So when looking at your charts, in your opinion, would it be sound to buy when something is historically low in terms of gold grams? And what about gold itself? Is there a chart that determines when to buy gold?
The huge winner last week was the Swiss Franc. The Swiss central bank did a sudden about-face last Thursday, dropping its peg to the Euro, and the CHF rose 13.4% for the week while all other major currencies fell 3%-6%.The only other asset category in the black was the HUI gold stock index, which is now hovering just below its 200 day moving average and resistance at about 5 grams. Watch closely to see if this is really a breakout to the upside or just a dead cat bounce.
Among the losers, bitcoin fell the most spectacularly, dropping 30% to close at 5.2 g. This is solidly below the uptrend line I have been tracking, and unless there is a fairly quick recovery to the 7 g level, it certainly lowers the probability of my forecast for 1 BTC buying 1 gold ounce by the end of 2015. But keep in mind that in November of 2013 bitcoin went from 4.9 g to 30.2 g, and briefly traded over 1 ounce. So there is plenty of time left for this forecast to work itself out, and if the pace of growth has slackened from the exponential rate of the past few years, it may simply take a bit longer to come true. If you've been waiting for an opportunity to buy bitcoin, I would consider taking a small position here, but waiting for an uptrend to become clear before making a substantial bet – and even then, I would keep position size small enough that a total loss won't exceed your pain threshold.
Although they fell 3.1% last week, long term government bonds (represented by TLT) outperformed large cap stocks. And over the last year, they have gained 26.6%, far outpacing most other asset categories. So far, they remain in a solid uptrend.
Although the USD has shown a lot of strength over the last couple of years, that strength now seems to be ebbing. Gold continues to be valued as a safe haven in these troubled times – Russia and China continue to add massive amounts of physical gold to their reserves every month. The fact that physical metal has no counter-party risk is critical: the current unstable financial system could easily break down, causing a wave of bankruptcies that would render many paper assets worthless, even if you placed your trades on the winning side.
I think it makes sense to accumulate a solid core position of physical metals, primarily gold, that will weather any such firestorm. Real assets like productive farmland also make sense. Smaller speculative positions in Bitcoin, select gold stocks, and even long term US government bonds can provide growth potential for the portfolio.
From the beautiful Bahamas, I wish you the very best for 2015. The year just ended has seen tremendous gains in a few areas including large cap US stocks, coffee, and long term treasury bonds – while currencies, gold stocks, and most commodities saw big declines.
The USD is little changed for the year overall, but the gap between its market value and its expected value continues to widen as the half-life value falls away. It remains to be seen whether this marks the end of inflationary policy in the US, but I seriously doubt it. A more likely interpretation is that the USD is heavily overvalued, and a return to the mean is in our future. But whether that return will be gradual or sudden is yet to be determined. With economic conditions in Europe, Japan and Russia deteriorating, and with China possibly entering a slow-down, the US and its dollar look very attractive to investors world-wide, and they are bidding up prices. This could take some time to unwind, though a shock to the system could trigger an avalanche of uncertainty at any point.
If you have profits in stocks, bonds, and USD cash, I suggest taking some of them off the table and banking them in physical gold. Be sure to set trailing stops on the remaining positions so that you can "let your profits run" while being protected in case things reverse.
As I am traveling quite a bit for the next month or two, site updates may not be too frequent, but I will do my best to keep the charts up to date and alert you to any major events in the markets.
I look forward to working with you in the year ahead, and once I get back from my travels, I plan to make improvements to the site and offer new services to help you grow your net worth "the old fashioned way": as measured in gold. Please let me know if there are specific services you would find valuable, such as tracking trailing stops priced in gold, reports on specific investing strategies designed to grow your gold, news reports from the priced in gold perspective, etc. Your ideas and suggestions are extremely valuable.
Thank you for being a part of the Priced in Gold family, and have a great year in 2015!
PPS – Seth Lipsky of the NY Sun nails it with a great article on the recent "new highs" in the Dow. Worth reading if you haven't already seen it!
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The International Monetary Fund created the SDR in the late 1960s to supplement the gold and other currencies held by countries as their reserves. The value of 1 SDR was initially defined as the same amount of gold as 1 USD. At the time, the USD was convertible into gold, so most countries chose to hold the bulk of their reserves in dollars instead of gold.
In 1969, tight US monetary policy lead to fears that there wouldn't be enough US dollars available for reserve holdings. These concerns lead to the first issuance of SDRs in 1970. As the USD ceased to be convertible into gold in 1971, the SDR's value was changed from a specific amount to gold to a weighted basket of major reserve currencies, which today includes the USD, EUR, JPY and GBP.
As you can see on the chart, the SDR and USD were very close in value in 1985, but the SDR has held up a bit better than the USD in the years since then. In 2014Q3, the USD is worth about 25% of its 1985 value, while the SDR retains about 40% of its 1985 value.
There has been talk recently of making the SDR a more important part of the world's monetary system, possibly even replacing the USD as the world's reserve currency. I don't know how this will play out, but I will be tracking the SDR on it's own page going forward. You can read more about the SDR in this report from 2009, and see the details of its current makeup and value on the IMF's SDR page.
This week, government currencies and bonds were higher, while stocks and commodities were mixed. Long term treasuries, represented by TLT, had some of the largest gains both for the last week and the last month, but it may be time to sell – more on that later in this update. Bitcoin and the HUI gold stocks have been the weakest asset classes for the last week and the last month, with silver and platinum also hit hard. Coffee continues to be one of the strongest performers, over the last week, month and year.
Gold stocks, which were looking promising a few months ago, have been unable to breach the 6 gram level, and since mid-August have collapsed. They closed this week at 4.94g, the lowest level for this year, and just above last year's low of 4.86g, which was the lowest level seen in 14 years. Silver also continues to decline, hitting a low of 0.436g on Wednesday before recovering to close the week at 0.442g – its lowest levels since 2009. Platinum, although hit hard during the last month, is virtually unchanged from a year ago.
TLT, the 20 year treasury bond fund, is now at the top of its rising channel. Although it certainly could go higher from here (as it did in mid-2013), I would be looking to take some or all of my profits off the table at this point. Aggressive traders might even want to sell TLT calls or scale into a short position if the price continues to rise above the channel line.
These bonds have done very well, doubling in value over the last three years – almost matching the performance of the Dow and S&P 500. But that rise has been a series of ups and downs, zig-zagging along an upward sloping channel. With the economy balanced on a knife-edge between inflation and deflation, the Fed ending it's QE program, and interest rates starting to rise, I think the most likely scenario is a continuation of that pattern: a return to the lower limit of the channel.
WIth all the uncertainty in the world, from ISIS in the middle east to Ebola in Dallas, from riots in Hong Kong to Russian troops in the Ukraine, the US Dollar has been percieved as the safest haven, and its price (and the prices of US stocks and bonds) has been rising as investors seek a secure home for their capital. In fact, the USD is now about twice as valuable as its half-life curve suggests it should be.
Could it go even higher? Of course it could! Does this mean that the half-life curve has outlived its usefulness – that we are now in a New Era where the USD will continue to rise in value, perhaps to pre-2000 or even pre-1933 prices? I sincerely doubt it. None of the fundamentals have changed… Debt is still sky-high and growing at a harrowing pace, and has to be serviced, requiring an ever expanding quantity of money. Even as some central banks reduce their rates of money creation, others are just beginning to crank up the presses to fight a perceived deflationary threat. All that uncertainty is not going away. And the next crisis, whatever form it may take, will probably shake the foundations of the fiat currency world and refocus attention on real money: gold.
This week, most asset categories were higher with coffee and crude oil making the biggest gains; the exceptions were copper and silver. Over the last month, currencies, bonds, and stocks (other than mining shares) were lower, while commodities were mixed. Government currencies are generally lower today than they were a year ago, especially the JPY and CAD, although the EUR gained slightly. Over the last year, bitcoin, coffee and the S&P 500 were the largest gainers, while cotton and crude oil declined the most.
Gold stocks may be forming a "head and shoulders" bottom, but I would like to see a close above 6 g before becoming bullish, and a close above 6.5 g would be much more convincing. Silver, although higher than it was a year ago, continues to languish near 0.5 g/oz with no signs of recovery in sight.
TLT, the 20 year treasury bond fund, continues to trade in its rising channel, and seems to be holding above support at 2.6g (and above its 200 day moving average as well).
This week had every single asset category showing a loss. The smallest drop was in the Canadian Dollar, while the largest drops were in coffee, down 9.0%, and gold stocks, off 3.9%. Meanwhile, the mainstream media has been full of articles trumpeting new all-time highs for the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 stocks. Of course, these are meaningless statements, as the dollars used to define these markets are heavily manipulated by the Federal Reserve. As the chart below shows, stocks in the real world are nowhere near new highs; in fact, despite a very good year in 2013, they are about 30% below their 2007 highs, and a whopping 70% down from their 2001 highs.
In other news:
Despite a 2.1% drop this week, the Long bonds are still safely inside their rising channel. If you own TLT, I'd continue to hold it.
Gold stocks may be forming a "head and shoulders" bottom, but I would like to see a close above 6 g before becoming bullish, and a close above 6.5 g would be much more convincing. Silver continues to languish near its multi-year lows with no signs of recovery in sight.
Note that gold stocks and silver are the only asset classes that are lower now than they were a year ago. Their "rubber bands" are stretched really tight; when they begin to recover, they could go ballistic… but there is no telling how long that might take to happen, and it is entirely possible that they could go even lower before they begin their recoveries.
This week's biggest winner was gold stocks, up 3.9%, followed by cotton and copper, which rose 2.9% and 2.2% respectively. The biggest drop was in Bitcoin, down 4.6%, followed by crude oil which lost 3.7%. Government currencies, stocks, and short term bonds were all down slightly for the week, while long term bonds gained 1.0%.
The silver fix was 0.459 g/oz on Thursday, a low not seen since August of 2010, but silver recovered on Friday to finish the week unchanged. I don't think silver has seen it's bottom yet. For the best silver market analysis I know of, visit the Monetary Metals website and read their post on Gold and Silver Speculation and the weekly Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report.
Long bonds have bounced strongly off the lower margin of their trading channel, giving a nice profit to anyone who took my suggestion back in mid-March to go long TLT. There could still be more upside, but keep a trailing stop in place, just in case!
A quick comment on Bitcoin – although this week and the last month were not good for Bitcoin, it is still up 260% over the last year – far outperforming all other asset classes. Bitcoin's long term exponential uptrend line is currently at about 2.5g, so Bitcoin could lose 77% of it's value from here, and still be in a strong uptrend. My guess is still that we will see parity with gold by the end of 2015.
Checking the charts, conventional equities are now heading into bear market territory, with the Dow and Nikkei closing the week solidly below their 200 day moving averages, while the S&P 500 bounces around right at its 200 dma.
Long bonds are trading at the lower margin of their up-trending channel – there may be a low risk speculation buying them here; if they stay true to form and bounce higher, the profits could be excellent, but if they start to fall, make a hasty exit.
Gold stocks have been trading above their 200 day average for about a month now, and have tested it as support several times. They are starting to look very attractive as a speculation. Once they close above 6.5 grams, and retest that level as support, I will consider them to be in a bull market.
Bitcoin is trading sideways, performing a bit worse than the USD and EUR, but a bit better than the CAD for the week. Trading volumes have been falling the last two weeks and are now very light; I expect volatility to increase when that trend reverses.
This week saw rallies in Coffee and Cotton, and a decline in Copper and long term bonds.
Bitcoin continues to hold at a fairly high level despite the failure of Mt Gox, once the largest Bitcoin exchange, but recently marginalized by problems with withdrawals of bitcoins and government currencies. It will be interesting to see what the underlying causes of these difficulties turn out to be – fraud, technical difficulties, hacker attacks, or something else entirely. In the meantime, the rest of the world's exchanges continue to operate smoothly. One of the key advantages of Bitcoin is that the users act as their own banks: there is no need to trust third parties to hold your money! By keeping your funds in your own wallet, you eliminate the risk of a third part failure like that of Mt. Gox.
I haven't seen anything that changes my opinion that one BTC will buy at least one ounce of gold by the end of 2015. As I have mentioned before, Bitcoin could fall a long way from these levels and still be in an exponential uptrend; but it is also true that it is highly speculative as an investment. So have fun with it, use it in everyday transactions (which is getting easier every day!) and don't let it become too large a position in your overall portfolio.