Weekly Update 22 Jan 2021

Bonds and national currencies declined, stocks were mostly higher, and commodities were mostly lower. But the big fireworks this week were in cryptocurrencies, as Bitcoin fell 11.0% and Ethereum rose 4.7%. The next biggest movers were coffee and palladium, which dropped 3.9% and 3.5% respectively.

The US Dollar and the Japanese Yen led national currencies lower, falling 0.7% each. The Euro outperformed, declining just 0.1%. US Treasury notes and bonds fell in sync with USD cash, dropping 0.7% apiece.

The week's biggest price moves were in the cryptocurrencies, as bitcoin fell 11.0% and ether rose 4.7%. The broader index of 30 cryptocurrencies fell 2.2%. Although Ethereum has reached new highs in US Dollar terms, it is still 36% below its old high when priced in gold, due to the US Dollar's weakness. In contrast, bitcoin made a new all-time high on 8-Jan-2021, and has since retreated 18.7%.

Stock markets were mixed, but gainers outnumbered decliners, and rose farther as well. The S&P 500 added 1.2% and gold mining stocks advanced 0.8%. The Nikkei fell 0.3% and the Dow Industrial Average declined 0.2%. On Wednesday 20-Jan-2021, the Dow made a new all-time high when priced in US Dollars… but keep in mind that today's price of 520.4 grams is 62.6% below its all-time high of 1,393.2 grams set back on 25-Aug-1999.

Today's "high" stock prices are all about the debasement of the US Dollar and the distortions of asset prices caused by artificially low interest rates, not about great stock performance. It's a sad commentary on the state of the US economy when the country's 30 largest industrial companies, working as hard as they can for 20 years to create shareholder value, are outperformed by a factor of more than 2x by a lump of metal sitting in a safe. This applies not just to the USA, but to Europe and Asia as well.

The only commodity in the black this week was cotton, up 0.3%. Platinum gets an honorable mention for closing the week unchanged. Coffee fell 3.9% and palladium dropped 3.5%, the week's largest losses outside of the cryptosphere. Crude oil declined 0.9% and silver retreated 0.4%.

Year over year the picture remains broadly the same as in past weeks, with cryptocurrencies continuing to crush it. Ethereum is up 510.1%, bitcoin is up 219.5%, and the CCI index of 30 cryptos is up 139.7%. Outside of cryptos, silver gets an honorable mention for rising 19.7%. Crude oil is still the largest decliner, down 22.6%, but palladium, down 18.4%, edges out the US Dollar, off 16.0%, in the race for next worst performer.

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Weekly Update 15 Jan 2021

After weeks of near vertical ascension, cryptocurrencies finally paused and pulled back a bit. Bonds and most national currencies rose, while stocks and commodities were mixed. Coffee took the lead this week, rising 4.9%, while Bitcoin fell 8.6% and gold stocks retreated 4.7%.

The only national currency in the red was the Euro, off 0.1%. The Chinese Yuan rose 2.6%, and the US Dollar gained 1.3%. Short term notes followed USD cash, adding 1.3%. Long term bonds outperformed, rising 1.6%.

Bitcoin rose 123% from 11-Dec-2020 to 8-Jan-2021 (less than a month) to hit a new all-time high of 681.2 grams. This week BTC fell to 573.0 grams on Tuesday the 12th, then bounced back to finish the week at 622.8 grams, down 8.6%. Ether declined 3.0%, but many of the smaller cryptocurrencies gained ground; the index of the 30 largest cryptos (dominated by BTC and ETH) dropped just 0.9%. For instance, DASH and Monero (not in table) rose 30.5% and 15.8% respectively.

Among the equity markets, the Japanese Nikkei was the best performer, rising 2.6%. Gold stocks fell the most, dropping 4.7%. US markets saw mixed results, as the Dow Industrials added 0.4% but the S&P 500 fell 0.2%.

Coffee was the week's best performing commodity, and the week's best performer overall, rising 4.9%. Cotton also did well, adding 2.5%. Precious metals were mixed; silver dropped 4.0% and platinum fell 1.2%, while palladium gained 0.8%. Crude oil rose 0.9%.

Year over year, the story remains much the same as in preceding weeks. Crpytos shine the brightest, with Ether up 493.2% and Bitcoin up 252.2%. Silver earns an honorable mention, up 19.1%. Crude oil, down 24.2%, has fallen the most. US Dollar cash is the next worst place to be, down 15.8%.

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Weekly Update 8 Jan 2021

Cryptocurrencies continued their meteoric rise while stocks gained ground and other asset classes were mixed, but mostly higher. Ethereum took the lead this week, rising 69.8%, while Bitcoin rose 40.7% to a new all-time high of 681.2 grams. Outside of the crypto space, crude oil was the leading asset, gaining 9.1%. Long term bonds (down 2.8%) and coffee (off 2.3%) had the largest losses.

The Chinese Yuan dropped 0.8%, but other national currencies moved higher, led by the Canadian Dollar, which rose 1.7%, and the Euro, which added 1.5%. US Dollar cash and short treasury term notes each gained 1.3%. Long term bonds fell 2.8%, the largest loss in this week's table.

Cryptos once again made huge gains, as Ether rose 69.8% and Bitcoin added 40.7% to close at a new all-time high. The broader index of 30 cryptos was up 37.1%. Following this surge, most cryptocurrencies pulled back over the weekend. I suspect that this is a healthy pause to recharge before forging on to higher highs, but a "Bitcoin Crash" of 50% or 60% would not violate the exponential uptrend now in place.

Equity indexes were all in the black, led by the European STOXX, up 4.9%. Gold stocks were the weakest, advancing 2.3%. The S&P 500 added 3.2%.

Coffee was the only declining commodity, falling 2.3%. Crude oil, up 9.1%, and copper, up 5.7%, were the strongest. Among the precious metals, platinum gained 5.5% while silver was weakest, rising just 1.9%.

Looking back one year, we see that cryptocurrencies far outpaced all other asset classes, as Ethereum gained 617.8% and Bitcoin advanced 326.1%. Outside of the cryptos, the best returns were in silver, up 22.1%, and gold stocks, up 11.0%. Copper also did well, rising 10.2%. Crude oil shows the largest loss, dropping 26.1%. It was followed by the US Dollar, which lost 15.6% of its value over the last year.

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Weekly Update 1 Jan 2021 Happy New Year!

Due to the New Years holiday, this was another short trading week. Cryptocurrencies rose, bonds fell, and all other asset classes were mixed. The largest gains were in Bitcoin, which continued to climb, adding another 18.3% and closing at a new all-time high of 484 grams. Ethereum was not far behind, rising 15.8%. Copper (down 2.0%) and the HUI gold stocks (off 1.1%) had the largest losses.

National currencies were mostly lower; only the Canadian Dollar posted a gain, and that was a meager 0.1%. The US Dollar fell the most, dropping 0.7%. The Chinese Yuan and Japanese Yen fell 0.3% each. Short term treasury notes tracked USD cash, sliding 0.7%, but long term bonds did a bit better, holding their loss to 0.4%.

Cryptocurrencies were on fire, as Bitcoin rose 18.3% to a new all-time high, and Ether gained 15.8%. Over the weekend, both pushed even higher. The broader index of 30 cryptos added 7.9%.

Equity markets were mixed, with the Japanese Nikkei the clear winner, rising 2.6%; the S&P 500 trailed, gaining 0.8%. Gold stocks were down 1.1% and the European STOXX fell 0.9%.

Outside of the cryptos, platinum was the best performer, rising 3.8%. Silver rose 1.9% and cotton gained 1.7%. Copper fell 2.0%, the week's largest loss. Crude oil and palladium were also losers, but declined just 0.2% apiece.

Looking back on 2020, we see that the cryptocurrencies had by far the largest gains, as Ether rose 352.2% and Bitcoin gained 227.4%. Silver and copper were the only other assets in the black for the year, with gains of 17.8% and 0.7% respectively. Crude oil and coffee were the year's worst performers, falling 36.9% and 20.6%. In third place was the US Dollar, down 19.8%. I will be putting together a more comprehensive report on 2020 soon.

Wishing you all an excellent and happy 2021!

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Weekly Update 25 Dec 2020 Merry Christmas!

Due to the Christmas holidays, this was a short trading week. Bonds rose, but all other asset classes were mixed. The largest gains were in Bitcoin, which continued to climb, adding another 6.9%, followed by coffee and long dated treasury bonds, which rose 0.9% apiece. Ether (down 4.1%) and the CCi30 crypto index (off 3.3%) had the largest losses.

National currencies were quiet ahead of the holiday, as USD cash rose 0.3%, the Yen was unchanged, and the Canadian Dollar and Chinese Yuan declined 0.3%. Short term notes tracked USD cash, rising 0.3%, but long term bonds gained 0.9%, making them one of the week's best performers.

The week's biggest price swings were in cryptocurrencies, as Bitcoin was the best and Ethereum the worst performing asset class. Bitcoin rose 6.9% to 409.2 grams and continued rising through the weekend, hitting a high of 469 grams on Sunday before settling back to 436 grams. Ether fell to a low of 9.68 grams on Wednesday, then recovered to close at 10.39 grams, down 4.1%.

US equity indexes were in the black, but Europe and Japan were in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%, and the Euro STOXX and Japanese Nikkei each fell 0.4%. Gold stocks were down 0.5%.

Copper fell 1.5% and crude oil declined 1.4%; coffee rose 0.9%. Precious metals were mixed, as palladium and silver added 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, while platinum fell 1.3%.

Year over year, cryptocurrencies dominate on the upside, as Ether has risen 283.7% and Bitcoin is up 168.0%. Outside of cryptos, silver has been the star performer, rising 16.0%. Crude oil still shows the worst loss, down 37.7%, followed by coffee, off 23.0%. The US Dollar is in third place in the race to the bottom, with a loss of 21.0%.

Wishing you all happy holidays, and an excellent New Year!

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Weekly Update 11 Dec 2020

Bonds and most national currencies moved higher while cryptocurrencies and stocks pulled back; commodities were mixed. The largest gains were in cotton, up 3.5%, and coffee, up 3.4%. The CCI30 crypto index (down 4.9%) and platinum (off 4.8%) had the largest losses.

The Euro, down 0.2% was the only national currency in the red. The Japanese Yen and Canadian Dollar outperformed, rising 0.3%. The US Dollar added 0.1%, as did its short term notes. Long term bonds did extremely well, rising 2.4%, the third largest gain for the week.

Cryptos were broadly lower, pulling back after the prior week's big runup. Bitcoin fared the best, retreating 3.4%. The broader index of 30 cryptos fell 4.9%, the largest loss of the week. By the weekend, however, Bitcoin was on the rise again.

Stocks were all lower, led by the Euro STOXX index, down 1.3%. The Japanese Nikkei (off 0.1%) and the HUI gold stock index (off 0.2%) outperformed the other equities. The S&P 500 fell 0.9%.

The largest price swings were in commodities. Coffee and cotton rose 3.5% and 3.4% respectively. Precious metals saw losses, as platinum fell 4.8% and silver dropped 1.7%.

Year over year, cryptocurrencies continue to dominate, with Ether up 196.8% and Bitcoin up 99.2%. Silver earns an honorable mention, rising 15%. The year's largest losses are in crude oil, down 36.2%, and coffee, down 27.6%. Third place goes to the US Dollar, off 20.4%.

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Weekly Update 4 Dec 2020

National currencies, bonds, and major stock market indexes fell, while cryptocurrencies rose and commodities were wildly mixed. The largest gains were in platinum, up 9.0%, and Ether, up 6.2%. Coffee and long term bonds had the largest losses, falling 7.6% and 6.4% respectively.

National currencies were all in the red, led by the Japanese Yen, down 3.6%, and the US Dollar, off 3.5%. The Chinese Yuan outperformed, sliding just 0.9%. Short term notes tracked USD Cash, dropping 3.5%, but long term bonds took a major hit, falling 6.4%, the second largest loss this week.

Cryptocurrencies had a good week, as Ether rose 6.2% and Bitcoin gained 5.5%. Some smaller cryptos did even better; Monero (XMR, a privacy-focused coin) soared 10.1%. The index of 30 large cap cryptocurrencies managed a 0.9% gain.

Gold stocks rallied 0.4%, but all the major stock indexes in the table fell. Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 3.2%, and the Dow Industrials closed down 2.5%. The S&P 500 was off 1.8%. One positive note was the UK FTSE 100 (not in table) which rose 0.3%.

Commodities saw both the week's largest losses and largest gains; platinum soared 9.0%, and coffee fell 7.6%. Cotton dropped 4.6%, and silver rose 2.2%. Crude oil and copper, both bellwethers for the economy, were relatively quiet; crude was off 0.8% and copper was up 0.7%.

Year over year, cryptos far outpaced all other asset classes, as Ethereum rose 208.4% and Bitcoin rose 106.4%. Honorable mention goes to silver, for a 14.5% gain. Crude oil and coffee fell the most, giving up 35.9% and 21.5% respectively. In third place we have the US Dollar, down 20.0% over the last year.

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Weekly Update 27 Nov 2020

Every asset in the table moved higher except Bitcoin and gold stocks, which declined 3.1% and 0.3% respectively. The largest gains were in commodities, as crude oil soared 13.9% and coffee roared 13.4% higher. Third place went to the CCi30 crypto index, which rose 10.8% despite the losses in Bitcoin, it's largest component.

Among national currencies, the Euro performed best, rising 6.3%, followed closely by the Canadian Dollar, which rose 6.2%. The Chinese Yuan lagged behind its peers, adding 3.3%. US Dollar cash and short term notes gained 5.4%, while long term bonds added 4.6%.

Bitcoin took a little breather from its recent meteoric rise, pulling back 3.1%, but much of the crypto-sphere was on fire; Ether rose 7.0% and the broader universe of the 30 largest cryptos closed up 10.8%. Even after its decline this week, Bitcoin remains above its 2019 highs.

Gold stocks fell 0.3%, but the major stock indexes were all higher, led by the Nikkei which rose 9.8%. US stocks underperformed, adding 7.7% for the Dow and 7.8% for the S&P 500.

Commodities were all higher, led by crude oil rising 13.9% and coffee gaining 13.4%. Silver was the weakest commodity, adding just 0.9%.

Year over year, cryptos dominate with Ethereum up 184.0%, and Bitcoin up 85.7%. Silver bullion and gold stocks earn honorable mentions, rising 10.9% and 9.6% respectively. The worst losses were in crude oil, down 36.3%, followed by the US Dollar, off 18.3%.

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Weekly Update 13 Nov 2020

National currencies and bonds reversed course and joined cryptocurrencies and major stock markets in heading higher; commodities were mixed. The biggest gains were in crude oil, which rose 10.9%, and European stocks, which added 10.1%. Although major stock indexes were in the black, gold stocks fell 6.5%, the largest loss this week. Silver was in second place, declining 3.5%.

The Chinese Yuan and the US Dollar led the national currencies higher, rising 2.8% and 2.6% respectively. The Japanese Yen lagged behind, gaining 1.3%. Short term notes tracked USD cash, but long term bonds underperformed, adding just 1.8%.

Cryptos were strong again, but not strong enough to dominate the winners list. Bitcoin led the way higher, rising 7.6% to 268.4 grams. Ether was close behind, gaining 7.1%, and the broader index of 30 coins added 5.5%.

Gold stocks fell 6.5%, the week's largest loss, but all other stock indexes were in the black. The European STOXX rocketed higher, gaining 10.1%, and the Dow Industrials rose 6.8%.

Silver and palladium were the only commodities in the red. Silver fell 3.5%, and palladium declined 2.3%. Crude oil was the week's largest winner, rising a massive 10.9%. Coffee also outperformed, gaining 4.8%.

Year over year, the cryptocurrencies dominated all other assets, as Ether rose 95.1% and Bitcoin gained 43.3%. The largest losses, by far, were in crude oil, down 45.6%. Second place was a tie between the US Dollar and the Euro STOXX, each down 22.6%.

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Weekly Update 6 Nov 2020

National currencies and bonds fell, stocks and cryptocurrencies rose strongly, and commodities were mixed. The biggest gains were in cryptos, as Ether rose 15.2%, and Bitcoin gained 11.4%. Cotton fell 3.5%, while the US Dollar and its short term notes fell 3.0%, the largest losses this week.

The US Dollar and Chinese Yuan were the weakest national currencies, falling 3.0% and 2.6% respectively. The Canadian Dollar outperformed by declining 0.8%. Short term notes followed USD cash, closing down 3.0%, but long term bonds did better, declining only 1.8%.

Cryptocurrencies were very strong, as Ethereum gained 15.2% and Bitcoin rose 11.4%. This strength was mostly concentrated in the largest cryptos, however. The broader index of 30 coins, the CCi30, managed only a 5.5% gain.

Stocks also had a good week, with all the indexes tracked in the table closing in the black. Gold stocks and the European STOXX led the way, rising 6.7% each. The Dow Industrials underperformed their peers, but still added 3.6%.

Among the commodities, palladium and silver were the star performers, rising 6.6% and 5.8% respectively. Cotton fell 3.5%, and coffee declined 0.7%; they were the table's only commodities in the red.

Year over year, the top places to be are Ethereum (up 84.3%) and Bitcoin (up 27.3%). Third place goes to gold stocks, which gained 23.6%. Major stock indexes, bonds, and national currencies were all in the red, but the largest losses were in crude oil, which dropped 49.5%. The Euro STOXX were in distant second place, falling 28.7%.

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