Weekly Update 12 Jul 2019

Bonds were lower, but all other asset categories were mixed. Bitcoin and crude oil had the largest gains, as BTC rallied 6.2% and crude added 3.3%. The biggest losses were in cotton, which fell 6.6%, and Ethereum, which dropped 5.4%.

The only rising national currency was China's Yuan, which gained 0.6%. The largest currency losses were in the US Dollar, down 1.3%, and the Euro, off 1.1%. Short term bonds tracked USD cash, falling 1.3%, but the long term TLT did much worse, dropping 3.0%.

Bitcoin rose early in the week, hitting a high of 281 grams on Tuesday, then pulled back to close at 261.1 grams, up 6.2%. ETH followed a similar trajectory, hitting a high of 7.0 grams on Monday, but got slammed on Wednesday and Thursday, ending the week at 6.1 grams, down 5.4%. Some other cryptos did even worse; for example, DASH (not shown on the chart below) didn't rise much early in the week, but took a large hit on Wednesday and Thursday, finishing the week off 7.2%.

Gold stocks were this week's equity winners, gaining 2.6%. The Dow Industrials also rose a bit, gaining 0.2%. The Euro STOXX fell the most, dropping 1.9%.

Commodities were mostly lower, but crude oil was the exception, rising 3.3%. Cotton was hardest hit, falling 6.6%, but coffee wasn't far behind, dropping 5.5%. Platinum fell 3.0% to close at 18.1 grams/oz, just 2.4% above its all-time low. Silver fell to a low of 333 mg/oz on Wednesday before rallying to close at 335 mg, down 1.8%, and the lowest level seen since February of 1991, when it briefly traded at 309 mg.

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Weekly Update 5 Jul 2019

Cryptocurrencies were lower, stocks and bonds were higher, and national currencies and commodities were mixed. Bitcoin had the largest loss, pulling back 10.2% this week, but was still up 34.9% from one month ago. The biggest gains were in cotton, which rose 6.4%, and palladium, which added 4.8%.

The only falling national currency was the Chinese Yuan, which dropped 0.1%. The US Dollar fared best, gaining 1.5%. Bonds were up, but did worse than the underlying USD cash, as the long term TLT gained 1.4% and the short term SHY added 1.3%.

The week's largest losses were in the cryptocurrencies, as they paused for breath after a multi-week sprint higher. Bitcoin saw a low of 236.8 grams on Monday, then rallied through the week to close at 245.9 grams, off 10.2%. Ethereum closed down 6.1%.

Stock markets were all higher, led by the S&P 500, which gained 3.1%. Trailing the major market indexes were the HUI gold stocks, which added just 0.9%.

Commodities were mostly higher, with the exceptions being copper, down 0.6%, and crude oil, off 0.2%. Cotton was the week's big winner, gaining 6.4%. The PGMs also did well, as palladium rose 4.8% and platinum added 3.2%. Silver was up 1.4%.

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Weekly Update 21 Jun 2019

Cryptocurrencies moved to new highs for the YTD, national currencies and bonds slid lower, and stocks and commodities were mixed. Bitcoin topped the winner's list, rising 12.9%. Crude oil and gold stocks also rose strongly, gaining 5.8% each. The largest losses were in cotton, which plummeted 10.3%.

All national currencies were lower, with the US Dollar falling the most, closing down 3.3%. The Canadian Dollar fell least, giving up 2.2%. US Treasury bonds were also down, as the short term SHY declined 3.1% and the long term TLT fell 3.3%.

Cryptocurrencies soared again the week, as Bitcoin surged 12.9% to a new high for 2019 of 225.8 grams, then continued to rise over the weekend. Ethereum rose 8.0%, the week's second largest gain. The announcement of Facebook's Libra coin was seen as a major factor for these gains, as it promises to bring crypto into mainstream usage, but does not compete with Bitcoin and Ethereum for privacy and operational capability, and has little appeal as an investment, being tied in value to basket of national currencies.

Gold stocks rose strongly, gaining 5.8%, but all major stock indexes were lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Euro STOXX fell 2.1% each. The S&P 500 was off 1.2%.

Crude oil gained 5.8%, and tied with gold stocks for third place overall. Cotton swooned 10.3%, closing at 13.6 mg/lb. Cotton is now down 33.4% from one year ago, a record exceeded only by Ethereum, which in spite of its recent gains, is still down 49.8% over the last 12 months. Platinum fell 3.6% to a new all-time low of 17.9 grams. Silver dropped 1.6% and palladium gained 0.3%.

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Weekly Update 14 Jun 2019

Cryptocurrencies moved higher, national currencies and bonds slid lower, and stock indexes and commodities were mixed. Bitcoin topped the winner's list, rising 7.2%. Palladium also rose strongly, gaining 5.9%. The largest losses were in coffee, which fell 5.6%.

National currencies all fell this week, led by the Euro, which dropped 1.8% (actually, the British Pound Sterling, not shown on the chart, did a bit worse, sliding 1.9%). The US Dollar outperformed, dropping just 0.8%. Bonds mostly traded in line with the Dollar, giving up 0.8% for the short term SHY, and 1.0% for the long term TLT.

Cryptos recovered a good chunk of their losses from the prior week. Bitcoin slid early in the week to a low of 178.4 grams, then rallied to close at 200.1 grams, up 7.2%. The gains continued over the weekend as well, finishing Monday at 216.1 grams. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, gaining 4.4% to end the week at 6.1 grams.

Stocks were mixed, as the HUI gold index rose 2.0%, while the Euro STOXX fell 1.6%. The Dow Jones Industrials were up 0.8%, but the S&P 500 declined 0.3%

Commodities had the largest prices moves outside of the cryptos. Palladium surged 5.9% to close at 33.3 grams/oz, while coffee dropped 5.6%. Platinum fell 0.5% to close at 18.6 grams/oz, right on its all time low, and fell further on Monday, setting a new all time low. Silver was unchanged for the week.

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Weekly Update 7 June 2019

This was a rough week for all assets except equities, and even they had mixed results, as the Japanese Nikkei index dropped 1.5% while the HUI gold stocks rose 3.9%. All other asset classes were lower. Cryptocurrencies took the largest hit, as they pulled back after five straight weeks of solid gains. Ethereum had the largest loss, falling 9.6%.

The US Dollar dropped 3.4%, the worst performance for a national currency. The Euro and Canadian Dollar dropped least, giving up 1.7%. US Treasury bonds did slightly better than cash, falling 3.2% for both long and sort durations.

Cryptocurrencies closed lower this week, for the first time since 26-April. Early in the week, Bitcoin hit a high of 209.9 grams, then pulled back to close at 186.6 grams, down 9.3% — but still 45.9% higher than its close of 127.9 grams on 26-April. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, closing down 9.6% after a five week run totaling 53.6%.

Among equities, only the Japanese Nikkei was lower, falling 1.5%. All others rose, led by the HUI gold stocks, which gained 3.9%, the largest gain of any asset this week. The Dow Jones Industrials added 1.2%

Commodities were all lower, led by cotton and coffee, which fell 6.9% and 6.7% respectively. Silver fell the least, giving up 0.5%. Palladium fell 4.4% to close at 31.5 grams, just 0.6% above parity with gold.

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Weekly Update 31 May 2019

Cryptocurrencies continued to rise, national currencies fell, and other asset classes were mixed. The biggest price swings were in the commodities. Coffee soared 11.0% to score the week's largest gain. Crude oil continued to drop, falling 9.7% to close at 1.28 grams per barrel, the largest loss of the week.

All national currencies fell, led by the Euro, which tumbled 1.5%. The Japanese Yen fell least, closing off 0.3%. The USD was down 1.0%. Short term bonds did a bit better than cash, falling 0.6%. Long term bonds continued their winning streak, rising 2.1%

Cryptocurrencies continued to climb, but at a slightly more sedate pace. Bitcoin rose 6.3% and Ethereum gained 6.4%.

All major stock market indexes were lower; only the HUI gold stock index was higher, gaining 4.3%. The Dow Jones Industrials had the largest drop, falling 4.0%. The Japanese Nikkei slipped 3.6%, the least among the major indexes tracked here. The UK FTSE index (not shown) actually did a bit better, giving up just 3.3%.

The week's largest price swings were in commodities. Crude oil cratered, falling 9.7%. Coffee led all other assets, soaring 11.0% for the week. Palladium was up 2.0%, but the other metals were all lower, as copper fell 3.5%, and silver dropped 1.5%. Platinum ended the week at 19.0 grams, down 2.1%, and just 2.4% above its all-time low.

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Weekly Update 24 May 2019

Cryptocurrencies and bonds rose again, stocks were lower, and other asset classes were mixed. Bitcoin added 8.6% for the week's largest gain. The biggest losses were in crude oil, which fell 6.7%.

National currencies were quiet, with the Japanese Yen rising 0.4% and the Chinese Yuan falling 0.2%. The US Dollar was off 0.1%. Short term bonds were unchanged, but long term TLT gained 1.3%.

Cryptocurrencies were higher, led by Bitcoin, which rose 8.6% to close at 193.7 grams after hitting a high of 199.1 grams on Sunday the 19th. Ethereum also gained early in the week, but settled back to finish up 2.2%. Some other coins did even better than Bitcoin; for instance, DASH end the week up 13.3%.

Stock markets were all lower, led by the S&P 500 which dropped 1.3%. The Japanese Nikkei index fell the least, giving up 0.2%. The HUI gold stocks closed down 1.1%.

Crude oil was the weakest commodity, and was the weakest asset overall, falling 6.7%. The strongest commodities were coffee and cotton, which rose 4.7% and 3.5% respectively. Platinum was down 2.9% to 19.4 grams/oz. Silver gained 0.4%.

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Weekly Update 17 May 2019 Cryptos on Fire

Cryptocurrencies and bonds rose this week, while all other asset classes were mixed. Ethereum saw the largest gains, soaring 41.5%. The largest losses were in platinum and cotton, which fell 3.5% and 3.1% respectively.

The Chinese Yuan fell 1.5%, the largest national currency decline in the chart. The Euro was also down, closing 0.5% lower, but the worst losses were in the British Pound Sterling (not shown in the chart) which fell 1.8%. The US Dollar rose 0.5%, making it the best performer of the group. US bonds did much better, as the short term SHY gained 0.6% and the long tern TLT added 1.5%.

Cryptocurrencies roared higher this week. Bitcoin worked its way up to peak at 196.5 grams on Wednesday the 15th, the pulled back to close at 178.3 grams, up 15.7%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, peaking at 6.4 grams on Thursday the 16th, and closing the week at 5.9 grams, up a whopping 41.5%. Many other cryptos also moved higher; for example DASH rose 22.8%.

Outside of the cryptos, gold stocks put in the best performance of the week, rising 2.3%. The European STOXX index also rose, gaining 0.6%. All other indexes were lower, as the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 fell 0.3% each.

Crude oil matched the gold stock's 2.3% gain, but losers outnumbered winners among the commodities. The largest losses were in platinum, down 3.5% to 20.0 grams, and cotton, off 3.1%. Silver fell 1.6% and palladium rallied 0.8% to close at 32.0 grams, holding just above parity with gold.

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Weekly Update 10 May 2019

Cryptocurrencies continued to rise, but most other assets were lower, led by cotton, which fell 10.7%. Bitcoin gained 9.9% to close at another new high for the year. Gold stocks had the second largest losses, closing down 4.8%.

Among national currencies, only the Japanese Yen closed higher, adding 0.8%. The British Pound Sterling (not shown on the chart) dropped 1.3%, while the Chinese Yuan fell 1.1%. The Euro dropped the least, falling 0.2%. The USD was off 0.7%, while its short term bonds did worse, dropping 1.1%, and its long term bonds did a bit better, giving up 0.4%.

Cryptocurrencies again had the largest gains of any asset class, as Bitcoin rose 9.9% to 154.2 grams, a new high for the year, and Ethereum added 2.4% to close at 4.2 grams. This week, though, the smaller cryptos did not participate; DASH, for example, was down 7.5%. The rally continued over the weekend, and as of Monday the 13th, Bitcoin was up another 21.7% and many other cryptos were rising in its wake.

Among equities, gold stocks were hit the hardest, falling 4.8%, but all the stock exchanges I track were lower. The UK FTSE fell 3.7%, the Euro STOXX fell 3.6%, and in the US, the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 were each off 3.4%. The Nikkei fell the least, closing down 2.6%.

Silver was the best performing commodity, rising 0.3%. All others were lower, led by cotton which plummeted 10.7%. Palladium also saw large declines, falling below the price of gold on Thursday, before recovering to finish the week at 31.7 grams, off 4.1%.

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Weekly Update 3 May 2019 Crypto Surge

Commodities closed lower, as did gold stocks, but major stock indexes, bonds and currencies moved higher, led by the cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin rose 9.7% to its highest price so far in 2019, closing at 140.3 grams. The platinum group metals had the largest losses, as palladium fell 4.6% to close at 33.1 grams, just above parity with gold.

Chinese gold markets were closed for May Day celebrations, so the CNY price is listed as unchanged, but all other national currencies were higher, led by the Canadian Dollar, which gained 0.8%. The British Pound Sterling (not shown in the chart) rose even more, adding 1.9%. The USD trailed, rising 0.4%, but bonds rose much more than cash, as the short term SHY added 1.0% and the long term TLT gained 1.1%.

Cryptocurrencies had the largest gains of any asset class, as Bitcoin rose 9.7% to a new high for the year, and Ethereum added 7.9% to close at 4.1 grams. Some smaller cryptos did even better; for instance, DASH gained 11.2% for the week.

Although gold stocks were down hard, falling 3.5%, all the major stock indexes moved higher led by the Euro STOXX, which gained 2.2%. Second place was a tie between the S&P 500 and the UK FTSE, which rose 1.2% each. Japanese markets were closed for a series of holidays surrounding the accession of the new emperor, so the Nikkei price is listed as unchanged.

Commodity prices were all lower, with palladium and platinum falling the most, down 4.6% and 3.4% respectively. Crude oil had the smallest decline, falling 1.1%. Copper was off 1.2% while silver fell 1.9%.

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