Weekly Summary 06-May-2016

Most asset classes were lower this week. The only exceptions were coffee, up 2.2%, Bitcoin, which rose 0.9%, TLT long bonds, up 0.8%, and platinum, which gained 0.4%. Cotton (down 7.2%) and copper (off 5.9%) were the weakest asset classes.

The government-issued currencies were all lower. The Canadian Dollar was weakest, falling 3.0%. The Japanese Yen was relatively strong, dropping just 0.1%, followed by the Euro, off 0.2%, and the USD, which fell 0.3%.

Stocks were all lower, led by the Japanese Nikkei, which lost 3.9%, followed closely by the HUI gold stocks, which fell 3.4%, and the European STOXX, which gave up 2.8%. US stocks dropped the least, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling just 0.4%.

As mentioned earlier, commodities showed both the biggest gains and the biggest losses for the week. Silver lost 3.3%, while crude oil gave back 3.0%, pull backs from the large gains they have made over the last month. This is even more true of gold stocks, which despite this week's drop, are still up 18.3% from a month ago.

I have recently received some excellent questions from readers, and am working on posts to answer them. We are still out cruising (currently docked in beautiful Clarence Town on Long Island in the Bahamas) so posts and updates to the site may be sporadic… Thank you for your patience!

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Weekly Summary 22-Apr-2016

This week's trading saw currencies and bonds lower, stocks mixed, and commodities mostly higher. The largest gains were in crude oil, up 6.9%, palladium, up 6.2%, and silver, which rose 4.9%. The weakest asset was the long treasury bond (TLT) which fell 3.9%.

Bitcoin made the only gains in the currency space, rising a further 3.0%. Of the government-issued currencies, the Canadian Dollar was once again the strongest, falling just 0.2%. USD cash fell 1.3%. The weakest currency was the Japanese Yen, which dropped 2.5%.

Stocks were mixed, led by the Japanese Nikkei 225, which rose 1.7%, and the European STOXX, which gained 1.5%. US stocks dropped, with the S&P 500 falling 0.8%. Gold stocks held onto last week's gains, rising 0.8% to close at 5.1 grams.

All commodities were higher except coffee, which gave up 1.5%. As mentioned above, crude, palladium and silver were the week's biggest gainers. Copper and Cotton also made good gains, rising 3.8% and 3.7% respectively.

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Weekly Summary 15-Apr-2016

This was a great week for investors, as every asset class I track ended the week higher! Silver, which rose 7.7%, and Japanese Stocks, which gained 7.0%, led the rise. Currencies generally, and the EUR and CNY in particular, were the weakest asset classes.

Bitcoin made the largest gains in the currency space, rising 3.2%. Of the government-issued currencies, the Canadian Dollar was the strongest, gaining 2.8%. USD cash rose 1.0%. Short term bonds also rose 1.0%, but the longer term TLT trailed cash, gaining 0.9%.

Stocks all did very well. The Japanese Nikkei 225 led the field, rising 7.0%, while the European STOXX gained 4.9%, despite (or perhaps because of) the Euro currency's weak showing.

Metals dominated commodity gains. In addition to silver's big rise, palladium (up 6.8%), copper (up 4.2%) and platinum (up 4.1%) were also strong. The weakest commodities were cotton, which rose 0.9%, and crude oil, which gained 2.6%.

The HUI gold stocks continued their rise, ending the week up 3.1%, and closing above 5.0 grams for the first time since 2014.

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Please note that I will be sailing from Panama to Jamaica and onward to the Bahamas this week and next. While I'm at sea I have very limited internet access, so chart updates and the weekly commentary may be delayed a bit.

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Weekly Summary 8-Apr-2016

This was a rough week for most asset classes. The only exceptions were crude oil, up 5.7% to recover most of last week's losses, the HUI gold stock index, which added 5.6% to the prior week's rally, and the Japanese Yen, which gained 1.4%. The biggest drops were in commodities, with coffee (off 7.3%), palladium (down 5.9%) and copper (dropping 5.7%) leading the way lower.

After JPY, the strongest government-issued currency was the Chinese Yuan (down 0.4%). The weakest were the Canadian Dollar (off 2.9%) and the US Dollar, which fell 2.1%. Bonds also dropped, with the Long Term Treasury Fund TLT (down 0.9%) and the short term bond fund SHY (off 1.9%), but both outperformed USD cash.

Stocks (other than the gold miners) were lower, led by the European STOXX (off 3.7%) and the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500, which fell 3.3% each. Japanese stocks, helped by the strong Yen, dropped the least, down 0.8%.

While crude oil recovered most of last week's losses, the metals gave up far more than they gained last week. Cotton, which had a huge rally last week, held on to most of these gains, closing this week off just 0.7%

Gold stocks continue their rise, but are still at historically low prices, offering a great buying opportunity.

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Weekly Summary 25-Mar-2016

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This was a good week for currencies, bonds, and most stocks, but mixed for commodities. The best performing asset was Bitcoin, which rose 4.3% – more than making up for last weeks decline.  The next best was cotton, which gained 4.0%. The weakest asset classes were gold stocks, off 2.7%, and coffee, which dropped 2.2%.

The strongest government-issued currencies were the US Dollar (up 3.0%) and the Chinese Yuan (which rose 2.8%). Bonds were also strong, with the Long Term Treasury Fund TLT turning in the weeks third-best performance, rising 3.3%. The short term bond fund SHY rose 2.9%, but failed to keep up with USD cash.

Stocks (gold miners aside) were all higher, led by the Nikkei (up 3.1%) and the Dow Jones Industrials, which rose 2.4%. Once again, the Euro STOXX FEZ was the weakest, rising just 0.1%.

The week’s bad news was concentrated in the commodity area. In addition to the drop in coffee, silver fell 1.8% and crude oil was down 1.3%. Cotton was the only really strong commodity, but copper and platinum managed small increases.

Although gold stocks finished the week lower, at 4.4g they are still well above their new support at 4.2g, and I think they represent a good value here.

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Weekly Summary 18-Mar-2016

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A great week for all asset classes except Bitcoin, which fell 1.6%. The best performing asset was coffee, which rose 7.8%, followed by gold stocks, which gained 4.4% (more on this below). Aside from Bitcoin, the weakest asset classes were platinum, up 0.8%, and cotton and the USD, each of which gained 1.0%.

The strongest government-issued currencies were the Canadian Dollar (up 3.2%) and the Japanese Yen (which rose 2.9%).

Stocks were all higher. The DJIA rose 3.3%, while the S&P 500 added 2.4%. The Euro STOXX FEZ was the weakest, rising 1.2%. 

As mentioned earlier, gold stocks led the rise in equities. The HUI closed the week at 4.5g, solidly above the 4.2g resistance level I have been watching for the last year. This level was first broken 2 weeks ago, and has been tested twice since then, holding each time. Gold stocks are also trading well above their 200 day moving average.  This could be a good time to add exposure to this asset class.

Although Bitcoin is down for the week, it is still the only asset which is higher today than it was a year ago. It looks like it might be joined by the HUI gold stocks soon, however!

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Weekly Summary 4-Mar-2016

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This was a bad week for currencies and bonds, but a mixed week for stocks and commodities. The best performing asset class was palladium, which rose 7.3%, followed by crude oil, which gained 5.2%. The weakest asset was Bitcoin, down 6.6%, followed by long term bonds (TLT), off 5.3%.

The weakest government-issued currencies were the Yen (down 4.5%) and the Euro (off 4.3%). The “strongest” was the Chinese Yuan, which fell only 1.5%.

US stocks were down (the DJIA lost 1.9%, the S&P 500 lost 1.4%) but European and Japanese equities rose 0.4% each. Gold stocks were the strongest equities, with the HUI rising 2.2% to close at 4.2g, a critical resistance level.

Other metals were mixed, with copper up 2.9% while silver fell 2.3% and platinum dropped 0.7%.

Note that every asset class except Bitcoin is lower today than it was a year ago – particularly palladium and crude oil, which are off 37.5% and 34.5% respectively, even after their recent rallies.

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Weekly Summary 26-Feb-2016

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A good week for stocks; a mixed week for commodities and currencies. The best performing asset class, by far, was crude oil, which rose 11.0% – but with crude’s weak performance during the first 6 weeks of the year, it is still sitting near its all-time lows. The weakest asset was cotton, down 3.8%, followed by palladium, off 2.6%.

Gold stocks slightly outperformed the S&P 500, rising 2.2% to the S&P’s 2.0% gain.

Bitcoin was the strongest currency, up 2.4%, followed by the Canadian Dollar, which rose 2.1%. The Chinese Yuan fell 1.3%, followed by the Euro, which lost 0.6%.  Treasury bonds underperformed USD cash, with TLT falling 0.1% while the USD rose 0.3%.

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Podcast: Gold, Yield, and the End of the Dollar – Part 2

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This podcast is a continuation of my 30-July-2015 interview with Keith Weiner, CEO of Monetary Metals and president of the Gold Standard Institute USA.

In the first part, we discussed the ultimate fate of the dollar. In this episode, we look at the true purpose of the Fed, the limits of central bank power, and then examine investments and speculations that allow us to profit from today's economic situation.

Audio MP3

Download Podcast Part 2 (54:12, 26 MB)

Resources for further study:

Resonance and Feedback
Death of the Swiss Franc
Gold Bonds
Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report

Last week we saw gold stock and platinum prices hit new all-time lows and bounce sharply. Silver continued to fall, but still has a way to ge before making new lows. Please remember that I update a Weekly Summary on the site each weekend. Check it out for the latest commentary on major asset classes.

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Podcast: Gold, Yield, and the End of the Dollar – Part 1

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This podcast is a recording of a conversation I had on July 30th with economist Keith Weiner, CEO of Monetary Metals and president of the Gold Standard Institute USA. We intended to chat for about 20 minutes, but wound up talking for almost an hour and a half! Due to the length, I’ve broken it up into two parts.

In part one, we discuss the simultaneous signs of deflation and inflation in the world economy, how this came to be, and where this process is taking us. We also discuss possible solutions, including ending the Fed, “mending” the Fed, linking the dollar to gold, and why none of these solutions will succeed. We also talk about an exit strategy for the dollar that could actually work.

Audio MP3

Download Podcast Part 1 (36:20, 17.4MB)

Resources for further reading:

The Theory of Interest and Prices in Paper Currency

In the next podcast, we will discuss the half-life of the dollar, the dollar's recent rise, the true purpose of the Fed, and just how much power central bankers really have. Then we turn the discussion to investments and speculations. Be sure to tune in for part two!

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