Weekly Update 6 Jul 2018

This was a solid week for cryptocurrencies; commodities were mostly lower, and all other asset classes were mixed. Ethereum topped the charts, rising 8.3%. Copper suffered the largest losses, falling 5.0%. Platinum fell to a new all-time low before recovering to close the week down 1.9%.

Currencies were generally weak, although the Canadian Dollar was unchanged and the Euro rose 0.3%. Weakest was the Chinese Yuan, which gave up 0.7%. Bonds were mixed, with short-term SHY falling 0.5% and the long-term TLT rising 0.5%. USD cash was off 0.4%.

Bitcoin worked its way higher over the course of the week, finishing up 6.9% at 165.4 grams. Ethereum hit a high of 11.85 grams on Monday, dropped sharply on Tuesday, and recovered for the rest of the week, ending up 8.3% at 11.75 grams.

Equities were mostly higher, but the Japanese Nikkei fell 2.4%. The Euro STOXX50 gained 2.2%. Gold stocks rose 2.3%.

The only rising commodity was cotton, up 0.2%. Copper was hit hard, falling 5.0%. Platinum hit a new all-time low of 20.66 grams on Tuesday, but recovered to end the week at 20.76 grams, off 1.9%.

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Weekly Update 29 Jun 2018

This was a generally positive week for currencies and bonds, a quiet week for stocks, and a mixed week for cryptocurrencies and commodities. The largest gains were in crude oil, which rose a stunning 9.7%. The largest losses were in Ethereum, which fell 5.0%.

The Canadian Dollar was the strongest national currency, gaining 2.9%, while the Euro was in second place, up 1.8%. The only falling currency was the Chinese Yuan, off 0.3%. Bonds rose strongly, and in proportion to their maturity dates. The 20+ year TLT gained 2.5%, while the 2-3 year SHY added 1.6%. Zero maturity USD cash was up 1.5%.

Bitcoin rose slowly until Thursday, when it fell hard, recovering on Friday to a new high for the week, up 3.7%. It has continued to rise over the weekend as well, and was about 6% higher on Monday than the close on Friday. Ethereum worked its way lower over the course of the week, and recovered a bit on Friday, but not enough to avoid posting a 5.0% loss. Since the close, however, it has rallied strongly, gaining about 9%, more than making up for the week's losses.

Not much action in the Equity markets, as US and European indexes close up 0.2%, while the Japanese Nikkei closes down 0.3%. Gold stocks were little changed, up 0.1%.

Crude oil was the strongest asset overall, rising 9.7%, apparently due to OPEC production cuts – in spite of the largest Saudi production boost in five years. Metals were mostly lower, with silver and copper down 1.2% each. Palladium was the exception, gaining 1.2%. Platinum finished the week at 21.17 grams, down 0.4%, just 0.02% above its all time low.

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Weekly Update 15 June 2018

This was a strange week, generally positive until Friday, when trade war announcements caused most assets except the USD and long term bonds to drop sharply. Bitcoin and Ethereum had fallen hard very early in the week, and were recovering slowly before giving up their gains on Friday, ending off 14.5% and 17.5% respectively. Long term bonds were the largest gainers, rising 1.7%.

The USD was the strongest currency, gaining 1.0%, while the Canadian Dollar was once again the weakest, giving up 0.7%. Long term bonds rose 1.7%, while short term bonds gained 1.0%.

Bitcoin and Ethereum followed similar patterns this week, falling hard on Sunday the 17th, recovering slowly until Friday, when they (along with many other asset classes) were slammed, ending the week down 14.5% and 17.5% respectively.

European stocks were the only equities to close lower, falling 0.6%. The S&P 500 saw the largest gains, rising 1.0%, followed by the Japanese Nikkei Index, which gained 0.7%. Gold stocks rallied 0.5%.

Copper and cotton here hard hit, dropping 3.5% apiece. Silver is listed as rising 4.1%, but this is a statistical anomaly. The London silver fix used in my database was issued just before the trade war stories hit the news wires on Friday, causing all the precious metals (and many other asset prices) to fall sharply. Using the New York closing prices for gold and silver gives a silver price of 0.402 grams/oz, for a gain of 0.42% for the week, a more fair assessment. That would make platinum's 0.7% gain the largest among the commodities.

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Weekly Update 8 Jun 2018

This was a good week for stocks and cryptos, a bad week for bonds, and a mixed week for currencies and commodities. The biggest changes were in commodities, as copper rose 6.2% and coffee dropped 4.7%. Ethereum closed the week up 3.3%, but the crypto markets fell hard over the weekend, with Ethereum down 12% on Sunday.

The Euro was the strongest currency, gaining 0.6%, while the Canadian Dollar was the weakest, giving up 0.4%. Long term bonds fell 0.9%, while short term bonds and USD cash each fell 0.3%.

Bitcoin and Ethereum were both fairly stable throughout the week, closing up 0.8% and 3.3% respectively. Over the weekend, however, both saw large drops on low volumes, closing down 10 to 12% on Sunday. Several explanations have been floated, including the hack of Coinrail, a small Korean exchange, and fresh concerns about CFTC investigations into crypto price manipulations.

Gold stocks were the only equities to close lower, falling 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrials led the field, rising 2.5%, followed closely by the Jappanese Nikkei Index, which gained 2.3%.

The real fireworks were once again in commodities. Copper rose 6.2% while coffee dropped 4.7%. Precious metals were mixed, with palladium up 2.1%, silver up 1.5%, and platinum off 0.5%. Crude oil fell slightly, giving up 0.4%.

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Weekly Update 1 Jun 2018

It was generally an up week for currencies and bonds, but mixed for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and commodities. The largest swings were in commodities, with cotton climbing 5.3% and crude oil falling 2.4%.

The weakest currency was the Chinese Yuan, off 0.1%. The Canadian Dollar was strongest, rising 0.9%, followed by the Euro, which was up 0.8%. Short term bonds rose 0.6% while long term bonds gained 1.3%. Zero-maturity USD cash added 0.7%.

Bitcoin sagged early in the week, hitting a low of 170.3 grams on Monday, but recovered to close the week at 181.2 grams, up 1.5%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, hitting a low of 12.3 grams on Monday, but it's recovery wasn't as strong, leaving it 0.5% below the prior week's close.

US stocks showed strength this week, as the S&P 500 gained 1.2%. The Japanese Nikkei index fell 0.8%, and the European STOXX 50 index dropped 0.5%. Gold stocks were little changed, up 0.1%.

Cotton continued its multi-week rise, gaining another 5.3%. Coffee also rose strongly, adding 2.7%. Crude oil saw the week's largest decline, falling 2.4%. Metals were mixed, with silver down 0.8% and palladium up 2.0%. Platinum was little changed, up 0.1%.

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Weekly Update 25 May 2018

Cryptocurrencies, national currencies, and equities were mostly lower this week, while bonds and commodities were mixed. The largest drops were in Ethereum and Bitcoin, which closed down 16.5% and 10.4% respectively. The largest gains were in cotton and platinum, which rose 1.9% and 1.5%.

The Euro fell more than any other national currency, giving up 2.1%, followed by the Canadian Dollar, which closed off 2.0%. The best performing currency was the Yen, which was little changed, up 0.1%. Bonds were mixed, with the long term TLT up 0.9%, while the short term SHY fell 0.9%. USD cash was down 1.2%.

After a brief pause the prior week, cryptocurrencies resumed their downward move. Ethereum rose early in the week, then dropped sharply, closing at 14 grams, off 16.5%. Bitcoin followed a similar path, ending the week at 178.5 grams, off 10.4%. Contributing to the declines were reports of a hack on Tuesday on the currency Verge. This attack, while technically fascinating, had no direct implications for Bitcoin, Ethereum, or most other cryptocurrencies; but that didn't stop it from adding to the general level of Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt.

All the major stock indexes closed lower; only the gold stocks managed a small gain, rising 0.2%. The European STOXX was hit hardest, dropping 3.5%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.9%.

Outside of the cryptos, commodities saw the biggest swings. Crude oil closed down 5.9%, the largest loss. Cotton had the largest gain, rising 1.9%. Platinum and palladium reversed their usual courses, with Pt rising 1.5% while Pd fell 1.5%. Silver gained 0.5%.

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Weekly Update 18 May 2018

This was a very "risk on" week, as buyers pushed the prices of every asset class, except platinum, higher. The largest gains were in cotton, up 5.1%, and Ethereum, up 5.0%. Platinum lost 1.9%, and closed at 21.3 grams/oz, just 0.3% above its all-time lows.

The US Dollar was the strongest of the national currencies, gaining 2.8%. The Euro was weakest, rising 1.3%. Bonds also rose, as the short term SHY added 2.8%, and the long term TLT closed 1.1% higher.

Cryptocurrencies peaked early in the week, then worked their way lower as the week came to a close. Ethereum managed to hang on to more of its gains, finishing up 5.0%, while Bitcoin ended the week little changed, up just 0.5%.

Stocks also had a great week, led by the DJIA and Nikkei indexes which rose 2.3% apiece. Gold stocks rose the least, adding just 0.3%.

Commodities saw the most volatility, with cotton rising 5.1% and crude oil gaining 3.6%, while platinum had the only falling price, off 1.9%. Silver and palladium were quiet this week, closing up 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.

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Weekly Update 11 May 2018

National currencies, cryptocurrencies, and bonds were all lower this week, while equities and commodities were mixed. Ethereum dropped the most, giving up 14.5% for the week. Palladium saw the largest gain, rising 3.1%.

The Japanese Yen fell more than any other currency, losing 1.4%. the Chinese Yuan dropped the least, closing off 0.3%. Bonds dropped the least at the long end, as TLT fell 0.9%, while SHY gave up 1.2% and USD cash fell 1.1%.

The last two weeks have been a roller-coaster ride for Ethereum, rising from 15.2 grams to a peak of 19.4 grams on May 5th, then declining gradually to close this week at 16.0 grams, off 14.5% for the week, but a bit above where it sat two weeks ago. Bitcoin followed a similar but somewhat weaker trajectory, rising from 211.5 grams to 234.2 grams on the 5th, and dropping 14.0% this week to close at 198.3 grams, more than 6% below its starting level.

US Stocks were strong, as the S&P 500 rose 1.3% and the Dow gained 1.2%. The Euro STOXX 50 fell 0.6%, and the HUI gold stock index dropped 0.7%.

Commodities saw the largest price moves (aside from the ever-volatile cryptocurrencies). Palladium rose 3.1% and platinum gained 1.6%. On the downside, coffee and cotton each fell 3.7%.

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Weekly Update 20 Apr 2018

Bonds and currencies were mixed, while cryptocurrencies, equities, and commodities were all higher. Ethereum and Bitcoin were by far the strongest assets, rising 25.6% and 12.6% respectively. The weakest asset class was long term bonds, as TLT fell 1.5%.

Among the currencies, the USD rose the most, gaining 0.5%, while the Canadian dollar had the largest drop, falling 0.4%. The Chinese Yuan was the only other decliner, giving up 0.2%. Bonds were mixed, with the long term TLT falling 1.5%, while the 1-3 year SHY rose 0.4% (but was outperformed by zero-maturity USD cash).

For the second week in a row, cryptocurrencies powered higher, leaving all other asset classes in the dust. Ethereum surged 25.6%, with most of the move happening in the last half of the week. Bitcoin rose "only" 12.6%, following the same pattern.

Stock indexes all rose, led by the Nikkei, which gained 2.1%. US stocks were the weakest, with the Dow Jones Industrials rising 0.9%. Gold stocks were also up 0.9%.

Commodities were the strongest assets outside of the cryptocurrencies. Palladium rose 5.1% and silver gained 4.2%. The weakest commodities were coffee, up 0.9% , and platinum, which added 1.0%. Copper rose 2.4%.

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Weekly Update 13 Apr 2018: Crypto Rebound

Cryptocurrencies rebounded strongly this week, while national currencies and bonds were mostly lower, and stocks and commodities were mostly higher. The biggest gains were in Ethereum, which rose 31.8%, while the largest losses were in long term bonds, as the TLT fell 1.4%.

The Canadian Dollar was the only rising currency, gaining 0.4%. The Japanese Yen was the weakest currency, falling 1.3%. Long term bonds fell 1.4%, short term bonds dropped 1.3%, and USD cash declined 0.9%.

The ever-volatile cryptocurrencies slammed into forward this week, as Bitcoin rose 17.9% to 182.8 grams, and Ethereum rose 31.8% to close at 11.4 grams. Each rose gradually through the week until Thursday, when they rushed higher on heavy volume. Weakness in recent weeks may be due in part to US holders (including major exchanges) selling cryptos to raise the dollars needed to pay taxes by April 16. If this is true, we could see higher prices in the weeks ahead.

The only falling stock index was the Nikkei 225, which lost 0.3%. Gold stocks were very strong, rising 2.1%. The Euro STOXX 50 added 1.0%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.8%.

Cryptocurrencies aside, commodities were the week's biggest winners as crude oil and palladium rose 7.6% and 7.5% respectively. Coffee and copper were the only declining commodities, giving up 1.1% and 0.5% respectively. Platinum, which hit all-time lows last week, rose 1.0% this week. Silver was up 0.5%.

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