Weekly Update 28 Feb 2020

Stocks and cryptocurrencies fell, bonds and most national currencies rose, and commodities were mixed. The big winner was 20+ year treasury bonds, which soared 7.1%; the Japanese Yen came second, gaining 5.7%. Crude oil registered the largest loss, falling 14.4% to a four year low. Ethereum dropped 12.8%, leaving it about where it was three weeks ago. Platinum closed at a new all-time low, and silver saw its lowest close since October of 1992.

The only declining national currency was the Chinese Yuan, which fell just 0.2%; all other major currencies were higher, led by the Japanese Yen which soared 5.7%. The Euro came second, gaining 3.3%. USD cash rose 2.1%, but its short term bonds added 2.9% and its long term bonds spiked 7.1% higher scoring the week's largest gain.

Ethereum fell 12.8%, wiping out its gains for the last three weeks. Bitcoin rose early in the week to 187.8 grams, then declined to a low of 165.4 grams on Thursday before rallying to close at 167.6 grams, down 8.6%. Some smaller cryptos were hit even harder than Ethereum; for instance, DASH (not in table) fell 16.9%.

The best performing stock index was the Japanese Nikkei; it fell "only" 4.4%, boosted by the super-strong Yen. Gold stocks registered the largest loss, falling 11.9%, but the Dow Industrials were close on its heels, dropping 10.5%. The DOW's recent decline may be related to concerns over the COVID-19 outbreak, but it is part of a downward pattern of lower highs and lower lows that began in late 2018.

Commodities were a very mixed bag, with huge losses for crude oil, cotton and platinum, combined with solid gains for palladium and coffee. Crude oil fell 14.4% to 865 mg/bbl, the week's biggest drop and a four year low. Platinum closed at 16.8 grams, down 8.9%, a new all-time low. Palladium continued to climb, adding 3.2%, while coffee rose 3.1%, reversing the prior week's loss. Silver fell 5.5% to 332 mg, its lowest price since 8-Oct-1992 and only 7.4% above its all-time low of 309 mg set on 25-Feb-1991. Natural gas (not in table) also hit a new all-time low this week, closing at 32.5 mg per million BTU.

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Weekly Update 21 Feb 2020

National currencies, cryptocurrencies, bonds, and major stock indexes fell while commodities were mixed. The big winners were gold stocks, which rose 6.6%, and palladium, which gained 5.3%. Cryptocurrencies took the biggest hits, as Ethereum dropped 10.1% and Bitcoin fell 9.6%. Although Ethereum registered the largest loss in absolute terms, I see it as a healthy correction following last week's massive 26.9% gain.

National currencies were all down hard, led by the Japanese Yen, which fell 5.4%. The British Pound (not in table) came in second, dropping 4.2%. The Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc (not in table) declined the least, closing down 3.5%. The US Dollar, off 3.8%, was outperformed by its bonds; the short term SHY fell 3.5%, and the long term TLT dropped 1.4%.

Bitcoin declined only slightly through Tuesday the 18th, then fell hard on the 19th, and continued to slide into the end of the week, finishing down 9.6%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, losing 10.1%. Some smaller cryptos slid much more, for example, DASH closed down 21.7%.

Although gold stocks scored the largest gains of the week, rising 6.6%, all major indexes closed much lower. The Japanese Nikkei fell 6.6%, while the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 closed down 5.1% and 5.0% respectively.

Commodities were all lower except for palladium and silver. Palladium gained 5.3%, second only to gold stocks. Silver was up 0.9%. Platinum and copper shared last place, falling 3.4% each.

Many national currencies are now at their all-time record lows, including the Euro, Canadian Dollar, British Pound, Australian Dollar, Russian Ruble, and the Chilean and Argentinian Pesos. Other major currencies are approaching their all-time lows: The Swiss Franc is 4.1% above, the Chinese Yuan 4.7% above, and the Japanese Yen is 10.8% above. Even the mighty US Dollar sits just 13.4% above its all-time low set back in September of 2011.

Looking back one year, only five assets are in the black: Bitcoin, up 98.5%, Palladium and Ethereum, up 47.1% and 45.2% respectively, gold stocks, up 15.8%, and long bonds, up 1.7%. The largest losses are all in commodities, as copper dropped 27.1%, cotton fell 24.5%, and crude oil declined 24.1%. But national currencies weren't far behind; the Euro in particular has lost 22.5%. Gold is the safe haven form of cash, while cryptos and gold stocks have been good holdings for growth.

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Weekly Update 14 Feb 2020

Cryptocurrencies rose again, stocks and commodities were mixed, and national currencies and bonds moved lower. Similar to last week, Ethereum soared 26.9% and Bitcoin gained 4.7%… but that was only enough to put Bitcoin in 4th place behind coffee (up 10.3%) and palladium, which added 6.4%. The largest losses were in the Euro, which fell 1.6%. In a three-way tie for second place were the Nikkei index, the HUI gold stocks, and cotton, each down 1.1%.

All the national currencies in our table were down, but the British Pound (not in table) was a hidden gem, managing to finish the week unchanged. As mentioned above, the Euro had the week's largest drop, falling 1.6%. The Swiss Franc (not in table) dropped 1.1%. The US Dollar had the next biggest currency decline, closing down 0.6%. Bonds did slightly better than USD cash, as both the short term SHY and the long term TLT finished 0.5% lower.

Ethereum rose steadily through the week, jumping higher on Wednesday the 12th and finishing at 5.59 grams, up 26.9% for the week, and 110% higher for year to date. Bitcoin also rose, peaking at 205.4 grams on the 12th, then settling back to close at 202.8 grams, up 4.7%. Ethereum was not alone in outpacing Bitcoin. Bitcoin Dominance (Bitcoin market capitalization as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap) fell from 65.3% to 62.3%, indicating that the broader crypto market rose much faster than Bitcoin did this week.

The S&P 500 was the winningest stock index this week, rising 1.0%. The HUI gold stocks and the Japanese Nikkei index saw the largest losses, dropping 1.1% apiece. The Dow Industrials rose 0.5%.

Commodities had the largest gains outside of the cryptocurrencies. Coffee soared 10.3%, reversing the losses of the past 3 weeks. Palladium also made strong gains, rising 6.4%, but silver and platinum declined, falling 0.9% and 0.5% respectively. Cotton made the poorest showing in the commodity space, dropping 1.1%. Although not in the table, natural gas prices, which have been declining since last September, hit a new all-time low of 34.9 grams on Monday the 10th, then rallied to close the week at 36.1 grams, down 1.7%.

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Weekly Update 7 Feb 2020

Cryptocurrencies continued to rise this week, but other asset classes were mixed. Ethereum soared 24.5% and Bitcoin gained 5.5%. The largest losses were in coffee, which fell a further 3.5%, and gold stocks, which dropped 2.7%. In contrast, other major stock markets did quite well, with the S&P 500 and Euro STOXX adding 3.9% apiece.

In the national currency space, the US Dollar outperformed, rising 0.7%. The Japanese Yen and the Euro were weakest, falling 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. This puts the Japanese Yen at its lowest point in 40 years! USD Cash outperformed its bonds; the short term SHY gained 0.6% while the 20+ year TLT fell 0.1%.

Cryptocurrencies were the week's best performers. Bitcoin spiked higher on the 5th, and ended the week at 193.7 grams, up a solid 5.5%. But the smaller altcoins saw even larger gains; Ethereum rose 24.5%, and DASH (not in table) gained 14.0%.

Although gold stocks fell 2.7%, all other major equity indexes moved higher. The S&P 500 and Euro STOXX50 closed up 3.9% each, but the Dow Industrials were close behind, gaining 3.8%. The Nikkei 225 added 2.1%.

Coffee continued to fall this week, dropping 3.5%, the week's largest loss. Crude oil also declined, falling 1.7%. Copper and platinum made the largest gains in the commodity sector, rising 2.2% and 2.0% respectively. Silver was little changed, closing up just 0.1%.

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Weekly Update 31 Jan 2020

The big news this week centered around the coronavirus outbreak, as total cases approached 12,000 (mostly in China) and the US declared a public health emergency and restricted travel to and from China. Big beneficiaries of the scare were cryptocurrencies and long term bonds. National currencies, stocks, and commodities all moved lower. The largest gains were in Bitcoin and Ethereum, which rose 9.3% and 9.1% respectively. Commodities took the biggest hits, as coffee dropped 8.0% and palladium fell 7.7%.

The Canadian Dollar was the hardest hit of the national currencies, falling 1.9%. The Japanese Yen fared best, giving up just 0.3%. The US Dollar and Chinese Yuan each fell 1.3%; but since the Shanghai Gold Exchange has been closed this week, the figure for the CNY is just an estimate. Bonds did better than USD cash, as the short term SHY fell 1.0% and the long term TLT rose 1.4%.

Cryptocurrencies worked their way higher, peaking on Thursday the 30th. Bitcoin hit 187.4 grams before closing at 183.6 grams, up 9.3% for the week. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, ending up 9.1%. Some smaller cryptos did even better; for instance, DASH (not in table) rose 14.0%.

Stock indexes all declined, led lower by the European STOXX, which fell 4.3%. Gold stocks dropped the least, closing down 2.1%. The Dow Industrials were off 3.8%.

As mentioned earlier, commodities saw the largest declines of the week. Coffee fell 8.0%, palladium was down 7.7%, and copper slid 7.4%. Silver outperformed other commodities, reasserting its monetary nature and giving up just 1.0%.

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Weekly Update 24 Jan 2020

Most asset classes moved lower; the main exceptions were gold stocks, which rose 3.0%, and long term treasury bonds, which gained 2.5%. The largest losses were in crude oil, which dropped 7.8%, and copper, which fell 6.1%. Cryptocurrencies also pulled back, less than some commodities, but more than stocks or bonds.

Among the national currencies, only the Yen managed a gain, rising 0.2%. The Euro fell most, dropping 1.1%. The US Dollar declined 0.4%; its bonds did better than cash, as the short term SHY was off 0.3% and the long term TLT rose 2.5%.

Cryptos saw a broad decline; Bitcoin dropped 5.8% and Ethereum declined 4.9%. Some of the smaller cryptos fell much more. DASH (not in table) plummeted 12.2%, but to be fair, this gave back only a small part of the previous week's monumental 102% gain.

Gold stocks made the largest gains of any asset, rising 3.0%, but all the other equities in the table fell. The European STOXX index dropped the most, falling 2.2%. In the US, the Dow Jones 30 Industrials declined 1.6% and the broader S&P 500 gave up 1.4%.

Commodities all declined, led by crude oil and copper which fell 7.8% and 6.1% respectively. The precious metals fared the best, as Platinum dropped 0.7% and palladium pulled back 0.8%. Silver closed 1.7% lower.

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Weekly Update 17 Jan 2020 Crypto Rush!

Cryptocurrencies rose strongly again, bonds declined, and national currencies, equities and commodities were mixed. Ethereum soared 18.3% and palladium jumped 16.5%, the largest winners this week. Coffee fell 6.0% and gold stocks declined 1.3%, making them the worst losses.

Among national currencies, only the Chinese Yuan made gains, rising 0.5%. The largest decline was in the Japanese Yen, which fell 0.8% to the lowest level since 1980. The Euro, the Canadian Dollar, and the Australian Dollar (not in table) all are just a hair above their lows of the same period.

Bonds fell; the short term SHY slid 0.2% and the long term TLT declined 0.6%.

Cryptocurrency prices continued to move higher, with the smaller "alt" coins rising faster than Bitcoin. While Bitcoin rose 9.1%, Ethereum advanced 18.3%. Some smaller coins gained much more; DASH, for example, more than doubled in value, rising 101.6%. Many other small coins added 50% or more. The reasons for this are not clear to me. Most of the move occurred on Tuesday the 14th, and might be related to the opening of CME Bitcoin options trading. Concerns that Craig Wright may have acquired the private keys to Satoshi's 1.1 million BTC hoard may have prompted diversification out of Bitcoin and into altcoins. If true, and a large number of Bitcoins were dumped on the market, it would certainly depress BTC prices temporarily; but the inexorable halvings and consequent increases in stocks-to-flow ratio still should eventually push Bitcoin prices to new highs. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out!

The only equities to fall this week were the gold stocks, which declined 1.3%. The S&P 500 and Dow Industrials showed the most strength, rising 1.7% and 1.6% respectively. The Japanese Nikkei index was unchanged.

Commodities were a wild mix. Palladium and platinum were big winners, rising 16.5% and 4.6% respectively. On the other hand, coffee fell 6.0% and crude oil declined 1.1%. Silver and copper managed modest gains of 0.6% and 0.9%.

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Weekly Update 10 Jan 2020

This week saw a massive updraft for cryptocurrencies and a mix of gains and losses in commodities, while stocks, bonds and national currencies moved lower. Bitcoin and Ethereum closed up 9.3% and 7.0% respectively to become the week's largest winners. Crude oil plunged 8.0% and coffee dropped 7.5%, the largest losses for the week. Palladium rose 4.9% to a new 18 year high.

National currencies were all lower, led by the Japanese Yen, which slumped 1.7%. The Chinese Yuan fell least, giving up just 0.1%. The US Dollar closed off 0.3%. Bonds fared much worse than cash, as the short term SHY declined 1.8% and the long term TLT fell 2.2%.

Cryptocurrencies held onto their gains from the end of last week and continued to build on them. Bitcoin and Ethereum both worked their way higher, closing up 9.3% and 7.0% respectively. Some smaller cryptos did even better; for instance, DASH (not in table) rose 26.4%.

Equities were all lower, but gold stocks fell the most, dropping 4.7%. The Dow Industrials fell the least, giving up 1.1%. The S&P 500 declined 2.6%.

Commodities were a wild mix. Crude oil and coffee had the largest declines of any assets this week, falling 8.0% and 7.5% respectively. But on the plus side, palladium rose 4.9% and cotton gained 1.3%. Palladium's price is now higher that it has been since 23-Jan-2002. Silver, "the other monetary metal", declined 3.3%, and copper retreated 0.8%.

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Weekly Update 3 Jan 2020

National currencies and stock markets were lower this week; cryptocurrencies, bonds, and commodities were mixed. Ethereum and palladium reversed course to become the week's largest winners, gaining 2.9% each. Platinum earned honorable mention, rising 2.8%. The table's largest losses were in coffee and copper which fell 5.6% and 2.5% respectively, but the UK FTSE index (not in table) dropped 2.8%.

The largest loss in a national currency was in the British Pound Sterling (not in table) which declined 2.6%. The US Dollar and the Euro tied for second place, falling 2.4% each. The Japanese Yen outperformed, giving up just 1.0%. Bonds did much better than cash, as the short term SHY declined 0.9% and the long term TLT added 0.3%.

Bitcoin rose over the weekend, reaching a high of 152.7 grams on Sunday, then declined to a low of 143.4 on Thursday, but recovered to close at 149.6 grams, off 0.3%. The sudden recovery on Friday seems to be linked to the US drone strikes in Iraq; it is reported that Bitcoin traded as high as $29,000 USD on Iranian exchanges that day (I don't know what gold traded for in Iran at that time, so I can't give a proper gold price for BTC.) Ethereum followed a similar pattern but finished up 2.9%. Some smaller cryptos did even better; DASH (not in table) ended the week up 9.3%.

As previously mentioned, the UK FTSE index (not in table) led declines among the equities, falling 2.8%. The Euro STOXX FEZ came in second, dropping 1.5%. The Japanese Nikkei shows a loss of just 0.4%, but had a very short trading period ending on Dec 30th. Gold stocks also outperformed, giving up 0.7%.

Precious metals did well this week, as palladium climbed 2.9% and platinum gained 2.8%. Silver and crude oil vied for third place, adding 1.1% each. The worst losses were in coffee, down 5.6%, and copper, off 2.5%.

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Weekly Update 27 Dec 2019 Happy New Year!

Most assets were lower this week; the only exceptions were gold stocks, up 5.9%, and silver, up 2.4%. The largest losses were in palladium and Ethereum which fell 3.6% each. Long term treasury bonds fell 2.4%, making them the next worst performing asset in the table.

National currencies all fell, led by the Japanese Yen, which declined 2.3%. The Canadian Dollar and Euro tied for the best performer spot, falling 1.5% each. The US Dollar dropped 2.2%; short term treasuries did slightly better, giving up 2.1%, and long term treasuries did slightly worse, falling 2.4%.

Cryptocurrencies also declined. Ethereum rose to 2.78 grams on Dec-22, but then started falling, ending the week off 3.6%. Bitcoin declined 1.2% following a similar trajectory.

Gold stocks were the week's biggest winner, surging 5.9%, but all other major indexes were lower. The Nikkei fell the most, dropping 2.2%. The Dow Industrials closed down 1.5%.

Silver gained 2.4%, but all other commodities closed lower. Palladium was the weakest, falling 3.6%. Copper was down 1.3% and platinum was off 1.1%.

Wishing you all the best, hoping that 2020 will be a very happy and successful year: a strong start to an excellent decade! Thanks for being part of the Priced in Gold family!

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