Weekly Update 8-Mar-2019

Cryptocurrencies and bonds were higher while other asset categories were mixed. The largest gains were in gold stocks, which advanced 4.5%, and long term bonds, which rose 3.9%. Platinum fell 4.1%, the week's biggest loss.

The Japanese Yen was the best performing national currency, rising 1.9%. The Canadian Dollar and the Euro fell 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. The US Dollar rose 1.2%, while short term bonds gained 1.6% and long term bonds zoomed higher, adding 3.9%, the second best performance among all asset classes.

Bitcoin waffled about early in the week, but shot up on Tuesday and continued to rise, hitting a high of 94.7 grams on Thursday before settling back to close the week at 93.6 grams, up 2.3%. Ethereum lost ground early, gained it back on Tuesday, and finished the week up 0.2%.

All the major stock indexes were lower, led by the Dow Jones Industrials which closed down 1.1%. The only rising stocks were gold stocks, as the HUI gained 4.5%, the largest advance of any asset class.

In the commodities, the biggest moves were in crude oil, rising 2.7%, and platinum, falling 4.1% and giving back most of the prior week's gains. Palladium and silver each fell 1.7%.

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Weekly Update 1 Mar 2019

National currencies and major stock markets were higher, cryptocurrencies lower, and bonds and commodities were mixed. The largest gains were in the PGMs, as palladium rose 6.2% and platinum gained 5.3%. The worst losses were in Ethereum, which gave back some of last week's massive gains, closing down 7.3%, and gold stocks, which fell 4.4%.

The Euro was the strongest national currency, gaining 1.7%. The Japanese Yen was weakest, adding 0.3%. US Dollar cash, more accurately described as notes of zero maturity, rose 1.3%. 1-3 year treasury notes rose 1.0%, and long term bonds fell 1.1%.

Cryptocurrencies pulled back this week, giving up some of the prior week's huge gains. Ethereum fell 7.3%, while Bitcoin dropped 2.4%.

Although gold stocks fell 4.4% this week, all the major stock indexes were higher, led by the Euro STOXX 50 which gained 3.1%. The Nikkei rose the least, up 1.1%. The S&P 500 advanced 1.7%.

Commodities were mostly higher, with crude oil (off 1.3%) and silver (down 0.7%) being the exceptions. The platinum group metals stole the show, as palladium gained 6.2% and platinum added 5.3%, the largest gains of any assets covered here. Cotton also did well, rising 2.5%.

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Weekly Update 22 Feb 2019

National currencies and bonds were lower, stocks were mixed, and cryptocurrencies and commodities were higher. In some cases, much higher! Ethereum surged 21% to close at 3.5 grams, and copper rose 4.4%. The largest losses were in the 20+ year treasury bonds, which fell 1.3%.

The worst performing national currency was the Japanese Yen, which fell 1.1%. The Canadian Dollar dropped the least, closing down 0.2%. USD cash was off 0.9%, while its short term bonds did a little better, giving up 0.8%, and its long term bonds did much worse, falling 1.3%.

Ethereum worked its way higher from 2.9 grams to 3.5 grams, closing up 21.0%. Bitcoin also moved higher throughout the week, with much of its move on Monday; it ended up 9.6%. Some alt-coins, like DASH, hit their highs mid week, but still managed sizable gains (8.6% in the case of DASH).

Gold stocks dominated the equity asset category, rising 2.9%. The major indexes were split geographically, with US indexes down while Japan and Europe rose. The Dow Industrials fell 0.4%, while the Nikkei index was up 1.4%.

Commodities were all higher, led by copper (up 4.4%) and platinum (up 4.3%). Silver was the weakest, rising just 0.3%. Cotton was another strong performer, gaining 3.0%.

Looking back over the last year, the largest losses have been in the cryptocurrencies, as Ethereum and Bitcoin have fallen 82.4% and 60% respectively. Palladium was far and away the largest winner, rising 43.4%; but it was the only commodity in the black (coffee and platinum had the largest losses, 17.3% and 16.2% respectively). The second best returns came from TLT, the long term bond fund, which gained 6.9%. Holding USD cash just about broke even, losing 0.1% for the year. All other major national currencies were worse, with the Euro, down 8.0%, the worst of the lot. Even the British Pound Sterling (not shown in the chart below) did better than the Euro, falling 6.5% in the last year.

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Weekly Update 15 Feb 2019

National currencies and bonds were lower, major stock indexes were higher, and cryptos were mixed… but the big price moves were in commodities. Crude oil soared 5.7% while coffee and cotton fell 4.3% and 3.3% respectively. Platinum dropped to another new all-time low, while palladium gained 3.0% to reach a new 15-year high.

As mentioned above, all currencies fell this week, led by the Japanese Yen, which closed down 0.9% and the Euro, which dropped 0.7%. The USD fell least, giving up just 0.1%, while the Chinese Yuan declined 0.2%. Bonds did worse than USD cash, as the short term SHY was off 0.2% and the long term TLT fell 0.4%.

Bitcoin rose early in the week, then gradually declined to close down 1.4%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, rising to 2.95 grams on Sunday, then declining slowly to finish the week at 2.89 grams, up 2.2%.

Gold stocks were the only equities to finish lower, as the HUI closed down 0.7%. The Dow Industrials rose 3.0%, and the Euro STOXX50 ended up 2.5%. The Nikkei had the smallest gains for a major index, rising 1.9%.

Crude oil powered higher each day, rising 5.7% for the week. Palladium also made major gains, closing up 3.0%, a new 15-year high. The largest losses were in coffee, off 4.3%, and cotton, down 3.3%. Platinum also fell, giving up 1.5% and setting a new all-time low of 18.55 grams on Thursday.

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Weekly Update 8 Feb 2019

Cryptocurrency prices turned sharply higher at the end of the week, leaving Ethereum up 11.2% and Bitcoin up 5.4%. Bonds were also higher, but other asset classes were mixed. Crude oil and platinum saw the largest losses, as crude fell 4.3% and platinum dropped to a new all-time low of 18.9 grams, down 2.9%.

The USD was the strongest national currency, rising 0.3%. The Canadian Dollar and the Euro were weakest, falling 1.0% and 0.9% respectively. The Yen and Yuan were unchanged (Chinese markets were closed all week for Lunar New Year, but were virtually unchanged when reopening on Monday the 11th). Bonds were higher, with the short term SHY rising 0.6% and the long term TLT gaining 1.7%.

Cryptos settled slowly through most of the week, then jetted higher on Friday, in part due to positive comments from the SEC on the eventual likelihood of a Bitcoin ETF. This left Bitcoin up 5.4% and Ethereum up 11.2%, making them the best performing assets for the week.

Japanese and European stocks fell 2.2% and 1.4% respectively. US stocks were the best performers, as the Dow gained 0.5% and the S&P added 0.3%. Gold stocks were up 0.1%.

Crude oil plunged 4.3%, the largest drop of any asset class. Platinum also had a bad week, falling 2.9% to a new all-time low of 18.9 grams. Palladium had a very strong week, rising 2.2% leaving it in third place after the cryptos. Copper also did well, rising 1.7%. Silver was down 1.1%.

Note that I am once again updating the Argentine and Chilean Pesos!

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Weekly Update 1 Feb 2019

Commodities were mixed and gold stocks were sharply higher, but all other assets were lower. Ethereum, which dropped 9.3%, had the largest losses. The best performers were gold stocks, which rose 4.7%, and silver which gained 2.2%.

The US Dollar and Chinese Yuan fell more than other national currencies, dropping 1.9% apiece. The Canadian Dollar fell the least, declining 0.7%. Short term bonds were down 1.9%, in line with the USD. Long term bonds did slightly better, falling 1.5%.

Ethereum fell from last week's 2.80 grams to 2.51 grams on Wednesday, then recovered to close at 2.54 grams, down 9.3%. Bitcoin hit its low of 81.3 grams on Thursday, then rallied to finish the week at 82.3 grams, off 4.9%.

Gold stocks rose strongly this week, as the HUI hit a high of 4.01 grams on Thursday before slipping to close at 3.99 grams on Friday, for a weekly gain of 4.7%. All the major stock indexes were lower, led by the Japanese Nikkei, which fell 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrials lost 0.6%.

Soft commodities were hit hard this week, as coffee fell 4.7% and cotton declined 2.5%. Silver and crude oil were the largest winners, gaining 2.2% and 1.0% respectively.

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Weekly Update 25 Jan 2019

Once again, cryptocurrencies were lower while other asset classes were mixed. The biggest drops were in Ethereum, down 4.5%, and palladium, off 3.9%. The HUI gold stocks were the week's biggest winners, rising 4.4%.

The Chinese Yuan was the only rising national currency, gaining 0.5%. The Canadian Dollar and Japanese Yen fell the most, each closing down 0.8%. The US Dollar was off 0.7% as were it's 1-3 year bonds. TLT, composed of 20+ year bonds, rose 0.1%.

There were no shocking moves in cryptos this week, just a gradual settling of prices. Bitcoin ended down 2.3% while Ethereum closed 4.5% lower. Some smaller coins even managed gains, like DASH which closed up 2.3%.

Gold stocks outperformed all other asset classes this week, rising 4.4%. The European STOXX also managed a gain of 0.3%, but all other indexes fell. The S&P 500 had the largest drop, giving up 1.0%. The DOW fell 0.6%.

Commodities were very mixed, though losses outnumbered gains. Coffee rose 1.0% and platinum gained 0.6%. Its sister metal, palladium, fell 3.9%, but still held its price well above that of gold, closing at 32 grams. Silver also declined, dropping 1.4%.

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Weekly Update 18 Jan 2019

Cryptos were lower this week, while other asset classes were mixed. The biggest drops were in the gold stocks (off 5.1%) and Ethereum (down 4.8%). Crude oil, which rose 4.1%, and palladium, which gained 4.0%, were the week's biggest winners.

North American currencies were higher, as the USD and CAD rose 0.4% each. The others tracked here were lower, led by the Japanese Yen, which closed down 0.8%. Not tracked here is the British Pound Sterling, which rose 1.0% for the week, possibly due to the sound defeat of PM Theresa May's Brexit "deal". Short term bonds rose 0.3%, while long term bonds fell 0.8%.

Cryptocurrencies dipped sharply on Sunday, then recovered through the week. Ethereum finished the week down 4.8% while Bitcoin closed off 0.4%.

Although gold stocks dropped 5.1%, the largest decline of any asset tracked here, all other equity indexes were higher. The Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 led the field, rising 3.3% and 3.2% respectively.

Crude oil (which rose 4.1%) and palladium (which gained 4.0%) were the week's strongest commodities (and strongest assets overall). Copper also showed strength, rising 2.5%. On the downside, platinum fell 2.2% while silver declined 1.0%.

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Weekly Update 11 Jan 2019

Results for the first full week of trading in 2019 were mixed for currencies, stocks and commodities, but lower for cryptos and bonds. Ethereum, the prior week's biggest gainer, was this week's worst loser, giving back all of its gains and then some, closing down 18.1%. Bitcoin was in second place, dropping 5.1%. Commodities were the best performers, as crude oil added another 6.6% on top of last week's 5.7% gain, and palladium rose 3.8% to close at 32.0 grams, solidly above parity with gold.

The Chinese Yuan was the strongest national currency, rising 1.9%, while the Japanese Yen was weakest, falling 1.0%. The US Dollar dropped 0.7%. Short term treasuries also fell 0.7%, but 20+ Year bonds did much worse, closing down 1.7%.

As mentioned previously, cryptocurrencies felt the most pain of any asset class. Bitcoin rallied to a high of 99.1 grams on Sunday, the sold off through the week to finish at 89.0 grams, down 5.1%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, hitting a high of 3.8 grams on Sunday, but declining to 3.1 grams by the end of the week, for a loss of 18.1%

The HUI gold stock index closed down 2.5%, but all other major indexes were in the black. The Nikkei led the field, gaining 3.1%, followed by the S&P 500 which added 1.8% and the Dow Industrials which rose 1.7%.

Commodities, while mixed, had the largest gains of any asset group. Crude oil continued its strong recovery, gaining 6.6%, and palladium also soared, adding 3.8%, and closing solidly above the 31.1 gram gold parity level. On the other side of the ledger, cotton fell 1.0% and silver dropped 0.9%.

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Weekly Update 4 Jan 2019

Another short trading week over New Years has given mixed results for most asset classes. The largest gains were once again in Ethereum, which rose 12.2%. Crude oil reversed course to gain 5.7%. The largest losses were in Bitcoin, down 1.8%, and the Chinese Yuan, off 1.5%.

The Chinese Yuan was the weakest of all national currencies this week, falling 1.5%. Its neighbor, the Japanese Yen was the strongest, rising 2.0%. The Canadian Dollar also did well, gaining 1.8%. The US Dollar was little changed, declining 0.1%. Short term bonds were unchanged and long term bonds, as measured by TLT, gained 0.8%.

Bitcoin started the week strongly, then dipped to a low of 91.0 grams on Dec 31st, but recovered to finish the week at 93.7 grams, off 1.8%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, but fell less and gained more to end the week up 12.2%, the best performance of any asset class.

The only declining equity index was the Nikkei 225, which showed a small loss of 0.3%. Gold stocks were the best performers, adding 2.6%. The Euro STOXX barely outperformed their US counterparts, rising 1.9% compared to the 1.8% gain managed by the S&P 500.

Commodities were mostly higher. The extremes were copper, which fell 1.4%, and crude oil, which rose 5.7%. Silver was also a winner, gaining 2.6%. Platinum fell to a new all-time low of 19.0 grams on Wednesday, but recovered to finish the week up 1.5% at 19.4 grams.

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