Subscriber Kerry B wrote to me recently:

I would love to see a long running value of the U.S. M3 in gold. I've wondered if this pool equals a relatively fixed gold value while the dollar price of gold reflects mainly the fluctuation in the amount of money in the pool. Thanks.

I'm not sure which measure of the money supply would be best for that purpose… M3 hasn't been published since 2006. I did do a chart of M2 in gold, but it looks pretty much like GDP – for the most part the change in USD purchasing power relative to gold overshadows the changes in M2 or GDP, making the charts look pretty similar:

M2 money supply in gold grams

There are many other measures (M0, M1, M2, MZM, etc. as well as private measures like Paul van Eeden's Actual Money Supply) that might be more informative. I have not tried to investigate them all.

To my mind, the direct mathematical relationship between number of dollars and their purchasing power is only a minor part of the story. The dollar really has no basis on which to have any value at all, and it is simply people's confidence that someone else will take them that gives them utility. So things that shake that confidence tend to drive down purchasing power in a big way. This shows up first in highly liquid, heavily traded commodities like gold and oil, but eventually works it's way through the system into everything else.

When people feel things are on the right track and improving, like they did under Reagan in the 80s, the dollar gains strength even though the government is running big deficits that logically should be pushing it down. Bank failures, defaults, bailouts, rising unemployment, stock market crashes ("flash" or otherwise) etc. shake confidence and lead to concern about the future viability of the fiat money, whether or not they cause net additions to the number of dollars actually chasing after the available goods in a monetarist calculation.

But eventually, the numbers will have their due. We now have so much debt, and are creating more at such a great rate, and have announced plans to do so for the foreseeable future, that the whole house of cards pretty much has to tumble at some point. We are already past the point where there is any reasonable hope of repaying the principal in a meaningful way. Interest can still be paid, but there is a finite tax base from which to pay it. As the amount owed continues to rise, and interest rates continue to rise, and taxes continue to rise, there will be more big downdrafts in the USD value, followed by smaller updrafts as the fear eases off from time to time. When super high taxes can't confiscate enough to cover the interest due, default, either explicit or through hyper-inflation, will occur.

This is one point where my view differs fundamentally from that of most analysts and economists. They are looking at gold and wondering how high it can go. They think gold will enter a "mania" phase that will push it up like tech stocks at the end of the 90s, or gold and silver in late 70s. They want to be able to recognize the top of the gold market so that they can get out before it falls like it did back in 1980.

I do not foresee a gold mania. I foresee the end of the dollar (really, the end of the fiat currency experiment all around the world.) Others talk about "the end of the dollar", but in the next paragraph, they talk about how to recognize the "blow off" in gold prices, and the importance of selling at the right time. This totally misses the point.

There is a basic difference between fiat money and gold, silver, real estate, tech stocks, or even tulips. The fiat money HAS NO INTRINSIC VALUE AT ALL. The others all have some real value, independent of what their "price" in some monetary unit is. They serve a real purpose, even if it is only to decorate your window box or make your house smell nice. Someone will always want them for what only they can do better than anything else.

Although I often point out that gold can be priced in dollars or dollars can be priced in gold, and that one is just the mathematical inverse of the other, gold and dollars are not in fact interchangeable. Dollars can, just like all the earlier failed fiat money experiments, go all the way to zero. Disappear from the monetary scene. Become a footnote in the history books. Become "as worthless as a Continental", just like the current dollar's predecessor, the bills issued by the Continental Congress during the American Revolution. Gold will not. It is too useful in its own right, and has been through the fire that has consumed hundreds of other forms of money over thousands of years and always come out shining.

Will the dollar eventually be replaced by the "New Dollar"? By the "Amero"? By the Renminbi? Or the Euro? Or the Islamic Dinar? Who knows – and who cares!

Use gold as your money. Keep your savings in gold. Measure the prices of things in gold. Watch the demise of the dollar from the comfort of your easy chair, drink in hand, as it continues to head, in fits and starts, toward its intrinsic value of zero. If the dollar enters an updraft, or even a mania, feel free to speculate a little, but watch carefully for your exit point near the top of the rally, or use trailing stops to get you out. The same holds true for stocks, real estate, and other investments. Keep the gold value of your investments growing. Take some profits off the table from time to time, adding them to your store of gold savings.

And whatever happens to the US dollar, you will still have your gold. And you will be able to exchange bits of it for whatever you need: to eat, to start a new business, to help your friends and family, to travel, to LIVE!

And that's what it's all about.

Daniel Rigby wrote to me recently to ask:

This may seem like a dumb question, but I am unsure of how to actually price things in gold myself. Is it on a per gram basis? Could you provide me with an example of how to price something in gold, say dollars?

Thanks for asking, Daniel! That's a great topic that I haven't covered lately.

The exchange rate between dollars and gold is most often published in the form of US dollars per troy ounce of gold. If you take the price of anything in USD, and divide it by the price of gold in USD/oz, you will get the price of that thing in ounces of gold.

I prefer to use grams instead of ounces, as this allows quoting small prices (a few cents to a few dollars) in mg, large prices (tens of thousands to millions of dollars) in kg, and really big numbers (billions and trillions of dollars) in metric tons of gold, just by sliding the decimal point around.

To get the price of one dollar in grams of gold, take the price per ounce, and divide it by 31.1034768, the number of grams in one troy ounce. Then divide the USD price by that to get the price in gold grams.

If you are looking for a historical price, let's say, to find what you paid for a house in 2003, you need to get the price of gold on the purchase date, and use that for the conversion. My favorite web source for "recent" gold prices (back to 1968) is the LBMA (London Bullion Market Association). Their website publishes the London AM and PM fixings for gold, which are widely used. This page also gives prices in GBP and EUR for dates since 2000.

For example, suppose you purchased 100 shares of the DIA ETF on March 15, 2004, for 112 USD per share. Your total cost in dollars would be $11,200. To find your cost in gold grams, first find the price of gold on March 15th, 2004; on that date, gold was fixed in London at $399 in the morning, and $398.10 in the afternoon. Let's choose the London PM fix for this example. If we divide 11,200 by 398.10 we get the price of the shares in ounces of gold: 28.134 oz. To get the price in grams, we would divide 398.10 by 31.1034768 giving 12.799, the price of 1 gram of gold, and then divide $11,200 by that to get 875.05 gold grams. (BTW, at todays close, those shares were worth $10,831, pretty close to the original purchase price… but only worth 257.67 grams of gold, a loss of over 70%, due to the falling value of the US Dollar!)

Of course the easiest way to do conversions, if you have an iPhone or iPod Touch, is to get the free Priced in Gold app! The universal version, which works with iPad as well, should be in the store shortly. It's also a great way to keep in touch with this blog, and access charts and other information when you're on the go.

Hope this helps!

As September, 2010 comes to a close, the US Dollar continues falling to new all-time lows, now below 24 mg for the first time in history. At the same time, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), whose Business Cycle Dating Committee is charged with defining when recessions begin and end, has announced that the recession that began in December 2007 ended in June of 2009.

Although they used many metrics to make this determination, the key was that US GDP peaked at the end of 2007, and made it's low in mid-2009.

"The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date."

I think a lot of people are confused by this report, to put it mildly. More accurately, I'd say that their BS detectors are on full alert! Unemployment, which was under 5% at the end of 2008, is now at 9.6%, about where it was in mid 2009. According to RealtyTrac, in August of 2010 lenders repossessed a record 95,000 homes, up from 76,000 a year earlier, two months into the "recovery".

Sure, stock prices have been rising, when measured in dollars. They peaked a few months before the "recession" began, and bottomed a few months before it "ended". But when priced in gold, they have been in a bear market since mid-1999, hit bottom in 1Q2009, and have been pretty much flat since then.
Dow Jones Industrials ETF in USD and Gold

But what about the key number used by the NBER, the US GDP? It shows "expansion" since June of 2009, as measured in dollars. But to get that expansion, a huge number of new dollars have been created and released into the US economy in the form of quantitative easing, targeted porkbarrel stimulus, cash for clunkers, bailouts, etc. And this shows up as a declining value of the dollar. If the effects of this stimulus on the economy are powerful enough to outweigh the drop in the dollar's value, all is well and good. Unfortunately, this is not the case:
US GDP in USD and Gold

A couple of Yogi-isms come to mind… "Slump? I ain't in no slump… I just ain't hitting!" And one of my favorites, "It ain't over 'til it's over".

'Nuff said.

Filed under monetary universe by  #

There has never been a better time to switch to gold. By that I mean to choose gold as your unit of account, your personal money. To hold your savings in gold. To measure your investment returns in gold. To keep your books in gold. In fact, it's not just a "good idea", it is vital to your future!

Why?

Because there is a market in money. All the world's currencies compete against one another. Each has a large "captive" user base, mostly in it's country of issue, but all are traded on exchanges, just like stocks. Traders who see a currency with weakness not yet reflected in its price will sell the weak one and buy something stronger. Although there can be price distortions, over time these tend to correct, and traders are rewarded for their insight.

Gold is one such currency, although it has no captive user base at the moment. The US dollar is another, with a large domestic user base and popularity around the world as central banks hold it in their reserves, individuals hold it for savings, entire countries use it as their means of exchange, and important commodities like crude oil are priced in it. Euros, Pounds, Renminbi, Yen, and many others also compete in this marketplace.

Gold is the strongest, safest form of money mankind has yet discovered. It has many uses, it is easily tested for purity and easily divided in convenient units. It does not rot, rust or corrode, it is rare enough that it takes real effort to obtain more of it, but not so rare that it cannot be had by anyone who wants to own some. Of course it is not perfect; nothing is! But for thousands of years people have been experimenting with various forms of money, and gold is the one form that has withstood the test of time, again and again.

Most people use the local brand of currency because it's easy. All the local banks use it, all the prices they see marked on the shelves when the go shopping use it. It is easy to obtain, easy to save, and easy to spend. In some countries, at some times, people have had little choice; use of the local currency was mandated by law. Holding or trading in foreign currencies without special permission from the government was a punishable offense. Often, taking the local currency out of the country in any meaningful amount was also a crime. In almost every country, "legal tender" laws force many types of transactions to be conducted using the local currency. You will need some, too; but just enough to facilitate your day to day transactions.

The last 30 years or so have been a time of fairly strong monetary freedom; people from all over the world have been able to own whatever currencies they wanted. They have been able to open accounts in other countries, to travel the world and exchange their home country cash for local cash or use their credit cards to make purchases when traveling, or from home over the Internet. Most have been able to own gold.

Storm signals are now flying, however – signaling the end of this period of relative freedom. Austerity measures, deficit reduction programs, tax increases, and new reporting requirements all point to a period of increasing government control and regulation. A period of increasing nationalism, of homeland security, of tightening borders. A period of diminishing freedom and privacy in many ways, but especially in terms of money and travel.

With a tip of the hat to The Daily Crux, I recommend this piece from the Expected Returns Blog:

There are certain periods of time in history when seemingly obscene prognistications are right. I believe we are in one of those times. It is at times like these that "conspiracy theorists" (whatever that means) become what I like to call "reality theorists." 

Economic shocks come from nowhere. One day the global economy is humming along; the next day it collapses. Crashes don't occur because the fundamentals suddenly change; they occur because the public at large recognizes the fundamentals and heads for the exit at the same time. What's crashing next is the public's confidence in governments across the Western world. You can guess how that will affect the price of gold.

And how it will affect freedom in general.

A great place to start is by dumping the local currency as your unit of account. Start thinking in gold terms, not in terms of the local funny money. But that is just the start.

If you do not own any physical gold, buy some now. Buy one little coin, even if it just one-tenth of an ounce. Hold it in your hand, put it somewhere safe, or carry it in your pocket, but get started.

If you do own some gold, think of it as your core savings position. Is it enough? Add to it until you can sleep well at night, knowing that whatever transpires in the markets overnight, when you wake up you will at least have that core position to work with. If you own stocks or other liquid assets that have been appreciating in gold terms, take some of your profits off the table and bank them as physical gold. If your stocks and other investments are declining in gold value, consider selling them and buying gold with the proceeds. You won't be making any money by doing this, but you will not be in a losing position, either. You will simply be holding the best, safest form of cash, keeping your powder dry until the time is right to invest in other assets that will appreciate in terms of gold.

You may want to diversify some of your savings into silver as well. Silver is more volatile than gold, and as it has significant industrial uses, and most of its production is as a side of-effect of base metal mining, its price is more strongly influenced by the state of the economy in general than is gold, which is primarily a monetary metal. Still, silver has a long monetary tradition, and because it is less rare than gold, it is more useful in smaller, everyday transactions. This is why the US issued silver dimes, quarters, half-dollars and dollars, but used gold for five, ten and twenty dollar coins.

Holding gold and silver is a great start, and provides you with a form of savings that is insulated from the devaluations and defaults of governments, both subtle and blatant. This will give you options and expand your freedom, but it is not enough. Money is a wonderful thing, but it is not the only thing, or even the most important thing! Think about what is most dear to you… and try to set up a framework that will give you options to maximize that.

Protect yourself from the coming blizzard of restrictions and regulations while there is still time to maneuver. You want to be able to decide where you will live, where you will travel, who you will associate with and do business with, as well as what money you will use, and where you will keep it. Having viable choices is what freedom is all about.

The key is to act before it is too late, before everyone else is rushing to the exits. Do not allow yourself to be lulled into a sleepy daze by the entertainment spread around you by the media. Do not drowse in the warmth of the water in the pot as it heats slowly toward the boiling point. Do not allow the other crabs in the pot to pull you back in if you decide the time has come to make a break for it.

Do it for yourself. Do it for your family. Do it for future generations. But get started now!

Subscriber Ian Shearer recently wrote to point out that although the site covers the price of Oil, the world's most traded commodity, we're missing the number 2 commodity, coffee! Given the number of espressos we make around here every day, that is an omission that had to be corrected.

And it has been!

The Coffee Chart shows a remarkably stable price since 2002, generally hovering in the area of 50 mg/lb. In 2005 the price almost doubled, peaking at 95.8 on March 17, but by December had fallen back to the mid-50s. Since 2006, the price of coffee has been gradually working it's way lower, putting in a recent low of 33.3 on June 8 and ending June at 41.

Coffee futures are quoted in USD, in the form of cents per pound. In 2002, the USD's value was about 100 mg of gold, making 1mg roughly equal to 1 US cent. For instance, on May 17, 2002, the price of coffee was 48.47 mg/lb or 48.40 cents/lb. But what a difference 8 years makes! Although coffee prices ended June 2010 at 41.055 mg/lb, down 15% from the May 2002 price, the "fun-house mirror" USD price ended June at 164.20, apparently up 239%.

Keep in mind that a pound of coffee is still a pound of coffee, and can be roasted and ground up to brew the same number of cups in 2010 as in 2002. A gram of gold is still a gram of gold, and can make the same fillings, or jewelry, or plate the same number of electrical contacts in 2010 as in 2002. In 2010 there is a slight shift in preference in favor of gold over coffee, but we're talking about 15%.

The US Dollar, on the other hand, has lost about 75% of it's purchasing power over the same time period, that is, it takes $4 today to buy what $1 bought in 2002. Holding onto dollars is playing with lighted matches! And measuring your investment performance in dollars virtually guarantees that you will have a mistaken impression of how well you are doing, and will make it virtually impossible to accurately judge when to buy and when to sell.

Don't be fooled! Always price in gold!

Today, in addition to relaxing with family and friends and planning a pyrotechnic orgy for this evening, I've been reading Thomas Jefferson's Declaration of Independence, and updating the charts here on the Priced in Gold site. I've also been listening to Harry Browne's "How to Rule Your World" audio course, which I highly recommend.

As a result of all of these activities I want to offer a suggestion: Choosing your own money is a great place to start your search for personal independence!

Money is the universal substitute for the other resources you will need to pursue the happiness and liberty you desire, and that pursuit is your unalienable right.

You must expend your limited resources to gain for yourself as much happiness as possible, and often this will be done through the use of money as an intermediary. Along the way, you will have to weigh alternatives, to see what the costs and benefits of various courses of action are, and money is often used to quantify these costs and benefits.

Be sure you are making the best decisions possible, by using the best form of money available to you… Through the centuries, gold has been chosen more often than any other form, because it is durable, divisible and cannot be created at whim.

Regardless of the character (or lack of it) of the currency in circulation around you, you can choose gold as your personal money, for use in reckoning accounts, measuring value, and saving for the future. Doing so will set you on a path to independence that would make our forefathers proud!

Filed under monetary universe by  #

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On May 31st, Dr. Marc Faber, one of my favorite economists and a very engaging speaker, gave a landmark presentation at the Mises Circle on Austrian Economics and Finance. In this talk, Dr. Faber details the coming economic catastrophe, and what to do about it.

Using gold pricing to get an accurate measure of your investment performance will enable you to do more than just survive the upheavals ahead – you will be able to make a fortune!

I urge you to watch the video, understand where the actions of governments and central banks are taking us, and most importantly, I urge you to look over your portfolio, to look over your life, and take action!

If you have questions or comments, send me an email, leave a comment, or call the Priced in Gold Hotline at 888-868-5656.

A subscriber recently sent me link to an article in the Wall Street Journal by Brett Arends titled "Why I Don't Trust Gold". This is the second part of a three part series, but as I write this, the third installment has not yet been published.

Although I agree with most of what he says, I would of course put it in different terms – for instance Mr. Arends says, "Gold is volatile. It's hard to value." and I would say, "The US Dollar is volatile. It's hard to value." Both statements are equivalent, depending only on whether you are valuing gold in terms of dollars, or dollars in terms of gold.

But the question is, which viewpoint will history record as the "right" one? On this score, I am completely convinced that he is wrong. There is NO example of ANY fiat money system EVER, in all of human history, that has not self-destructed. So in spite of his claim (in part one) that "It (gold) has a 'This time is different' story line", he is the one who is arguing that "it is different this time", not those who see gold as real money.

Of course the dollar can rally in value, even for decades at a time. But in the end, it will disappear like all the other attempts at a centrally planned and controlled currency, for the same reasons that centrally planned economies fail. When people are free to use anything they want for money, gold always seems to prevail. I don't think this time will be any different.

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