Weekly Update 11 Jan 2019

Results for the first full week of trading in 2019 were mixed for currencies, stocks and commodities, but lower for cryptos and bonds. Ethereum, the prior week's biggest gainer, was this week's worst loser, giving back all of its gains and then some, closing down 18.1%. Bitcoin was in second place, dropping 5.1%. Commodities were the best performers, as crude oil added another 6.6% on top of last week's 5.7% gain, and palladium rose 3.8% to close at 32.0 grams, solidly above parity with gold.

The Chinese Yuan was the strongest national currency, rising 1.9%, while the Japanese Yen was weakest, falling 1.0%. The US Dollar dropped 0.7%. Short term treasuries also fell 0.7%, but 20+ Year bonds did much worse, closing down 1.7%.

As mentioned previously, cryptocurrencies felt the most pain of any asset class. Bitcoin rallied to a high of 99.1 grams on Sunday, the sold off through the week to finish at 89.0 grams, down 5.1%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, hitting a high of 3.8 grams on Sunday, but declining to 3.1 grams by the end of the week, for a loss of 18.1%

The HUI gold stock index closed down 2.5%, but all other major indexes were in the black. The Nikkei led the field, gaining 3.1%, followed by the S&P 500 which added 1.8% and the Dow Industrials which rose 1.7%.

Commodities, while mixed, had the largest gains of any asset group. Crude oil continued its strong recovery, gaining 6.6%, and palladium also soared, adding 3.8%, and closing solidly above the 31.1 gram gold parity level. On the other side of the ledger, cotton fell 1.0% and silver dropped 0.9%.

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Weekly Update 4 Jan 2019

Another short trading week over New Years has given mixed results for most asset classes. The largest gains were once again in Ethereum, which rose 12.2%. Crude oil reversed course to gain 5.7%. The largest losses were in Bitcoin, down 1.8%, and the Chinese Yuan, off 1.5%.

The Chinese Yuan was the weakest of all national currencies this week, falling 1.5%. Its neighbor, the Japanese Yen was the strongest, rising 2.0%. The Canadian Dollar also did well, gaining 1.8%. The US Dollar was little changed, declining 0.1%. Short term bonds were unchanged and long term bonds, as measured by TLT, gained 0.8%.

Bitcoin started the week strongly, then dipped to a low of 91.0 grams on Dec 31st, but recovered to finish the week at 93.7 grams, off 1.8%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, but fell less and gained more to end the week up 12.2%, the best performance of any asset class.

The only declining equity index was the Nikkei 225, which showed a small loss of 0.3%. Gold stocks were the best performers, adding 2.6%. The Euro STOXX barely outperformed their US counterparts, rising 1.9% compared to the 1.8% gain managed by the S&P 500.

Commodities were mostly higher. The extremes were copper, which fell 1.4%, and crude oil, which rose 5.7%. Silver was also a winner, gaining 2.6%. Platinum fell to a new all-time low of 19.0 grams on Wednesday, but recovered to finish the week up 1.5% at 19.4 grams.

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Weekly Update 28 Dec 2018 Happy New Year!

The short trading week over Christmas brought a mix of results, taking bonds and national currencies lower, and producing a range of results for cryptocurrencies, stocks and commodities. The largest gains were in Ethereum, which rose 23.7%, and silver, which gained 2.4%. Cotton took the biggest losses, closing down 3.0% followed by the Canadian Dollar and crude oil which each fell 2.2%.

Among the national currencies, the Japanese Yen dropped least, giving up 1.0%. The Canadian Dollar fell the most, off 2.2%. US Dollar cash dropped 1.6%, underperforming USD bonds as TLT and SHY declined 1.4% each.

Cryptocurrencies were mixed but generally positive, as exemplified by Ethereum's 23.7% rise and Bitcoin's 0.9% decline. Similar results were seen in other cryptos, for instance, PIVX gained 19.2% while DASH dropped 3.7%.

The Japanese Nikkei was the weakest stock index, falling 1.7%. The S&P 500 rose the most, adding 1.2%. The Dow Jones Industrials gained 1.1%. Gold stocks were off 0.6%.

Commodities were mixed, with falling assets including cotton (off 3.0%), crude oil (down 2.2%) and platinum (down 1.9% for a new all-time low of 19.2 grams). On the upside, silver surged 2.4% while palladium (up 0.6%) continues to hover just below parity with gold.

Thanks for being part of the Priced in Gold family; we wish you the very best in 2019!

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Weekly Update 21 Dec 2018 Merry Christmas!

It was a rough pre-Christmas week for most asset classes except the cryptocurrencies, which bounced back strongly; Ethereum rose 27.5%, while Bitcoin gained 18.0%. Commodities were hardest hit, as crude oil plunged 12.2% and cotton sank 9.8%. Stocks weren't spared, either; the S&P 500 closed down 8.7%.

The only rising national currency was the Japanese Yen, up 0.2%. The Canadian Dollar sank the most, losing 3.1%. The USD fell 1.8%, but its bonds did better, as the short term SHY fell 1.6% and the longer term TLT gained 0.3%.

Cryptos had a great week, finally catching a bid and actually starting to soar. Ethereum was especially strong, gaining 27.5%, but Bitcoin was no slouch, rising 18.0%. These gains seem to be holding and consolidating through the weekend; it will be interesting to see what happens as the year finishes out.

The only equities to rise were the HUI gold stocks, up 0.6%. Losses ranged from 8.7% for the S&P 500 to 5.2% for the Euro STOXX.

Commodities were all in the red, with crude oil taking the worst hit, plunging 12.2%. Cotton was also down strongly, off 9.8%. Copper lost 5.0%, and the precious metals (silver, platinum and palladium) were each down 1.1%.

I wish you the very happiest of holiday seasons, and look forward to tracking the markets with you in 2019! Merry Christmas!

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Weekly Update 14 Dec 2018

Results were mixed for stocks, commodities and currencies, while bonds rose and the cryptos fell once again. Palladium showed the largest gains, rising 2.7% and closing at 31.0 grams – just shy of parity with gold. Ethereum had the largest loss, dropping 9.0%.

National currencies were mixed, with the USD moving higher by 0.6% while the Chinese Yuan dropped 0.5%. The other currencies were little changed for the week. US bonds, both short term and long term, were higher, rising 0.7% each.

Cryptocurrencies dropped again, with Ethereum falling 9.0% and Bitcoin dropping 4.6%. Bitcoin is now just below the 130% exponential growth line. It will be interesting to see if that line represents support, but I suspect that there will be intense selling pressure to raise USD cash for tax payments and to cover year-end expenses which will continue through mid-Jan 2019, so I'm not counting on that.

Stocks were mostly lower, with the European STOXX50 (up 0.9%) being the exception. The Japanese Nikkei fell the most, down 1.2%, while the S&P 500 was off 0.6%.

Commodities saw the largest price swings (outside of the cryptos). Palladium gained 2.7% and silver added 1.3%. The largest decline was in coffee, which fell 1.8%. Platinum made a new all-time low of 19.6 grams early in the week, then recovered to close unchanged. Palladium popped up above parity with gold and hit a high of 31.6 grams, but settled down to close at 31.0 grams, just below parity.

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Weekly Update 7 Dec 2018

Very few asset classes made gains this week. The short list was headed by gold stocks, as the HUI rose 4.0%, and crude oil, which added 1.2%. The largest losses were once again in cryptocurrencies, as Ethereum fell 19.3% and Bitcoin dropped 16.6%.

National currencies were all lower, led by the US and Canadian Dollars, which declined 2.1% apiece. The Chinese Yuan fell the least, dropping 0.4%. US bonds did better than USD cash, as the short term SHY fell 1.8% and the long term TLT gained 0.8%.

The declines in crypto just keep coming! Bitcoin declined 16.6%, taking it right to the exponential uptrend line in place since 2015. Bad as that was, Bitcoin still fared better than most of the altcoins, including Ethereum which dropped 19.3%. Both are substantially lower than they were 12 months ago (when they were near their all-time highs) but they are both substantially higher than they were 24 months ago – in the case of Ethereum, about 10 times higher (2.3 grams vs 0.23 grams). It's certainly too early to call a bottom, but with good fundamentals remaining in place for the top-tier coins, many are starting to look attractive at these prices.

As mentioned above, gold stocks were the strongest of all assets this week, rising 4.0%. All the major indexes were lower, however, led by the S&P 500, which dropped 6.5%, the largest decline outside of the cryptos. The Dow industrials did little better, falling 6.4%. The Japanese Nikkei did the "least worst", declining 4.3%.

Commodities were also lower, with the sole exception of crude oil, which posted a 1.2% gain. Coffee fell the most, dropping 5.2%, followed by platinum, which dropped 4.0% to a new all-time low of 19.7 grams. Palladium rose to a new multi-year high, trading above parity with gold on Tuesday and Wednesday, then slid to end the week at 30.2 grams, down 1.8%. Silver was down slightly, off 0.4%.

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Weekly Update 30 Nov 2018

This was a good week for bonds and the major stock indexes, but cryptocurrencies fell again and commodities were mixed. Palladium led the way higher, gaining 6.1%, while Ethereum took the worst beating, dropping 7.8%. The DJIA was the second best performer, rising 5.7%.

The only falling national currency was the Japanese Yen, which declined 0.2%. The US Dollar performed best, rising 0.5%. Its bonds did even better, as the 2-3 Year SHY rose 0.6% and 20+ Year TLT gained 0.7%.

Bitcoin continues to outperform Ethereum (and most of the altcoins), but both were lower, as BTC closed down 7.1% and ETH lost 7.8%. These declines, while large, were much smaller than we saw in the previous two weeks. In spite of these drops, Bitcoin is still about 20% above its exponential uptrend line begun back in 2015, rising at a compound rate exceeding 130% per year.

Only the gold stocks were lower this week, as the HUI fell 1.4%. US stocks led the field, with the Dow Jones Industrials rising 5.7% and S&P 500 gaining 5.4%. The Euro STOXX50 was the weakest major index, and it was up 2.1%.

Commodities were mixed, as platinum fell 3.5% and Coffee dropped 2.6%, while palladium rose 6.1% and cotton gained 2.7%. Copper and silver were little changed, up 0.6% and 0.4% respectively.

Palladium is now within spitting distance of parity with gold, something that has not happened since the fall of 2002, and about 30% above it's average price since 1995. Platinum, on the other hand, is just 1% above its all-time low, and less than half of its average price for the same period.

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Weekly Update 23 Nov 2018

This was a rough week for nearly every asset class, with only cotton (up 1.3%) and long term bonds (up 0.3%) showing any gains. The brunt of the selling was once again cryptocurrencies, as ETH plunged 29.7% and BTC fell 22.1%. Stocks and commodities weren't spared: crude oil dropped 10.8% and the DJIA fell 4.5%.

The Japanese Yen was unchanged, but all other national currencies were lower, led by the Chinese Yuan which fell 1.0%. The US Dollar gave up only 0.1%, as did its short term bonds, and long term bonds gained 0.3%, showing their "safe haven" status.

Cryptocurrencies were slaughtered again this week, as Ethereum dropped a stunning 29.7%, and Bitcoin fell 22.1% to close at 110.5 grams. Both are now making new lows for the year, but so far Bitcoin remains above its exponential uptrend that started in 2015 and doubles every 18 months. A drop to about 80 grams will bring it to a retest of that support line.

Stocks were all lower this week, with large cap US indexes leading the way. The Dow Jones Industrials fell 4.5% and the S&P 500 dropped 3.9%. Least affected were the gold stocks, off 0.6%, and the Japanese Nikkei index, which gave back 0.7%.

Commodities were mostly lower, but cotton was the shining exception, gaining 1.3%. After the cryptos, crude oil was the worst performing asset of the week, dropping 10.8%. Palladium fell 3.2%, and copper gave up 1.7%. Silver did relatively well, falling just 0.3%.

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Weekly Update 16 Nov 2018

Cryptocurrency markets were hit hard this week, as Ethereum (down 17.4%) and Bitcoin (off 13.5%) closed at new lows for the year (More on this below.) Crude oil was also hit hard, falling 7.0%. Most other asset classes were also lower, but there were exceptions, including palladium, which rose 4.0%, and copper, which gained 3.4%.

The Chinese Yuan was the only rising national currency, adding 0.5% this week. The US Dollar dropped the most, giving up 0.9%. US bonds did better than cash, as the 1-3 year treasuries fell 0.6%, and the 20+ year treasuries gained 0.3%.

Bitcoin and Ethereum followed similar trajectories, holding up well until Wednesday, then falling hard Thursday and finishing the week down 17.4% and 13.5% respectively. Several factors have been called out for this drop, including the hard fork of BCH that occurred on Thursday which may indirectly affect Bitcoin mining difficulty, and the SEC action to reclassify two utility tokens (Paragon and Airfox, both based on Ethereum) as securities – which will require refunding millions of dollars raised in their ICOs as well as payment of large fines. The SEC action has put much of the crypto space into a scramble to raise cash, as further enforcement actions are expected. Bitcoin and Ethereum are not directly affected by the SEC action, but it has caused selling of BTC, and ETH in particular, as they are the main liquid assets held by many blockchain startups – especially those whose tokens are built on the Ethereum blockchain.

Gold stocks were higher by 2.7%, but all the major stock indexes were lower, led by the Dow Jones Industrials, which fell 3.1%. The Euro STOXX 50 dropped the least, closing down 1.6%.

Commodities were mixed, with crude oil plunging 7.0% and cotton falling 3.4%, while palladium surged 4.0% and copper gained 3.4%. Silver and platinum were lower, down 1.3% and 2.7% respectively. Palladium is now at its highest level in 15 years, approaching parity with gold.

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Weekly Update 9 Nov 2018

Most asset classes were higher this week. The exceptions were gold stocks and some of the commodities. Ethereum, up 6.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrials, up 4.6%, topped the rising list. The biggest losses were in coffee, off 3.5%, and crude oil, down 3.0%.

The USD (up 1.7%) rose more than any other national currency, while the Chinese Yuan (up 0.5%) gained the least. Short term bonds rose 1.7%, in line with USD cash, but long term bonds outperformed both, gaining 2.9%.

Bitcoin had a fairly calm week, ebbing and flowing, ending up 1.7%. Ethereum rose more consistently and further, adding 6.5%, for the best performance of any asset class this week.

Gold stocks fell 2.4%, but the other stock indexes were all higher. The DJIA was up 4.6% and the S&P 500 added 3.9%. The Japanese Nikkei rose least, gaining 1.7%.

Commodities were mixed, with coffee down 3.5% while palladium rose 2.4%. Crude oil and copper were also big losers, off 3.0% and 2.5% respectively. Silver was down 1.6% while platinum managed a 0.8% gain.

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