Weekly Update 16 Nov 2018

Cryptocurrency markets were hit hard this week, as Ethereum (down 17.4%) and Bitcoin (off 13.5%) closed at new lows for the year (More on this below.) Crude oil was also hit hard, falling 7.0%. Most other asset classes were also lower, but there were exceptions, including palladium, which rose 4.0%, and copper, which gained 3.4%.

The Chinese Yuan was the only rising national currency, adding 0.5% this week. The US Dollar dropped the most, giving up 0.9%. US bonds did better than cash, as the 1-3 year treasuries fell 0.6%, and the 20+ year treasuries gained 0.3%.

Bitcoin and Ethereum followed similar trajectories, holding up well until Wednesday, then falling hard Thursday and finishing the week down 17.4% and 13.5% respectively. Several factors have been called out for this drop, including the hard fork of BCH that occurred on Thursday which may indirectly affect Bitcoin mining difficulty, and the SEC action to reclassify two utility tokens (Paragon and Airfox, both based on Ethereum) as securities – which will require refunding millions of dollars raised in their ICOs as well as payment of large fines. The SEC action has put much of the crypto space into a scramble to raise cash, as further enforcement actions are expected. Bitcoin and Ethereum are not directly affected by the SEC action, but it has caused selling of BTC, and ETH in particular, as they are the main liquid assets held by many blockchain startups – especially those whose tokens are built on the Ethereum blockchain.

Gold stocks were higher by 2.7%, but all the major stock indexes were lower, led by the Dow Jones Industrials, which fell 3.1%. The Euro STOXX 50 dropped the least, closing down 1.6%.

Commodities were mixed, with crude oil plunging 7.0% and cotton falling 3.4%, while palladium surged 4.0% and copper gained 3.4%. Silver and platinum were lower, down 1.3% and 2.7% respectively. Palladium is now at its highest level in 15 years, approaching parity with gold.

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Weekly Update 9 Nov 2018

Most asset classes were higher this week. The exceptions were gold stocks and some of the commodities. Ethereum, up 6.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrials, up 4.6%, topped the rising list. The biggest losses were in coffee, off 3.5%, and crude oil, down 3.0%.

The USD (up 1.7%) rose more than any other national currency, while the Chinese Yuan (up 0.5%) gained the least. Short term bonds rose 1.7%, in line with USD cash, but long term bonds outperformed both, gaining 2.9%.

Bitcoin had a fairly calm week, ebbing and flowing, ending up 1.7%. Ethereum rose more consistently and further, adding 6.5%, for the best performance of any asset class this week.

Gold stocks fell 2.4%, but the other stock indexes were all higher. The DJIA was up 4.6% and the S&P 500 added 3.9%. The Japanese Nikkei rose least, gaining 1.7%.

Commodities were mixed, with coffee down 3.5% while palladium rose 2.4%. Crude oil and copper were also big losers, off 3.0% and 2.5% respectively. Silver was down 1.6% while platinum managed a 0.8% gain.

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Weekly Update 2 Nov 2018

Stocks caught a break this week, recouping some of their losses from the prior week. The largest price swings were in commodities, as crude oil sank 6.5% and platinum rose 5.1%. Bitcoin and Ethereum were lower, but only by 1.2%.

The only falling national currency was the Japanese Yen, off 1.3%. The Chinese Yuan rose the most, gaining 0.7%. The US Dollar was little changed, rising just 0.1%. Short term bonds were unchanged, while long term bonds fell 2.2%.

Bitcoin and Ethereum both fell early in the week, then each recovered to finish the week down 1.2%. DASH followed a similar pattern. Cryptocurrencies continue to be about as volatile as national currencies, and less so than commodities and equities.

Stock indexes all rose this week, recovering some of the prior week's losses. The Japanese Nikkei 225 gained the most, adding 3.6%. Gold stocks were 3.5% higher. The smallest gains were made by the Dow Jones Industrials, up 2.5%.

Most commodities were higher, with crude oil, down 6.5%, being the exception. Platinum rose more than any other asset class, gaining 5.1%. Copper and palladium also had good weeks, rising 2.3% and 2.1% respectively. Coffee and cotton trailed the pack, adding 0.5% apiece.

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Weekly Update 26 Oct 2018

A lower week for most assets, with stocks taking the brunt of the losses, especially gold stocks which fell 7.5%. The largest rises were in long term bonds, up 0.6%, and the Japanese Yen, which rose 0.5%. Cryptocurrencies had a quiet week, closing down, but about in line with most national currencies.

The Yen was the only rising currency (up 0.5%) and the Euro had the largest losses, falling 1.6%. USD cash fell 0.5%, while 1-3 year bonds fell 0.3% and 20+ year bonds rose 0.6%.

Bitcoin fell 0.3%, outperforming all national currencies except the Yen. Ethereum dropped 0.6%, beating the Euro and CNY, and on par with the CAD.

Stocks took the heavy damage this week, led by the HUI gold stocks, which dropped 7.5%. The Japanese Nikkei was off 5.5%, the second largest drop. The Dow Jones Industrials were the best performers, falling 3.4%.

Commodities were mixed, with Crude Oil falling 2.7% and coffee dropping 2.5%, while cotton rose 0.3% and palladium gained 0.2%. Platinum lost 1.7% and silver was little changed, rising 0.1%.

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Weekly Update 19 Oct 2018

A lower week for all assets except cryptocurrencies and two standouts: coffee, which continues to soar (up another 4.1%) and gold stocks, which rose 0.8%. The largest declines were in crude oil, which fell 3.8%, and the Nikkei Index, which was off 1.7%.

National currencies were all lower, led by the Canadian Dollar and Chinese Yuan, which dropped 1.3% each. The USD fell least, giving up 0.7%. 1-3 year bonds also fell 0.7%, in line with USD cash, and 20+ year treasuries were 1.3% lower.

Cryptocurrencies were broadly higher this week. Both Ethereum and Bitcoin rose early in the week, then gave back some of those gains as the week progressed. In addition to Ethereum's 2.9% rise and Bitcoin's 2.4% gain, privacy coins like ZCash, Zcoin and PIVX also rose.

Gold stocks gained 0.8%, but all the major stock indexes were lower, led by the Nikkei 225, which fell 1.7%. The Dow Jones Industrials fell least, giving up 0.3%.

Commodities saw the largest price swings, as coffee rose another 4.1% on top of the prior week's 5.6% gain, and crude continued to fall, dropping another 3.8% after the prior week's 5.3% drop. Metals were all lower, led by copper, off 1.5%. Palladium and silver dropped the least, falling 0.5% and 0.6% respectively.

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Weekly Update 12 Oct 2018

This was a "mostly lower" week, with currencies, bonds and cryptos falling, while stocks and commodities were mixed. The largest drops were in cryptocurrencies, as Ethereum fell 14.7% and Bitcoin dropped 6.5%. The largest gains were in coffee, up 5.6%, and gold stocks, which gained 5.5%.

Most national currencies fell, with the Canadian Dollar, off 2.0%, dropping the most. The Japanese Yen was the only one to rise, and then only by 0.1%. Bonds were all lower, with the USD (notes of zero maturity) falling 1.3%, 1-3 year dropping 1.2%, and 30+ year off 0.1%.

Bitcoin held it's value quite well until Wednesday, then dropped sharply on Thursday and Friday, ending the week at 160 grams, down 6.5%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, hitting a high of 6 grams on Monday and Tuesday, then collapsing on Thursday to a low of 4.9 grams, and recovering to finish the week at 5.0 grams, off 14.7%.

Equities were highly polarized, as gold stocks rose 5.5% while all major stock indexes fell sharply. The largest drops were in the US, as the DJIA and S&P 500 each fell 5.4%.

Coffee was the fastest rising commodity, gaining 5.6%. Crude oil saw the largest losses, falling 5.3%. Silver was also took a hit, dropping 1.5%. Copper was little changed, up 0.2%, while platinum and palladium rose 0.4% and 0.8% respectively.

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Weekly Update 5 Oct 2018

This week, cryptocurrencies were much less volatile than bonds, stocks and commodities. The largest losses were in long term bonds, off 4.7%, while the biggest gains were in coffee, up 4.9%. Bitcoin, in contrast, finished the week down 1.7%.

National currencies were all lower, led by the Euro, which fell 2.3%. The USD, CAD, and CNY fell least, dropping 1.4% each (the CNY price is estimated, since the Shanghai Gold Exchange was closed all week for national holiday). Bonds were also lower, with the short term SHY falling 1.5%, and the long term TLT dropping a whopping 4.7%, the largest drop in any asset class… and this is supposed to be the "risk free" asset?

Bitcoin, often a highly volatile asset, fell gradually early in the week, hitting a low of 168.4 grams on Wednesday, the recovered to finish the week at 171.1 grams, off 1.7%. Ethereum got a boost over the weekend, then fell to a Wednesday low of 5.71 grams, recovering to end the week at 5.84 grams, up 0.9%.

Major stock indexes were lower; the HUI gold stocks bucked this trend, rising 0.3% for the week. The Euro STOXX50 fell the most, dropping 3.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell the least, giving up 1.4%.

Commodities were mixed, with coffee in the starring role, rising 4.9%, the largest gain of any asset in this table. Palladium fell 4.3%, the second largest loss of the week. Copper continued its decline, giving up 2.6%. Crude oil was little changed, up 0.1%, and silver managed a 0.9% gain.

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Weekly Update 28 Sep 2018

This week, bonds were higher, cryptos were lower, and other asset classes were mixed. Palladium was the big winner, rising 5.7%. Ethereum fell the most, dropping 8.9%, giving up about half of the prior week's 16.8% gain.

National currencies were mostly higher, with the exceptions being the Euro, off 0.3%, and the Japanese Yen, which was unchanged. The Chinese Yuan gained the most, rising 1.2%. Short term bonds and USD cash rose 1.0% while long term bonds added 1.1%.

Bitcoin moved lower early in the week, closing at 166.8 grams on Tuesday, then rallied to finish the week at 174.1 grams, off 0.4%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, closing at 5.6 grams on Wednesday, followed by a weaker rally to close at 5.8 grams, down 8.9%.

The Nikkei 225 was the strongest equity index, rising 1.1%. The Euro STOXX fell the most, dropping 1.1%. The S&P 500 added 0.4% while the Dow Jones Industrials were off 0.1%.

The week's biggest gains were all in commodities, as palladium gained 5.7%, crude oil spiked 4.5%, and coffee rose 3.5%. Cotton was the weakest commodity, falling 2.6%.

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Weekly Update 14 Sep 2018

This week, stocks were higher, bonds were lower, and other asset classes were mixed. The biggest moves were in commodities, as platinum rose 3.5% and coffee dropped 2.9%. Ethereum continued to take a pummeling, falling 2.8% on top of the prior week's 23% loss.

The strongest national currency was Canada's Loonie; the CAD rose 0.7%. Weakest was the Japanese Yen, which fell 1.1%. The USD dropped 0.3%, as did its short term bonds. Long term treasury bonds fell 0.7%.

Bitcoin stumbled early in the week, but then rose steadily to finish at 168.5 grams, up 0.5%. Ethereum fell to a low of 4.77 grams on Wednesday, but recovered to close at 5.48 grams, down 2.8%.

Stocks had a very good week, with the Dow Jones Industrials and the HUI gold stocks rising 0.7% – the weakest performance for the indexes tracked here. The Japanese Nikkei rose the most, gaining 2.4%. The Euro STOXX 50 also had a good week, adding 2.0%.

As mentioned above, commodities saw the largest price swings, as platinum, which has been hovering near its all-time lows, gained 3.5% to close at 20.8 grams, and coffee dropped 2.9%, edging out Ethereum for the title of worst performer overall. Crude oil was strong, rising 1.6%. Silver was unchanged for the week.

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Weekly Update 7 Sep 2018

This was a pretty lack-luster week. National currencies, bonds and commodities were mixed, while cryptocurrencies and most equities were sharply lower. The largest gains were in coffee, up just 0.9%. The largest losses were in Ethereum, which fell 23% this week, leaving it down 46% in the last month.

The US Dollar rose more than any other national currency, gaining 0.3%. The Canadian Dollar was weakest, falling 0.6%. Short term bonds rose 0.2%, while long term bonds fell 1.9%.

Bitcoin rose early in the week, closing at 192.3 grams on Tuesday, then fell to finish the week at 167.8 grams, off 7.8%. Ethereum also started the week on a rising note, but was hit hard on Wednesday and Friday, and ended the week down 23%.

The Dow Jones Industrials where the only stocks in the black this week, and then, only by 0.1%. Gold stocks took the worst beating, as the HUI fell 4.6% to close at 3.53 grams. Next weakest was the Euro STOXX 50, off 3.2%.

Silver dropped 2.9% this week, the largest of the commodity losses. Crude oil wasn't far behind, though, falling 2.6%. Coffee was the strongest commodity, gaining 0.9%. Platinum made a series of new all-time lows this week, closing at 20.117 grams per ounce on Wednesday, before rallying slightly to close the week at 20.132 grams, down 1.7%.

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