There has never been a better time to switch to gold. By that I mean to choose gold as your unit of account, your personal money. To hold your savings in gold. To measure your investment returns in gold. To keep your books in gold. In fact, it's not just a "good idea", it is vital to your future!

Why?

Because there is a market in money. All the world's currencies compete against one another. Each has a large "captive" user base, mostly in it's country of issue, but all are traded on exchanges, just like stocks. Traders who see a currency with weakness not yet reflected in its price will sell the weak one and buy something stronger. Although there can be price distortions, over time these tend to correct, and traders are rewarded for their insight.

Gold is one such currency, although it has no captive user base at the moment. The US dollar is another, with a large domestic user base and popularity around the world as central banks hold it in their reserves, individuals hold it for savings, entire countries use it as their means of exchange, and important commodities like crude oil are priced in it. Euros, Pounds, Renminbi, Yen, and many others also compete in this marketplace.

Gold is the strongest, safest form of money mankind has yet discovered. It has many uses, it is easily tested for purity and easily divided in convenient units. It does not rot, rust or corrode, it is rare enough that it takes real effort to obtain more of it, but not so rare that it cannot be had by anyone who wants to own some. Of course it is not perfect; nothing is! But for thousands of years people have been experimenting with various forms of money, and gold is the one form that has withstood the test of time, again and again.

Most people use the local brand of currency because it's easy. All the local banks use it, all the prices they see marked on the shelves when the go shopping use it. It is easy to obtain, easy to save, and easy to spend. In some countries, at some times, people have had little choice; use of the local currency was mandated by law. Holding or trading in foreign currencies without special permission from the government was a punishable offense. Often, taking the local currency out of the country in any meaningful amount was also a crime. In almost every country, "legal tender" laws force many types of transactions to be conducted using the local currency. You will need some, too; but just enough to facilitate your day to day transactions.

The last 30 years or so have been a time of fairly strong monetary freedom; people from all over the world have been able to own whatever currencies they wanted. They have been able to open accounts in other countries, to travel the world and exchange their home country cash for local cash or use their credit cards to make purchases when traveling, or from home over the Internet. Most have been able to own gold.

Storm signals are now flying, however – signaling the end of this period of relative freedom. Austerity measures, deficit reduction programs, tax increases, and new reporting requirements all point to a period of increasing government control and regulation. A period of increasing nationalism, of homeland security, of tightening borders. A period of diminishing freedom and privacy in many ways, but especially in terms of money and travel.

With a tip of the hat to The Daily Crux, I recommend this piece from the Expected Returns Blog:

There are certain periods of time in history when seemingly obscene prognistications are right. I believe we are in one of those times. It is at times like these that "conspiracy theorists" (whatever that means) become what I like to call "reality theorists." 

Economic shocks come from nowhere. One day the global economy is humming along; the next day it collapses. Crashes don't occur because the fundamentals suddenly change; they occur because the public at large recognizes the fundamentals and heads for the exit at the same time. What's crashing next is the public's confidence in governments across the Western world. You can guess how that will affect the price of gold.

And how it will affect freedom in general.

A great place to start is by dumping the local currency as your unit of account. Start thinking in gold terms, not in terms of the local funny money. But that is just the start.

If you do not own any physical gold, buy some now. Buy one little coin, even if it just one-tenth of an ounce. Hold it in your hand, put it somewhere safe, or carry it in your pocket, but get started.

If you do own some gold, think of it as your core savings position. Is it enough? Add to it until you can sleep well at night, knowing that whatever transpires in the markets overnight, when you wake up you will at least have that core position to work with. If you own stocks or other liquid assets that have been appreciating in gold terms, take some of your profits off the table and bank them as physical gold. If your stocks and other investments are declining in gold value, consider selling them and buying gold with the proceeds. You won't be making any money by doing this, but you will not be in a losing position, either. You will simply be holding the best, safest form of cash, keeping your powder dry until the time is right to invest in other assets that will appreciate in terms of gold.

You may want to diversify some of your savings into silver as well. Silver is more volatile than gold, and as it has significant industrial uses, and most of its production is as a side of-effect of base metal mining, its price is more strongly influenced by the state of the economy in general than is gold, which is primarily a monetary metal. Still, silver has a long monetary tradition, and because it is less rare than gold, it is more useful in smaller, everyday transactions. This is why the US issued silver dimes, quarters, half-dollars and dollars, but used gold for five, ten and twenty dollar coins.

Holding gold and silver is a great start, and provides you with a form of savings that is insulated from the devaluations and defaults of governments, both subtle and blatant. This will give you options and expand your freedom, but it is not enough. Money is a wonderful thing, but it is not the only thing, or even the most important thing! Think about what is most dear to you… and try to set up a framework that will give you options to maximize that.

Protect yourself from the coming blizzard of restrictions and regulations while there is still time to maneuver. You want to be able to decide where you will live, where you will travel, who you will associate with and do business with, as well as what money you will use, and where you will keep it. Having viable choices is what freedom is all about.

The key is to act before it is too late, before everyone else is rushing to the exits. Do not allow yourself to be lulled into a sleepy daze by the entertainment spread around you by the media. Do not drowse in the warmth of the water in the pot as it heats slowly toward the boiling point. Do not allow the other crabs in the pot to pull you back in if you decide the time has come to make a break for it.

Do it for yourself. Do it for your family. Do it for future generations. But get started now!

Subscriber Ian Shearer recently wrote to point out that although the site covers the price of Oil, the world's most traded commodity, we're missing the number 2 commodity, coffee! Given the number of espressos we make around here every day, that is an omission that had to be corrected.

And it has been!

The Coffee Chart shows a remarkably stable price since 2002, generally hovering in the area of 50 mg/lb. In 2005 the price almost doubled, peaking at 95.8 on March 17, but by December had fallen back to the mid-50s. Since 2006, the price of coffee has been gradually working it's way lower, putting in a recent low of 33.3 on June 8 and ending June at 41.

Coffee futures are quoted in USD, in the form of cents per pound. In 2002, the USD's value was about 100 mg of gold, making 1mg roughly equal to 1 US cent. For instance, on May 17, 2002, the price of coffee was 48.47 mg/lb or 48.40 cents/lb. But what a difference 8 years makes! Although coffee prices ended June 2010 at 41.055 mg/lb, down 15% from the May 2002 price, the "fun-house mirror" USD price ended June at 164.20, apparently up 239%.

Keep in mind that a pound of coffee is still a pound of coffee, and can be roasted and ground up to brew the same number of cups in 2010 as in 2002. A gram of gold is still a gram of gold, and can make the same fillings, or jewelry, or plate the same number of electrical contacts in 2010 as in 2002. In 2010 there is a slight shift in preference in favor of gold over coffee, but we're talking about 15%.

The US Dollar, on the other hand, has lost about 75% of it's purchasing power over the same time period, that is, it takes $4 today to buy what $1 bought in 2002. Holding onto dollars is playing with lighted matches! And measuring your investment performance in dollars virtually guarantees that you will have a mistaken impression of how well you are doing, and will make it virtually impossible to accurately judge when to buy and when to sell.

Don't be fooled! Always price in gold!

Filed under Coffee, Commodities, Food, monetary universe by  #

Today, in addition to relaxing with family and friends and planning a pyrotechnic orgy for this evening, I've been reading Thomas Jefferson's Declaration of Independence, and updating the charts here on the Priced in Gold site. I've also been listening to Harry Browne's "How to Rule Your World" audio course, which I highly recommend.

As a result of all of these activities I want to offer a suggestion: Choosing your own money is a great place to start your search for personal independence!

Money is the universal substitute for the other resources you will need to pursue the happiness and liberty you desire, and that pursuit is your unalienable right.

You must expend your limited resources to gain for yourself as much happiness as possible, and often this will be done through the use of money as an intermediary. Along the way, you will have to weigh alternatives, to see what the costs and benefits of various courses of action are, and money is often used to quantify these costs and benefits.

Be sure you are making the best decisions possible, by using the best form of money available to you… Through the centuries, gold has been chosen more often than any other form, because it is durable, divisible and cannot be created at whim.

Regardless of the character (or lack of it) of the currency in circulation around you, you can choose gold as your personal money, for use in reckoning accounts, measuring value, and saving for the future. Doing so will set you on a path to independence that would make our forefathers proud!

Filed under monetary universe by  #

Filed under Stocks, Video Podcast, monetary universe by  #

0

On May 31st, Dr. Marc Faber, one of my favorite economists and a very engaging speaker, gave a landmark presentation at the Mises Circle on Austrian Economics and Finance. In this talk, Dr. Faber details the coming economic catastrophe, and what to do about it.

Using gold pricing to get an accurate measure of your investment performance will enable you to do more than just survive the upheavals ahead – you will be able to make a fortune!

I urge you to watch the video, understand where the actions of governments and central banks are taking us, and most importantly, I urge you to look over your portfolio, to look over your life, and take action!

If you have questions or comments, send me an email, leave a comment, or call the Priced in Gold Hotline at 888-868-5656.

A subscriber recently sent me link to an article in the Wall Street Journal by Brett Arends titled "Why I Don't Trust Gold". This is the second part of a three part series, but as I write this, the third installment has not yet been published.

Although I agree with most of what he says, I would of course put it in different terms – for instance Mr. Arends says, "Gold is volatile. It's hard to value." and I would say, "The US Dollar is volatile. It's hard to value." Both statements are equivalent, depending only on whether you are valuing gold in terms of dollars, or dollars in terms of gold.

But the question is, which viewpoint will history record as the "right" one? On this score, I am completely convinced that he is wrong. There is NO example of ANY fiat money system EVER, in all of human history, that has not self-destructed. So in spite of his claim (in part one) that "It (gold) has a 'This time is different' story line", he is the one who is arguing that "it is different this time", not those who see gold as real money.

Of course the dollar can rally in value, even for decades at a time. But in the end, it will disappear like all the other attempts at a centrally planned and controlled currency, for the same reasons that centrally planned economies fail. When people are free to use anything they want for money, gold always seems to prevail. I don't think this time will be any different.

Filed under monetary universe, price of gold by  #

Filed under Video Podcast by  #

I think it's time we all switched to using gold as our unit of account, as the fiat currencies of the world continue to be consumed in a firestorm of inflationary "money" creation. Whether or not we hold actual physical gold (which we should, as our bedrock cash position) we should be seeking to own stuff that is rising in value in gold terms. The real problem is that the signals we get from investments priced in EUR, USD, JPY, etc. are being seriously distorted by the massive issuance of these currencies, resulting in investors continuing to hold them and even add to them, believing their value is rising when it is in fact falling.

US government bonds are a prime example – widely considered the safest investment in the world, and rising fairly steadily for years as interest rates drifted lower, they have in fact fallen to about half their 2002 value. Here are the details, using TLT, the 20 year T-Bond ETF as an example… In July of 2002, when the ETF was launched, you would have paid $82 per share for it. Over the years, you would have collected $29.71 in interest, and today you could sell each share for about $90. A nice, safe 46% return over 7.75 years, or 5% CAGR. But measured in gold grams, the picture is radically different. Each share cost 8.4 grams in 2002, and paid a total of 1.8 grams in interest over the years. Today, you could sell each share for about 2.5 grams – a 49% loss over the same 8 year period, for a -8.4% CAGR. I have created a chart of TLT in USD and gold, based on the "adjusted closing price" as calculated by Yahoo finance. Take a look at it to see what I'm talking about.
US Treasury Bonds in USD and Gold
And this is just the start of the collapse… as more dollars are created, bond buyers will begin to worry about the value of the dollars that will eventually be returned to them, and the interest they demand will skyrocket. This will create a double-whammy drop in bond prices as their value in dollars falls, and the value of each dollar falls as well.

Of course, just holding gold doesn't earn any profit (as measured in gold) but it doesn't lose value, either. There are plenty of investment strategies that have risen in gold value over that same period, but buying and holding most stock indices, bonds, real estate are not among them.

I'm working on a DVD series called "The Truth About Gold" that will detail some strategies for dramatically expanding your wealth, as measured in gold. I will be making a few copies available to early adopters on a pre-order basis; if you are interested, drop me an email at truth@pricedingold.com

I've recorded an expanded commentary on this topic as a podcast. You can download it or listen to it here:

Audio MP3

The news media is full of articles touting the Dow Jones Industrial Average close above 11,000 today. The chart below shows the index price in USD from 2006 to April of 2010.

In summary, prices had been rising since 2003, and began 2006 around the 11,000 level. They continued a relatively steady march to a new all-time high around 14,000 in the fall of 2007. The credit implosion of 2008 rapidly forced the index to a low around 6,500 in March of 2009, but since then it has been recovering strongly, returning to the 11,000 level today.

DJIA in USD from 1997-2010

This is the conventional story… but what is the truth?

The problem is that the Dow Index is measured in US Dollars, a highly volatile currency. As a result of the credit crisis, there has been tremendous creation of new money by the Federal Reserve to keep the monetary system afloat, causing a drastic reduction in value of the USD. In spite of this, there have been moments when the urgent need for US Dollars, to pay off debts and de-leverage, has forced the dollar's value higher, in a kind of "short squeeze", and occasionally problems in other countries have become so severe that the USD was seen as safe by comparison, increasing demand for it, and temporarily boosting it's value. (As Doug Casey recently observed, the US Dollar may be toilet paper, but at least it's three-ply!)

So when we remove the roller-coaster value of the USD from the picture, by pricing the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold, what do we see?

DJIA 2006-2010 in Gold grams

From 2006 to fall of 2007, instead of rising 27% from 11,000 to 14,000 the index actually went sideways, hovering around 600 gold grams. Instead of falling 53%, from 14,000 to about 6,500, it actually fell 63%, from 600 grams to 220 grams. From this low it quickly rebounded to the 300 gram level, where it has been for the last year.

Although it's dollar value has returned to the level seen in 2006 and mid-2008, it's true value, measured in gold, is half of it's 2006 level, and three-quarters of it's 2008 level. Stock prices have not risen at all for the last year. The US Dollar, and most other fiat currencies, have simply fallen in value due to central bank manipulations, creating the appearance – but not the substance – of recovery and growth.

So don't be fooled… Keep an eye on what your investments are really doing, by pricing them in gold!

Filed under Dow Jones Industrials, Economy, Stocks by  #

Here is a news item I found interesting, followed by my restatement of the story, priced in gold. You can also view a chart of net worth.

Americans' net worth rises for third straight quarter

Friday, March 12, 2010

Stock gains boost Americans' net worth

Americans regained more of their shrunken wealth last quarter, mainly because of gains in stock portfolios. The Federal Reserve reported Thursday that household net worth rose 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, to $54.2 trillion. Net worth rose 4.5 percent in the second quarter and 5.5 percent in the third. The value of stocks rose nearly 4 percent in the period, to $7.7 trillion. Higher home prices helped a bit: Real estate holdings edged up 0.2 percent.

Americans' net worth would have to rise 21 percent more to get back to its pre-recession peak of $65.9 trillion.

– Associated Press

===========================

Here's the story as priced in gold:

Americans' net worth falls for second quarter in a row

Friday, March 12, 2010

Currency losses gut Americans' net worth

Americans saw their wealth shrink again last quarter, mainly because of losses in the value of the dollar. The Federal Reserve reported Thursday that household net worth fell 8.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, to 1,526 tonnes of gold. Net worth had risen 2.5 percent in the second quarter and fallen 1 percent in the third. Aside from the second quarter's uptick, net worth has been falling every period since the third quarter of 2007. Falling home prices caused a major hit: Real estate holdings dropped 9.6 percent to 467 tonnes. The value of stocks fell 6.3 percent in the period, to 217 tonnes of gold. Underlying all of these drops is the continuing debasement of the US Dollar, as bogus "bailouts", "stimulus plans" and other reckless deficit spending take their toll.

Americans' net worth would have to rise 227 percent to get back to its pre-recession peak of 5,000 tonnes of gold.

– Associated Press and PricedinGold.com

Filed under Economy, monetary universe, new highs by  #

Login