF version

This was a great week for investors, as every asset class I track ended the week higher! Silver, which rose 7.7%, and Japanese Stocks, which gained 7.0%, led the rise. Currencies generally, and the EUR and CNY in particular, were the weakest asset classes.

Bitcoin made the largest gains in the currency space, rising 3.2%. Of the government-issued currencies, the Canadian Dollar was the strongest, gaining 2.8%. USD cash rose 1.0%. Short term bonds also rose 1.0%, but the longer term TLT trailed cash, gaining 0.9%.

Stocks all did very well. The Japanese Nikkei 225 led the field, rising 7.0%, while the European STOXX gained 4.9%, despite (or perhaps because of) the Euro currency's weak showing.

Metals dominated commodity gains. In addition to silver's big rise, palladium (up 6.8%), copper (up 4.2%) and platinum (up 4.1%) were also strong. The weakest commodities were cotton, which rose 0.9%, and crude oil, which gained 2.6%.

The HUI gold stocks continued their rise, ending the week up 3.1%, and closing above 5.0 grams for the first time since 2014.

Priced in Gold Weekly Summary

Click for PDF version

Please note that I will be sailing from Panama to Jamaica and onward to the Bahamas this week and next. While I'm at sea I have very limited internet access, so chart updates and the weekly commentary may be delayed a bit.

This was a rough week for most asset classes. The only exceptions were crude oil, up 5.7% to recover most of last week's losses, the HUI gold stock index, which added 5.6% to the prior week's rally, and the Japanese Yen, which gained 1.4%. The biggest drops were in commodities, with coffee (off 7.3%), palladium (down 5.9%) and copper (dropping 5.7%) leading the way lower.

After JPY, the strongest government-issued currency was the Chinese Yuan (down 0.4%). The weakest were the Canadian Dollar (off 2.9%) and the US Dollar, which fell 2.1%. Bonds also dropped, with the Long Term Treasury Fund TLT (down 0.9%) and the short term bond fund SHY (off 1.9%), but both outperformed USD cash.

Stocks (other than the gold miners) were lower, led by the European STOXX (off 3.7%) and the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500, which fell 3.3% each. Japanese stocks, helped by the strong Yen, dropped the least, down 0.8%.

While crude oil recovered most of last week's losses, the metals gave up far more than they gained last week. Cotton, which had a huge rally last week, held on to most of these gains, closing this week off just 0.7%

Gold stocks continue their rise, but are still at historically low prices, offering a great buying opportunity.

Priced in Gold Weekly Summary

Click for PDF version

0

This was a good week for currencies, bonds, and most stocks, but mixed for commodities. The best performing asset was Bitcoin, which rose 4.3% – more than making up for last weeks decline.  The next best was cotton, which gained 4.0%. The weakest asset classes were gold stocks, off 2.7%, and coffee, which dropped 2.2%.

The strongest government-issued currencies were the US Dollar (up 3.0%) and the Chinese Yuan (which rose 2.8%). Bonds were also strong, with the Long Term Treasury Fund TLT turning in the weeks third-best performance, rising 3.3%. The short term bond fund SHY rose 2.9%, but failed to keep up with USD cash.

Stocks (gold miners aside) were all higher, led by the Nikkei (up 3.1%) and the Dow Jones Industrials, which rose 2.4%. Once again, the Euro STOXX FEZ was the weakest, rising just 0.1%.

The week’s bad news was concentrated in the commodity area. In addition to the drop in coffee, silver fell 1.8% and crude oil was down 1.3%. Cotton was the only really strong commodity, but copper and platinum managed small increases.

Although gold stocks finished the week lower, at 4.4g they are still well above their new support at 4.2g, and I think they represent a good value here.

Priced in Gold Weekly Summary

Click for PDF version

1

A great week for all asset classes except Bitcoin, which fell 1.6%. The best performing asset was coffee, which rose 7.8%, followed by gold stocks, which gained 4.4% (more on this below). Aside from Bitcoin, the weakest asset classes were platinum, up 0.8%, and cotton and the USD, each of which gained 1.0%.

The strongest government-issued currencies were the Canadian Dollar (up 3.2%) and the Japanese Yen (which rose 2.9%).

Stocks were all higher. The DJIA rose 3.3%, while the S&P 500 added 2.4%. The Euro STOXX FEZ was the weakest, rising 1.2%. 

As mentioned earlier, gold stocks led the rise in equities. The HUI closed the week at 4.5g, solidly above the 4.2g resistance level I have been watching for the last year. This level was first broken 2 weeks ago, and has been tested twice since then, holding each time. Gold stocks are also trading well above their 200 day moving average.  This could be a good time to add exposure to this asset class.

Although Bitcoin is down for the week, it is still the only asset which is higher today than it was a year ago. It looks like it might be joined by the HUI gold stocks soon, however!

Priced in Gold Weekly Summary

Click for PDF version

0

This was a bad week for currencies and bonds, but a mixed week for stocks and commodities. The best performing asset class was palladium, which rose 7.3%, followed by crude oil, which gained 5.2%. The weakest asset was Bitcoin, down 6.6%, followed by long term bonds (TLT), off 5.3%.

The weakest government-issued currencies were the Yen (down 4.5%) and the Euro (off 4.3%). The “strongest” was the Chinese Yuan, which fell only 1.5%.

US stocks were down (the DJIA lost 1.9%, the S&P 500 lost 1.4%) but European and Japanese equities rose 0.4% each. Gold stocks were the strongest equities, with the HUI rising 2.2% to close at 4.2g, a critical resistance level.

Other metals were mixed, with copper up 2.9% while silver fell 2.3% and platinum dropped 0.7%.

Note that every asset class except Bitcoin is lower today than it was a year ago – particularly palladium and crude oil, which are off 37.5% and 34.5% respectively, even after their recent rallies.

Priced in Gold Weekly Summary

Click for PDF version

0

A good week for stocks; a mixed week for commodities and currencies. The best performing asset class, by far, was crude oil, which rose 11.0% – but with crude’s weak performance during the first 6 weeks of the year, it is still sitting near its all-time lows. The weakest asset was cotton, down 3.8%, followed by palladium, off 2.6%.

Gold stocks slightly outperformed the S&P 500, rising 2.2% to the S&P’s 2.0% gain.

Bitcoin was the strongest currency, up 2.4%, followed by the Canadian Dollar, which rose 2.1%. The Chinese Yuan fell 1.3%, followed by the Euro, which lost 0.6%.  Treasury bonds underperformed USD cash, with TLT falling 0.1% while the USD rose 0.3%.

Priced in Gold Weekly Summary

Click for PDF version