National currencies, bonds, and major stock indexes declined; commodities were mixed, and cryptocurrencies were mixed but mostly higher. Palladium was the big winner this week, rising 9.0%; the next largest gains were in the broad index of 30 cryptocurrencies, up 4.6%. The largest losses were in crude oil, which dropped 8.0%, and in cotton, which fell 5.0%.

The Euro fell more than any other national currency, dropping 2.0%. The best performer was the Chinese Yuan, which gave up 1.2%. US Dollar cash fell 1.8%, short term notes fell 1.7%, and long term bonds cratered 2.7%.

Bitcoin was almost unchanged and Ethereum rose just 0.8%, but the broader index of 30 cryptos rose 4.6%. This is an indicator that "alt season" is upon us; many of the smaller cryptos are outperforming the large caps. Bitcoin itself had a wild week, making a new all time high of 1,117.4 grams on Saturday, then working its way lower to close at 1,045.9 grams, off just 0.01%.

Gold stocks were up 1.2%, the third best performance of any asset this week, but all the major stock indexes moved lower. The S&P 500 and the European STOXX50 tied for the largest drop, closing down 2.5% each. The Dow Industrial Average fell 2.2%, but remains well above its long term moving average.

The biggest price swings were in commodities. Palladium soared 9.0%, the week's largest gain. Crude oil fell 8.0%, the week's largest loss. Cotton also underperformed, dropping 5.0%. Silver rose 0.9% while platinum fell 2.8%.

Year over year, the cryptocurrencies continue to be the best performers, as Ether rose 1,266.6% and Bitcoin gained 700.7%. Commodities also had a great year, with crude oil rising 106.9% and silver adding 85.2%. Stock indexes also did well, especially Japan's Nikkei, up 54.6% and Europe's STOXX, up 47.0%. Long term bonds were the worst performing asset over the last year, falling 21.8%. The US Dollar was also crushed, dropping 15.0%. Canada was the best place to stash your cash over the last year: the CAD fell just 1.8%.

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Weekly Update 12 Mar 2021 New Crypto Highs

Cryptocurrencies and stocks moved higher, while bonds declined; national currencies and commodities were mixed. Cryptos moved back into out-performance mode, with Bitcoin rising 16.6% and Ether gaining 15.0%. Outside of cryptos, the best performance was by platinum, up 5.1%. The largest losses were in long term bonds, down 2.5%, and the Yuan, off 1.8%. Long bonds are now trading below their 2018 lows, close to their prices in September 2014.

Canada's Dollar was the only national currency in the black, rising 1.0%. The Chinese Yuan fell the most, dropping 1.8%. US Dollar cash declined 0.5%, as did its short term notes. Long term bonds did much worse, falling 2.5%.

Bitcoin had an excellent week, rising 16.6% to a new all-time high of 1,046.0 grams… and the good times continued rolling into the weekend, topping out at 1,117.4 grams on Saturday. Ethereum was up 15.0%, but finished the week just shy of its old high… and then blasted to a new record on Saturday, closing at 35.1 grams. The broader index of 30 cryptos gained 9.8%, closing at 337.3 grams, nowhere near its all-time high of 491.1 grams – still plenty of room for the alts to run before they challenge that level.

Stocks had a good week, led by the Euro STOXX, up 3.6% and the Dow Industrials, up 3.5%. Japan's Nikkei index underperformed, adding just 1.8%. The Australian ASX 200 (not in table) did a bit worse, gaining only 1.2%.

Platinum was the strongest commodity (and the strongest non-crypto asset overall) rising 5.1%. Coffee was also a star performer, adding 2.7%. Crude oil was the weakest of the group, falling 1.2%, followed by cotton, off 0.7%. Silver was unchanged.

Year over year, cryptocurrencies, equities, and commodities were all higher, while bonds fell and national currencies were mixed. Crypto gains were massive, as Bitcoin rallied 962.7% from its lows, and Ether rose 782.1%. Commodities ranked second, with crude oil posting a 91.9% gain, and copper rocking a 53.7% advance. The worst losses were in long bonds, down 19.4%, and the Japanese Yen, off 10.7%. The US Dollar fell 7.9%.

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Weekly Update 5 Mar 2021

National currencies, cryptocurrencies, and equities moved higher, while bonds and commodities were mixed. Crude oil dominated, rising 10.4% to outperform even the cryptocurrencies, where ether rose 8.9% and bitcoin gained 8.5%. The largest losses were in platinum, down 4.2%, and coffee, off 3.7%. Although long term bonds lost biggly in dollar terms, the sharply rising value of the USD offset most of that loss to leave them almost unchanged for the week, down just 0.2%.

The Chinese Yuan outperformed other national currencies by a wide margin, rising 4.2%. Weakest in our chart was the Euro, which added 0.8%, although the Swiss Franc (not in table) did even worse, falling 0.1%. US Dollar cash rose 2.7%, as did its short term notes. Long term bonds were little changed, off 0.2%.

Ethereum worked its way higher throughout the week to close at 28.1 grams, up 8.9%, but still 17.6% below its all-time high. Bitcoin peaked mid week at 918.5 grams, then pulled back to close at 897.2 grams, up 8.6%, about 10.5% shy of its ATH.

Equities did very well, led higher by the HUI gold stock index, which rose 7.6%. Japanese stocks were weakest, advancing just 0.8%. The Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 have both been in downward trending channels since 2018, and they have both broken out to the upside in recent weeks. The Dow rose 4.6% to close at 577.5 grams, solidly above its 36 month moving average of 555.0 grams… and closed above that moving average each day for the entire week.

The week's largest gains and losses were both in commodities. Crude oil rose 10.4% to levels last seen in early January, 2020. Copper also rose, advancing 2.3%. The week's largest losses were in platinum, down 4.2%, coffee, down 3.7%, and silver, off 2.4%. In spite of their losses this week, all three remain in solid uptrends from their March 2020 lows.

Year over year we are now measuring from just before the March 12, 2020 bottom; as you might expect, most assets are now in the black. The most notable exceptions are long term treasuries (down 13.1%) and palladium (off 7.4%). The Japanese Yen and the US Dollar are also in the red, off 3.6% and 2.2% respectively. Cryptocurrencies are by far the strongest performers, with ether rising 561% and bitcoin gaining 427%. Many commodities are also shining, especially copper (up 54.4%) and silver (up 44.2%). Stock market recoveries have also been robust, with the Nikkei rising 30.5% and the S&P 500 gaining 24.3%.

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Weekly Update 26 Feb 2021

Cryptocurrencies fell this week, but most other assets were in the black. After weeks of massive gains and new all-time highs, bitcoin retreated 15.0% and ether fell 24.4%. The largest gains were in coffee, up 10.5%, and crude oil, up 6.4%.

National currencies were higher across the board, led by the Euro, up 2.6%, and the US Dollar, up 2.5%. The Chinese Yuan lagged, gaining just 0.1%. Debt under-performed cash, as both short term notes and long term bonds rose 2.4%.

Cryptos pulled back and caught their breath after weeks of relentless rises and new all-time highs. Bitcoin made a new high of 1002 grams on Sunday, crossing the 1 kg level for the first time. From there it worked its way lower to close at 827 grams, down 15.0%. Ether finished last week at a new all time high, drifted lower over the weekend, fell below 1 ounce of gold on Monday, and continued to slide as the week progressed, ending at 25.8 grams, down 24.4%. The smaller crypto coins were all over the place, some rising, but many falling further than ETH and BTC; overall, the CCI30 index declined 16.8%.

Gold stocks fell 2.7% and the Japanese Nikkei index dropped 1.9%. The Dow Industrials added 0.7% and the S&P 500 was unchanged. The Dow is trading right at its 36 month moving average; a solid close above this level could be a buy signal for long-term trend followers.

Platinum was the only falling commodity in the table, dropping 4.6%. Coffee was the strongest, both in the group and overall, rising 10.5%. Crude came in second, adding 6.4%. Silver advanced 1.5% to 476 mg.

As we approach the first anniversary of the March 2020 crash, many assets are moving into the black year over year. Of course, cryptocurrencies dominate the field with gains of 452.5% for ether and 392.8% for bitcoin, but copper, up 49.3%, and silver, up 38.5%, are also showing strength. In fact, palladium is the only commodity in the red, down 18.2% from a year ago. Long term bonds are the next-worst asset, falling 9.4%. Gold stocks declined, but all other equities were higher, led by the Nikkei, up 25.8%. National currencies were a mixed bag for the year, as the Euro rose 4.8% and the US Dollar fell 6.2%.

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Weekly Update 19 Feb 2020 New Crypto Highs

Most assets moved higher this week, led by the cryptocurrencies. The only ones in the red were gold stocks, down 5.7%, and long term bonds, off 1.0%. The broad index of 30 cryptocurrencies soared 23.9% and Bitcoin gained 19.6% to reach new all-time-highs just below 1 kg of gold. Copper and platinum also were very strong, rising 9.5% and 7.8% respectively.

The Canadian Dollar was the leading national currency this week, rising 2.5%. The Japanese Yen trailed its peers, adding 1.1%. US Dollar cash and short term notes both rose 1.7%, but long term bonds fell 1.0%.

Cryptocurrencies continued to outperform other asset classes. The broad index of 30 cryptos rose 23.9% and Bitcoin, the largest component of the index, climbed 19.6% to reach new all-time highs. Ethereum rose "only" 8.1%, but also closed at new all-time highs, trading above 1 ounce of gold for the last three days. The outperformance of the CCI30 indicates that many of the smaller cryptos (not in the table) are making gains much larger than BTC and ETH. For instance, DASH rose 94.6%, and Binance Coin (BNB), now the third largest crypto by market cap, skyrocketed 147% this week.

The only falling equity in the table was the HUI gold stock index, which dropped 5.7%, the week's largest decline. The Nikkei 225 outperformed other stock indexes, rising 2.8%. In the US, the Dow Industrials gained 1.8% and the broader S&P 500 added 1.0%.

Commodities were all in the black, with copper, up 9.5%, and platinum, up 7.8%, making the largest gains outside of the crypto space. Coffee was also strong, gaining 7.0%. Silver and crude oil were the weakest commodities, adding 1.2% and 1.3% respectively.

Looking back one year, the cryptos continue their dominance, with ETH up 518.8%, BTC up 421.0%, and the CCi30 up 326.5%. Copper and silver occupy the next rank of high-performers, rising 40.5% and 31.9% respectively. Palladium shows the worst losses, falling 23.7%. Also in the basement were long term bonds and the US Dollar itself, down 10.3% and 10.2%. Over the next few weeks, as we approach the first anniversary of the 12 March 2020 "Covid Crash", I expect to see some shakeup in these results.

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Weekly Update 12 Feb 2021

Bonds and national currencies fell, cryptocurrencies continued their strong advances, and stocks and commodities were mixed, but mostly higher. Bitcoin rose 23.6% to a new all-time high, but the broader index of 30 cryptos did even better, closing up 31.4%. Platinum gained 8.1%, but coffee suffered the week's worst losses, dropping 3.4%.

The Euro outperformed other national currencies by finishing the week unchanged. The US Dollar dropped the most, giving up 0.7%. Short term notes also declined 0.7%, but long term bonds fell 1.4%.

In the world of cryptocurrencies, things continue to explode higher, driven by a river of adoption news. Bitcoin gained 23.6% to hit a new all-time high of 813.5 grams. Ethereum was tamer, rising just 6.5%, but is now trading for more than an ounce of gold, and sits just 3.6% below its ATH. However the largest gains were in the altcoins, as the index of the 30 largest cryptos soared 31.4%. 100 grams of gold invested the CCi30 in Jan-2015 would be worth 10.5 kg today… more than a 100x gain in 6 years, achieved with a diversified portfolio of crypto currencies. And the index still sits 43% below its all-time high!

The only declining equities were the gold stocks, as the HUI fell 1.5%. The Nikkei 225 led the way higher, rising 2.3%. US stock markets were relatively weak, with the Dow Industrials adding 0.3% and the S&P 500 gaining 0.5%. Despite closing at new all-time highs priced in Dollars, when priced in gold, the S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials are still 61% below their respective all-time highs set 22 years ago. And this is after a huge bull market from 2011 to 2019 that more than tripled their values. The Dow today is priced about the same as it was in 1996, 1972, 1959 and 1929.

Coffee was the sole commodity in the red, dropping 3.4%, the largest drop for any asset. Palladium broke even, but all others rose, led by its cousin platinum, which gained 8.1%, qualifying it as the best performing asset outside of crypto. Cotton was also strong, rising 4.7%. Copper and crude oil added 3.7% and 3.8% respectively. Silver was up 1.3%.

Year over year, the cryptocurrencies continue their dominance, as Ethereum rose 575.9% and Bitcoin gained 296.1%. Outside of the cryptoshere, silver and copper were the largest winners, rising 32.7% and 25.4% respectively. The US Dollar fell the most, dropping 13.9% while palladium came in second, giving up 13.5% of its value.

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Weekly Update 5 Feb 2021

This was an amazing week, with every asset in the table in the black! Even silver, the week's worst performer, was up a tiny 0.04%. Cryptocurrencies continue to be the big movers and shakers, as Ethereum rose 28.5% and the broader index of 30 cryptos gained 22.8%. Outside of the cryptocurrencies, crude oil was the star, adding 12.6%.

The US and Canadian Dollars shared the "best performance by a national currency" award, rising 3.4% each. The Euro and the Chinese Yuan under-performed, adding 2.3% each. Short term treasury notes tracked USD cash, rising 3.4%, but long term bonds were the week's second worst performing asset, adding just 0.8%.

Trading in Bitcoin was relatively tame this week, and as a result, it saw "only" a 14.9% gain. Most of the action was focused on Ethereum and its "De-Fi" children; ETH soared 28.5%, and many of the smaller alt-coins rose even more. After the week's trading was finished, it was announced that Tesla had quietly purchased $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin as a treasury asset… this has since pushed crypto broadly higher and I expect next week will be a doozie!

Stocks far outperformed bonds, currencies, and many commodities. Top performers were the S&P 500, up 8.2%. and the Euro STOXX, up 8.1%. Weakest was the gold mining sector, and even it rose 4.5%.

Crude oil was the by far the strongest commodity, rising 12.8% and approaching the 1.0 gram/barrel level. Cotton was the next-best performer, gaining 6.1% for the week. Silver and palladium were the weakest commodities, as silver just broke even and palladium rose 3.9%.

Year over year, the cryptos are still in control, with ether rising 684.9% and approaching its all-time highs, and bitcoin advancing 241.8% and making new all-time highs. Outside of the crypto space, silver and copper have been the best performers, with gains of 29.7% and 21.3% respectively. Palladium has seen the worst decline, falling 17.4%. The US Dollar was second-worst, dropping 13.8% in value.

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Weekly Update 22 Jan 2021

Bonds and national currencies declined, stocks were mostly higher, and commodities were mostly lower. But the big fireworks this week were in cryptocurrencies, as Bitcoin fell 11.0% and Ethereum rose 4.7%. The next biggest movers were coffee and palladium, which dropped 3.9% and 3.5% respectively.

The US Dollar and the Japanese Yen led national currencies lower, falling 0.7% each. The Euro outperformed, declining just 0.1%. US Treasury notes and bonds fell in sync with USD cash, dropping 0.7% apiece.

The week's biggest price moves were in the cryptocurrencies, as bitcoin fell 11.0% and ether rose 4.7%. The broader index of 30 cryptocurrencies fell 2.2%. Although Ethereum has reached new highs in US Dollar terms, it is still 36% below its old high when priced in gold, due to the US Dollar's weakness. In contrast, bitcoin made a new all-time high on 8-Jan-2021, and has since retreated 18.7%.

Stock markets were mixed, but gainers outnumbered decliners, and rose farther as well. The S&P 500 added 1.2% and gold mining stocks advanced 0.8%. The Nikkei fell 0.3% and the Dow Industrial Average declined 0.2%. On Wednesday 20-Jan-2021, the Dow made a new all-time high when priced in US Dollars… but keep in mind that today's price of 520.4 grams is 62.6% below its all-time high of 1,393.2 grams set back on 25-Aug-1999.

Today's "high" stock prices are all about the debasement of the US Dollar and the distortions of asset prices caused by artificially low interest rates, not about great stock performance. It's a sad commentary on the state of the US economy when the country's 30 largest industrial companies, working as hard as they can for 20 years to create shareholder value, are outperformed by a factor of more than 2x by a lump of metal sitting in a safe. This applies not just to the USA, but to Europe and Asia as well.

The only commodity in the black this week was cotton, up 0.3%. Platinum gets an honorable mention for closing the week unchanged. Coffee fell 3.9% and palladium dropped 3.5%, the week's largest losses outside of the cryptosphere. Crude oil declined 0.9% and silver retreated 0.4%.

Year over year the picture remains broadly the same as in past weeks, with cryptocurrencies continuing to crush it. Ethereum is up 510.1%, bitcoin is up 219.5%, and the CCI index of 30 cryptos is up 139.7%. Outside of cryptos, silver gets an honorable mention for rising 19.7%. Crude oil is still the largest decliner, down 22.6%, but palladium, down 18.4%, edges out the US Dollar, off 16.0%, in the race for next worst performer.

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Weekly Update 15 Jan 2021

After weeks of near vertical ascension, cryptocurrencies finally paused and pulled back a bit. Bonds and most national currencies rose, while stocks and commodities were mixed. Coffee took the lead this week, rising 4.9%, while Bitcoin fell 8.6% and gold stocks retreated 4.7%.

The only national currency in the red was the Euro, off 0.1%. The Chinese Yuan rose 2.6%, and the US Dollar gained 1.3%. Short term notes followed USD cash, adding 1.3%. Long term bonds outperformed, rising 1.6%.

Bitcoin rose 123% from 11-Dec-2020 to 8-Jan-2021 (less than a month) to hit a new all-time high of 681.2 grams. This week BTC fell to 573.0 grams on Tuesday the 12th, then bounced back to finish the week at 622.8 grams, down 8.6%. Ether declined 3.0%, but many of the smaller cryptocurrencies gained ground; the index of the 30 largest cryptos (dominated by BTC and ETH) dropped just 0.9%. For instance, DASH and Monero (not in table) rose 30.5% and 15.8% respectively.

Among the equity markets, the Japanese Nikkei was the best performer, rising 2.6%. Gold stocks fell the most, dropping 4.7%. US markets saw mixed results, as the Dow Industrials added 0.4% but the S&P 500 fell 0.2%.

Coffee was the week's best performing commodity, and the week's best performer overall, rising 4.9%. Cotton also did well, adding 2.5%. Precious metals were mixed; silver dropped 4.0% and platinum fell 1.2%, while palladium gained 0.8%. Crude oil rose 0.9%.

Year over year, the story remains much the same as in preceding weeks. Crpytos shine the brightest, with Ether up 493.2% and Bitcoin up 252.2%. Silver earns an honorable mention, up 19.1%. Crude oil, down 24.2%, has fallen the most. US Dollar cash is the next worst place to be, down 15.8%.

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Weekly Update 8 Jan 2021

Cryptocurrencies continued their meteoric rise while stocks gained ground and other asset classes were mixed, but mostly higher. Ethereum took the lead this week, rising 69.8%, while Bitcoin rose 40.7% to a new all-time high of 681.2 grams. Outside of the crypto space, crude oil was the leading asset, gaining 9.1%. Long term bonds (down 2.8%) and coffee (off 2.3%) had the largest losses.

The Chinese Yuan dropped 0.8%, but other national currencies moved higher, led by the Canadian Dollar, which rose 1.7%, and the Euro, which added 1.5%. US Dollar cash and short treasury term notes each gained 1.3%. Long term bonds fell 2.8%, the largest loss in this week's table.

Cryptos once again made huge gains, as Ether rose 69.8% and Bitcoin added 40.7% to close at a new all-time high. The broader index of 30 cryptos was up 37.1%. Following this surge, most cryptocurrencies pulled back over the weekend. I suspect that this is a healthy pause to recharge before forging on to higher highs, but a "Bitcoin Crash" of 50% or 60% would not violate the exponential uptrend now in place.

Equity indexes were all in the black, led by the European STOXX, up 4.9%. Gold stocks were the weakest, advancing 2.3%. The S&P 500 added 3.2%.

Coffee was the only declining commodity, falling 2.3%. Crude oil, up 9.1%, and copper, up 5.7%, were the strongest. Among the precious metals, platinum gained 5.5% while silver was weakest, rising just 1.9%.

Looking back one year, we see that cryptocurrencies far outpaced all other asset classes, as Ethereum gained 617.8% and Bitcoin advanced 326.1%. Outside of the cryptos, the best returns were in silver, up 22.1%, and gold stocks, up 11.0%. Copper also did well, rising 10.2%. Crude oil shows the largest loss, dropping 26.1%. It was followed by the US Dollar, which lost 15.6% of its value over the last year.

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