I've been experimenting with a new charting technology called "Beyond XL Charts". It allows calculations such as conversion from USD to Gold grams, and taps into online data streams to provide charts that update automatically. Two new charts have been added using this technology: LME cash copper, and Kansas No. 2 Wheat.
Each chart covers the last ten years, from January 1997 to the present, using weekly closes and the London PM gold fix.
Please take a look, and let me know what you think.
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Based on numbers from the St. Louis Fed, our newest addition to the Charts section of the website shows the US GDP in gold grams – billions of them!
This series is similar in appearance to the long term DJIA, but with less volatility. This makes sense, as stocks tend to follow in the footsteps of the overall economy. But the Dow has it's own sense of timing, peaking about 4 years before the GDP in the 60s, and falling much further during the 70s, then rising over 36 times in value from 1980 to 1999, while the GDP rose a little over 9 times from it's low. Once again, the Dow peaked first, in 1999, while the GDP kept climbing until 2001.
The last 6 years have been devestating, with the GDP falling by 47% from 1,222 Gg in the Spring of 2001 to 647 Gg 2007.
Filed under gold prices, monetary universe, price of gold by
The Charts section has been updated with a new chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, this one from 1900 to present. The three big bull markets of this 107 year period, and the following bear markets, are easily seen. It is clear that a lot of money can be made – and lost – investing in stocks over the long run.
From 1904 to 1929 the Dow grew 12 times in value from 47 to 568 gold grams, then gave up 89% of that gain, ending at 64 grams in 1933. In the next phase, the Dow grew almost 14 times, to 893 grams in 1966. This was followed by a long decline, losing almost 96% of it's value, finally bottoming around 37 grams in 1980. Then the next bull market emerged, growing over 37 times to 1,393 gold grams in 1999. The 8 years following this all time peak have been a downward march, representing a loss of almost 56% to the August 31, 2007 close of 618.262 gold grams.
What will the future hold? I would love to hear comments from technicians on this topic… But if the last two market cycles are any guide, I suspect we will see the Dow trading below 200 gold grams sometime in the next 5 to 10 years, and it may not be until around 2035 that a new high is made.
There are many roads that could lead to the 200 gram level; the Dow could move sideways as the value of the dollar shrinks, or the Dow could keep making "new highs" in terms of a plummeting dollar, or the dollar could stabilize or even strengthen while the Dow collapses in nominal terms.
But if your goal is to build your real wealth, the key is to keep your eye on the ball: investing in assets that are growing in gold value, regardless of their price as viewed in the fun-house mirrors of fiat currencies. The Custom Chart service can help you identify those opportunities, and we will be bringing more tools online in the future as well.
Filed under home currency, monetary universe, new highs, price of gold, wages and salaries by
After last week's wild ride, I've updated all charts on the site to August 17. The big surprise to me was silver, which has fallen off of a cliff! Uranium is continuing it's slide as well, but it still by far the best performer of the last few years. The DJIA has been weak and volatile, but hardly in free fall, and most other prices also seem pretty mellow when measured in gold. This tells me that it's the dollar that is gyrating – and the Fed's lowering of the discount rate is a flashing warning that more inflation is dead ahead.
Watch your profits, and don't be fooled by a shrinking dollar – make sure your real wealth is increasing! And if you haven't given the Custom Charting Service a try, remember that as a subscriber to the newsletter you can get a FREE chart of the currency, commodity or security of your choice! See details on the Custom Charts page. Use this market correction to your advantage – Custom Charts can help!
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Today I added a chart of US median sales prices for existing homes in gold grams, covering the years 1968 to 2006. Data for this chart comes from the National Association of Realtors via the widely respected RealEstateABC.com site. As you can see, homes were a real bargain in 1980, but have been falling since 2002, losing almost 16% of their value.
Other charts were also updated to Friday August 3 closes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 611.14, dropping 6.2% from it's recent peak of 652.01 on July 17th, compared with a 5.6% drop in US dollar terms. Silver has been drifting lower over the course of 2007, closing at .601 grams on Friday. Uranium has dropped sharply in July, ending the month at 5.608 grams, down 13.1% from last month's high of 6.455 grams.
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I want every subscriber to the Priced In Gold newsletter to have a Custom Chart absolutely FREE.
If you're already a subscriber, this is my way of saying "Thanks!". If you're not yet a subscriber, sign up today — the newsletter is totally free, you can unsubscribe anytime you like, and one free custom chart worth $9.95 is yours for the asking. Give it a try on a stock in your retirement account, on your local currency, or on that "hot tip" you've been thinking about investing in… The chart you get might change your mind — or confirm what you're already suspecting. Either way, it will be fun, and won't cost you a cent to try it out.
There will be lots of other goodies coming for subscribers, too, so don't wait! Just fill in your name and email in the boxes in the upper right corner of this page, and start pricing your investments in gold!
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In this episode, I take the top three frequently asked questions about pricing in gold, and answer them. What am I trying to do with this web site? Why use gold as the measure of value? And the big one: how exactly does pricing in gold improve investment results?
Listen to the show for the answers, and to find out how to get great discounts on Custom Charts.
Filed under Audio Podcast, general sessions by
Just a quick note — I still haven't found a good source for gasoline prices before April of 1993 (if you can give me a URL for this data, I would very much appreciate it!) but I did find the peak price for gasoline in California in March of 1981, the price point quoted in the news articles as being the highest "inflation adjusted" price (until now) for US gasoline.
That price was $1.66 per gallon, and the dollar at the time was worth about 63.6 mg of gold, so gas was around 106 mg of gold per gallon, about the same as the recent low in February of 2007.
Interestingly, the highest price I've found so far for gasoline is 295 mg of gold, back in 1970, when gasoline was selling for 34 cents a gallon (but the dollar was worth 880 mg of gold.)
Filed under monetary universe, money gold, new highs, profitable ideas by
This week the retail price of gasoline hit a new all-time high. Is it time to sell the SUV and buy a hybrid? Listen to the second Priced in Gold Podcast to hear my comments on pricing gasoline in gold. I have also added the chart showing US retail gasoline priced in gold for the last ten years to the Charts section of the website.
Also new this week is the Priced In Gold Listener Hotline. You can now call me 24/7, toll-free at 888-868-5656 to ask a question or make a comment on the site or the podcast. I hope to add a "Listener's Corner" section to the show in the future, so please give me a call!
If the phone isn't "your thing", you can send email to editor@pricedingold.com or use the comment box below to get in touch with me.
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The big news this week is that the Dow Jones Indistrial Average has broken the 13,000 barrier, establishing a new all-time high. What does this all mean? Has the Dow been a good place to invest money? Listen to the first Priced in Gold Podcast to hear my comments on investing, the DJIA, and pricing in gold.
Filed under Audio Podcast, Dow Jones Industrials, new highs by
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