Weekly Update 4 Aug 2017

I want to apologize for the rash of junk emails sent out last week, and thank you for your kindness and patience. Due to a change of server configuration, another site began sharing my server's IP address, and all of his posts were echoed out as emails by my list server. My site also became unavailable as Cloudflare, my DDOS prevention service, could not access the underlying web server properly. This is all sorted out now, and hopefully will stay that way for many years to come!

Server issues aside, this was a good week for most asset classes, with only gold stocks moving significantly lower (the HUI was off 1.8%). The strongest gains were in the cryptocurrencies, as Ethereum rose 14.5% and Bitcoin gained 3.4%, following a week of volatility caused by concern over the Bitcoin hard fork that occurred on August 1st. Bonds, major stock indexes, and commodities were all higher.

The Euro was the best performing national currency this week, rising 1.5%. The Chinese Yuan and Canadian Dollar were the only falling currencies, and they only dropped 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. Bonds continued to favor the longer maturities, as the 20+ year TLT rose 1.4%, while the 1-3 year SHY gained 0.5% and USD cash (notes of zero maturity) added 0.6%.

Bitcoin rose early in the week, hitting 70.5 grams on July 31st, just prior to the hard fork, but fell about 5% following the fork, closing at 66.7 grams on August 2nd. Since then it has rallied, reaching 71.3 grams on Friday the 4th, and has continued to rise strongly since, trading at a new all-time high of 85.1 grams on August 8th. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, ending the week at 5.5 grams, up 14.5%.

Gold stocks fell 1.8% this week, but all the major market indexes were higher. The Euro STOXX was the strongest index, adding 2.0%. The DJIA was up 1.8% while the S&P 500 rose 0.8%.

Commodities were all higher, as platinum surged 4.8%, while palladium gained 1.6% and silver rose 1.4%. Cotton and coffee also made strong gains, rising 3.2% and 2.3% respectively.

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Weekly Update 21 Jul 2017

Digital tokens rebounded this week, as Bitcoin rose 18.9%. Stocks and currencies were mostly lower, while bonds and commodities were mixed. Outside of digital tokens, the biggest gains were in silver, which rose 4.0%; the largest losses were in crude oil, which fell 3.1%, reversing much of the prior week's gains.

The Euro was the only national currency in the black this week, rising 0.4%. The Chinese Yuan was the weakest currency, falling 1.8%. Bonds again favored the longer maturities, as the 20+ year TLT rose 0.4%, while the 1-3 year SHY dropped 1.4% and USD cash (notes of zero maturity) fell 1.5%.

Bitcoin started the week by dropping sharply over the weekend, but on Monday stabilized and began rising. By Thursday it reached a high of 72.3 grams before settling to close at 67.1 grams on Friday, up 18.9%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, ending the week up 9.0%.

Gold stocks rose 1.7% this week, but all the major market indexes were lower. The Nikkei was the strongest major index, falling just 0.3%. The Euro STOXX and the DJIA fell the most, down 1.9% and 1.7% respectively.

Commodities were mixed, as crude oil fell 3.1%, while silver gained 3.1%. Palladium was 2.4% lower, while platinum was 0.6% higher.

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Weekly Update 14 Jul 2017

This week's big news was the continued drop in digital tokens, as both Bitcoin and Ethereum retreat after their recent huge runups. Bonds were also lower, stocks were generally higher, while currencies and commodities were mixed. The biggest gains were in crude oil, which rose 4.0%; the largest losses were in the Ethereum token, which fell 19.5%.

The Canadian Dollar and Chinese Yuan were the strongest currencies, rising 0.7% each. The US Dollar was the weakest currency, falling 1.2%. Bonds favored the longer maturities, as the 20+ year TLT fell 0.7%, while the 1-3 year SHY dropped 1.1% and USD cash (notes of zero maturity) fell 1.2%.

Bitcoin traded near 60 grams for most of the week, then dropped sharply on Friday, closing at 56.4 grams, down 12.5%. Ethereum started the week sharply lower, then was highly volatile, trading between 5 and 6 grams, and ending the week at 5.0 grams, down 19.5%.

The Euro STOXX were the strongest major stock index, rising 1.1%. The HUI gold stocks rose even more, adding 2.7%. The other stock indexes were little changed, with the DJIA down 0.2% and the S&P 500 up 0.2%.

Commodities were mixed, with crude oil rising 4.0%, while cotton fell 4.1%. In the metals, silver and platinum were lower (off 2.0% and 0.4% respectively) while palladium and copper were higher (rising 1.9% and 0.5% respectively).

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Weekly Update 7 July 2017

This was a holiday week in North America, so I will summarize both the last week of June and the first week of July by saying that national currencies and major stock indexes were rising, digital tokens were falling, and bonds and commodities were mixed. The biggest gains were in coffee, which rose 5.9% during the last week of June, and a further 4.8% this week. Crude oil was a close second, rising 8.2% for W/E 30 June, but pulling back 1.8% this week. The largest losses were in the Ethereum token, which fell 14.6% in the prior week, and another 14.1% this week, to settle at 6.25 grams. Although this is a very significant drop, it needs to be seen in the context of a gain of over 2000% for the last year.

The Japanese Yen was the weakest national currency, rising just 0.3% for the last week in June, and 0.6% this week. The Canadian Dollar, up 3.3% last week and another 3.1% this week, was the strongest currency. Bonds favored the shorter maturities, as the 20+ year TLT fell 1.0% during the last week in June, and added just 0.4% this week, while the 1-3 year SHY rose 1.0% and 2.2% in the same periods. But USD cash gained even more, rising 1.1% last week and 2.2% this week.

Bitcoin spent the last two weeks trading very close to 2 ounces of gold. It fell to 61.6 grams on July 1st, then rallied to 67.0 grams July 5th, and finally settled at 64.5 grams, up 3.1% for the week. Ethereum started the last week in June by rallying to 8.2 grams on June 28th, but slid lower each day thereafter, closing at 6.2 grams this week, a loss of 26.7% for the two week period. Keep in mind that this is less than the 33.4% gain seen in the single week ending Jun 6th, and a fairly small pullback in the context of the last year's gains.

The major markets indexes all moved higher over the last two weeks, but gold stocks tumbled, with the HUI falling 4.1% for the last week in June, and a further 0.9% this week. The Dow Jones Industrials had the largest gains, while the Nikkei 225 showed the least luster, dropping 0.2% in the last week of June and recovering 0.5% this week.

Commodities were mixed, with coffee making strong gains each week, while silver fell a bit each week, closing at 405 mg. Crude oil rose 8.2% during the last week of June, but pulled back 1.8% this week. Platinum also made small gains each week (up 0.5% and 1.0%), while palladium fell 4.2% last week, but recovered 1.3% this week.

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Weekly Update 23 June 2017

National currencies and major stock indexes were little changed, while commodities and digital tokens (cryptocurrencies) were mixed. The biggest gains and losses were both in digital tokens, as Bitcoin rose 8.3% to finish the week at 67.8 grams while Ethereum fell 7.2% to close at 8.5 grams. Most equities were unchanged, but the European STOXX dropped slightly, and gold stocks bounced higher, rising 4.4%, erasing the prior week's loss and showing the second largest gain after Bitcoin.

The Chinese Yuan was this week's weakest national currency, falling 0.4%, while most others were unchanged. Bonds again favored the longer maturities, with the 20+ year TLT gaining 1.1% while the 1-3 year SHY and USD cash were unchanged.

Bitcoin rose early in the week, hitting a high of 69.6 grams on Tuesday 20-June, but then pulled back, closing the week at 67.8 grams, up 8.3%. Ethereum, the token with the second largest market capitalization, dropped to 8.2 grams on Wednesday 21-June, but recovered to close the week at 8.5 grams, a loss of 7.2%.

Gold stocks bounced higher this week, recouping all of last week's loss, adding 4.4% to close at 4.8 grams. Among the major markets indexes, US stocks were little changed, while the Euro STOXX lost 0.3% and the Nikkei 225 gained 0.7%.

Commodities were mixed, with crude oil and coffee declining 3.9% and 2.9% respectively, while copper rose 2.4% and palladium gained 1.9%. Silver was off 0.3%, while platinum added 0.4% to close at 23.0 grams, just 1% above its all-time low.

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Weekly Update 16 June 2017

National currencies and bonds were higher, commodities were lower, and stocks and digital tokens (cryptocurrencies) were mixed. The biggest gains and losses were both in digital tokens, as Bitcoin fell 9.8% to finish the week at 62.6 grams (about 2 troy ounces) while Ethereum rose 33.4% to close at 9.2 grams. In equities, the US markets rose, while Europe and Asia fell. Gold stocks also resumed their downward trend, falling 4.3%, the second largest drop after Bitcoin.

This week's table is a little different from past weeks. I have broken out Bitcoin (and added Ethereum) to create a new "Digital Tokens" section. Although there is a strong case to be made for these tokens as free market currencies, they are much more than just a new form of money. Unlike stocks, bonds, and currencies, they have no centralized issuing authority, and require no intermediaries (such as banks, brokerages and clearing houses). Like physical commodities, tokens eliminate counter-party risk; but being digital, they have no mass, require no physical vaulting, and so are instantly accessed from anywhere the internet reaches: around the world, and even into space. While digital tokens can represent simple monetary value, they can also represent rights to storage space, computation power, share ownership, title to property, proof of identity, contracts between parties, and much more. As this asset class matures I look forward to adding additional tokens to this list.

The Canadian Dollar was this week's strongest national currency, rising 2.8%. The Japanese Yen rose the least, gaining 0.2%. Bonds favored the longer maturities, with the 20+ year TLT gaining 2.5% while the 1-3 year SHY and USD cash each added 0.9%.

Bitcoin started the week by rising to set a new all-time high of 74.1 grams on Sunday 11-June, but had pulled back sharply to 60.8 grams by Wednesday 14-June. Since then, Bitcoin has been working its way higher, closing the week at 62.6 grams, and continuing to climb though the weekend, trading on Monday at 65.8 grams. Ethereum, the token with the second largest market capitalization, hit an all-time high of 9.9 grams on 12-June, but closed the week at 9.2 grams, for a gain of 33.4%.

Gold stocks fell this week, giving up all of last week's gains, dropping 4.3% to close at 4.6 grams. Among the major markets indexes, US stocks were higher, with the Dow Jones Industrials gaining 1.4%, while the Euro STOXX lost 1.4% and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.1%.

Commodities were all lower this week, led by cotton, which fell 4.2%. Silver was the next weakest commodity, falling 2.5%. Platinum was the least weak, dropping 0.8% to close at 22.9 grams, less than 1% above its all-time low.

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Weekly Update 9 June 2017

Most currencies, equities and commodities were higher this week, with crude oil, down 3.2%, being the biggest exception. The largest gains were once again in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which rose 13.0% to close at 69.4 grams. The largest losses were in crude oil, but cotton, the Chinese Yuan, European stocks, and long term bonds were also lower. Gold stocks rebounded, gaining 3.2% and reversing the trend of recent weeks.

The Japanese Yen was this week's strongest currency, rising 1.5%. The Chinese Yuan was the only declining currency, falling 0.8%.

Bitcoin was once again the strongest of all currencies tracked in this table, and the strongest asset class overall, rising 13.0%. Bitcoin set a new all-time high of 70.1 grams on 6-June, but closed the week at 69.4 grams. Bitcoin continued to climb through the weekend, hitting 74.1 grams on Sunday 11-June, but has pulled back sharply since then, and is currently trading around 62 grams. Not shown in the table, Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency, seems to be the biggest beneficiary of Bitcoin's recent weakness, as it continued to rise while Bitcoin pulled back. ETH closed the week at 6.21 grams, up 13.8%, but is currently trading at around 9 grams. It will be interesting to see how things finish up for the week of 16-June.

Bonds were mixed, favoring short maturities this week, with the long term TLT off 0.3%, while the short term SHY rose 0.5% and USD cash gained 0.7%.

Gold stocks were the star equities this week, as the HUI rose 3.2% to close at 4.8 grams. The Dow Jones Industrials outperformed other major indexes, gaining 1.0%. The only market index to fall was the Euro STOXX FEZ, which lost 0.7%.

The weakest asset class this week was crude oil, which dropped 3.2%. Cotton was also lower, by 0.5%, but all others were higher. The biggest commodity gains were once again in palladium, which rose 7.8%. Copper also had a good week, rising 3.6%. Silver and platinum were up 1.6% and 1.4% respectively.

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Weekly Update 2 Jun 2017

Government-issued currencies and commodities were mostly lower this week, while bonds were mixed, and stocks were mostly higher. The biggest gains were once again in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which rose 11.1% to close at 61.4 grams. The largest losses were in crude oil and coffee, which fell 5.0% apiece. Gold stocks also fell, dropping 2.4%, continuing the trend of the last few weeks.

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen were the weakest of the currencies, declining 0.8% and 0.6% respectively. The strongest national currency (and the only government-issued currency to show a gain for the week) was the Chinese Yuan, which rose 0.5%.

Bitcoin was the strongest of all currencies tracked in this table, and the strongest asset class overall, rising 11.1%. Bitcoin closed the week at 61.4 grams, just 0.1 grams short of its all-time high, and has continued to climb since, setting new all-time highs each day. Not shown in the table, Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency, rose far more than Bitcoin, closing the week at 5.5 grams, up a whopping 21.9% from the prior week's close of 4.5 grams.

Bonds were mixed, favoring the longer maturities this week, with the long term TLT up 0.9%, while the short term SHY and USD cash were down 0.8% apiece.

Japanese stocks were strong, rising 1.9%. Gold stocks continue to retreat, with the HUI falling 2.4% to close at 4.7 grams. US stock indexes were little changed, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrials losing 0.2%.

The weakest commodities were crude oil and coffee, which dropped 5.0% each. The biggest commodity gains were in palladium, which rose 6.5%. Platinum fell 3.8% to close the week at 22.7 grams, just 0.3% above its all-time low. Silver and copper were lower this week, giving up 0.6% and 0.3% respectively.

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Weekly Update 26 May 2017

Government-issued currencies and bonds were lower this week, while stocks and commodities were mixed. The biggest news and the biggest gains were once again in Bitcoin, which rose 13.0% to close at 55.3 grams (more on this below). The largest drop was in cotton, which fell 4.0%. Gold stocks continued to fall, dropping 2.2% on the heels of last week's 1.7% loss.

The Japanese Yen and the US Dollar were the weakest of the currencies, declining 1.0% each. The strongest national currency was the Chinese Yuan, which fell just 0.1%.

Bitcoin was the strongest of all currencies, and the strongest asset class overall, rising 13.0%. Bitcoin made a new all-time high every day this week until Wednesday, when it closed at 61.5 grams. On Thursday, trading continued higher, peaking at 69.0 grams before falling sharply to close the day at 58.3 grams. On Friday, the slide continued, ending the week at 55.3 grams, still up 13.0% for the week, and up 74.5% in the last month.

This stunning rise is just part of the story, though. Bitcoin is not the only cryptocurrency out there, though it is the largest by market cap. Many others, including Ethereum, with the second-largest market cap, also set new all-time highs this week. Lots of money is moving into this space… and while prices will undoubtedly continue to be highly volatile, many feel that these free market currencies are going to move much higher as they become more broadly adopted and enter the mainstream of finance.

Bonds were lower, favoring the shorter maturities, with the long term TLT down 1.2%, the short term SHY down 1.1% and USD cash down 1.0%.

After a strong showing 2 weeks ago, gold stocks have been pulling back. This week the HUI fell 2.2% to close at 4.8 grams. The Euro STOXX fell 1.5%, but US stock indexes were higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrials 0.3%.

The weakest commodities were cotton and crude oil, which dropped 4.0% and 2.1% respectively. The biggest commodity gains were in silver, which rose 1.3%, and platinum, which rose 0.9%.

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Weekly Update 12 May 2017

Stocks, commodities and currencies were mixed, while bonds were lower this week. The biggest gains were once again in Bitcoin, which rose 10.6% to close at 42.4 grams. The largest drop was in the Euro STOXX, which fell 1.9%, giving back much of the prior week's gains. Crude oil also reversed course, rising 3.2%, and recouping most of the prior week's losses.

The Japanese Yen continues to be the weakest of the currencies, declining 1.3%. The strongest national currency was the Chinese Yuan, which rose just 0.1%. Bitcoin was the strongest of all currencies, and the strongest asset class overall, rising 10.6%. Bitcoin made a new all-time high every day this week until Thursday, when it peaked at 46.0 grams before falling sharply to close at 42.4 grams on Friday.

Bonds were lower, but favored the longer maturities, with the long term TLT and short term SHY down 0.2% while USD cash fell 0.3%.

The gold stocks rose more than any other equities, gaining 5.7%. The Japanese Nikkei index rose 2.8%, the strongest showing of any major index, while the Euro STOXX fell 1.9%. The Dow Jones Industrials lost 0.8%.

The weakest commodities were coffee and palladium, which dropped 0.8% and 0.4% respectively. The biggest commodity gains were in crude oil, which rose 3.2%, and platinum, which rose 1.2%. Silver ended the week down 0.1%.

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