Weekly Update 24 Apr 2020

Cryptocurrencies advanced, national currencies continued to decline, and stocks, bonds, and commodities were mixed but mostly lower. Coffee fell the most, dropping 9.3%, outpacing even crude oil, which declined a further 8.5%. Gold stocks made the largest gains, rising 12.0%.

The British Pound (not in table) led the national currency declines, falling 2.7%. The worst performers in the table were the Euro, down 2.1%, and the Chinese Yuan, off 1.9%. The Japanese Yen outperformed, giving up 1.3%. US Dollar cash and 1-3 year USD Bonds each declined 1.4%, while long term treasury bonds gained 0.4%.

Bitcoin dropped hard on Monday, to a low of 126.9 grams, then climbed through the rest of the week to finish at 136.9 grams, up 5.0%. Ethereum didn't experience much of a downdraft on Monday, but did rise as the week progressed, finishing up 8.8%.

The only rising equity asset was the HUI gold stock index, which beat all other asset classes this week, gaining 12.0%. The Japanese Nikkei index had the worst losses, falling 4.4%. The US S&P 500 slid 2.7%, the smallest loss among the major markets.

Cotton was the only commodity in the black, rising a respectable 4.0%. Coffee had the largest loss of any asset this week, falling 9.3%. Crude crashed on Monday, with the May futures contract actually going negative. I have chosen to switch to the June contract to get a more realistic view of the price, but even that cratered to a new all-time low of 213 mg per barrel, 37% below the previous week's close of 336 mg. Over the course of the week crude recovered somewhat, ending at 307 mg, down 8.5%.

Lack of demand due to government-mandated lockdowns, a shortage of storage facilities, and price wars between the oil producing nations — all of whom are desperate for revenues — will continue to impact this market for some time; and the impacts will extend into the broader economy as closures, bankruptcies, and defaults grow.

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Weekly Update 17 Apr 2020 Oil Crash!

Cryptocurrencies advanced, while national currencies, stocks, bonds, and commodities were mixed. Crude oil plummeted again, closing down 20.3% to a new all-time low. Gasoline, diesel and natural gas (not in table) also made new all-time lows this week, as did copper. Ethereum made the largest gains, rising 7.6%.

The Japanese Yen advanced 0.2% but all other national currencies closed lower. The biggest drops were in the Canadian Dollar, off 1.3%, and the Euro, down 1.2%. The US Dollar fell 0.7%, as did SHY, the short term treasury bond fund. The TLT long term bond fund rose 0.7%.

Cryptocurrencies fell early in the week, hitting their lows on Wednesday the 15th, then rose to finish the week in the black. Bitcoin fell to 120.2 grams, then recovered to close at 130.4 grams, up 2.6%. Ethereum saw a low of 2.77 grams before rising to end the week at 3.15 grams, up 7.6%.

Stock markets were mostly higher, although the Euro STOXX50 closed down 1.3% and the British FTSE (not in table) fell 1.4%. Gold stocks continued to show the most upside, rising 4.3%. The S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 indexes added 2.3% each.

The big fireworks were once again in the oil patch, as crude dropped 20.3% to close at 336 mg per barrel. This slide continued and intensified over the weekend, and the May futures contract closed today (Monday the 20th) at an astounding MINUS 694 mg per barrel. It looks like the producers are going to be paying refiners to haul away their oil! Obviously, this isn't a tenable situation… but as the old saying goes, the best cure for low prices is low prices. Platinum outperformed, gaining 5.4%. Copper fell to a new all-time low before bouncing back to end the week up 2.4%.

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Weekly Update 10 Apr 2020

Stocks moved higher, national currencies and bonds declined, and cryptocurrencies and commodities were mixed. Crude oil continued to be volatile, giving up most of last week's gains by closing down 22.9%. Gold stocks were the biggest winner, rising 11.5%.

National currencies all fell. The Japanese Yen and the US Dollar fell the most, giving up 4.0% each. The British Pound (not in table) outperformed, dropping 2.4%. The best performer in the table was the Chinese Yuan, off 2.6%. Short term bonds tracked USD cash, dropping 4.0%. The long term bond fund TLT did much worse, closing down 5.8%.

Bitcoin worked its way higher early in the week, peaking at 138.4 grams on Wednesday, then collapsed on Thursday and Friday, ending the week at 127.1 grams, down 2.1%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, peaking at 3.26 grams on Wednesday, but fell much less and ended at 2.93 grams, up 7.0%.

Stocks had their week in the sun, as all indexes I track moved higher. In fact, the week's 1st, 2nd and 3rd place performers were all equities. Top honors went to the HUI gold stock index, which finished up 11.5%. US stocks rounded out the top 3, as the Dow Industrials rose 8.1% and the S&P 500 gained 7.6%. The Japanese Nikkei under-performed the other indexes, but still added a striking 5.0%.

Crude oil fell 22.9%, giving back nearly all of the prior week's gains and closing at 415 mg per barrel, 7.4% above its all-time low. Other parts of the energy complex, including retail gasoline and US natural gas are also near their all-time lows. Cotton was the best performing commodity, rising 2.4%; the only other commodity in the black was silver, which closed up 1.2%.

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Weekly Update 3 Apr 2020

Cryptocurrencies, bonds and gold stocks were in the black, major stock indexes declined, and national currencies and commodities were mixed. The wildest ride was in crude oil, which hit a new all-time low of 386 mg per barrel on Monday, then began rising. On Thursday and Friday it shot higher, finishing the week at 546 mg, up 32.1%. The largest losses were in Japanese stocks, which dropped 8.1%, and palladium, down 4.8%.

The weakest national currency was the Euro, closing down 2.2%. The Chinese Yuan was strongest, rising 0.8%. US Dollar cash added 0.3%, but was outperformed by its bonds, as the short term SHY gained 0.4% and the long term TLT rose 0.9%.

Bitcoin fell early in the week, hitting a low of 113.9 grams on Sunday, then rallied through the rest of the week to close at 129.8 grams, up 4.3%. Ethereum followed a similar path, ending up 6.4%. Not all cryptos rose, however. For example, DASH (not in table) closed last week at 1.33 grams; like BTC and ETH, hit its low of 1.17 grams on Sunday and climbed through the week, but didn't manage to recover all of its early losses and ended at 1.30 grams, down 2.2%.

Gold stocks were the only rising equities as the HUI index gained 3.5%. As mentioned above, the Japanese Nikkei suffered the largest fall, dropping 8.1%. The European STOXX50 came in second, declining 4.5%. US stocks "outperformed" as the S&P 500 fell just 1.8%.

Commodities were mostly lower; the only exceptions were crude oil – which spiked 32.1% – and silver, which managed a 0.8% gain. The worst performers were palladium, which fell 4.8%, and platinum which declined 3.5%.

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Weekly Update 27 Mar 2020

Cryptocurrencies, national currencies and bonds fell, equities rose, and commodities were mixed. The largest gains and losses were all in commodities, with copper, crude oil, cotton and gasoline making new all-time lows. The largest gains were in palladium and platinum; they rose 27.3% and 11.7% respectively. Cotton took the biggest hit, falling 12.8%. Crude oil continued to collapse, dropping 12.6%.

National currencies all moved lower, led by the Chinese Yuan (down 7.9%) and the US Dollar (off 7.6%). The best performing currency was the British Pound (not in table) which fell just 2.8%. Bonds outperformed cash, as the short term SHY dropped 7.4% and the long term TLT declined 2.8%.

Bitcoin fell 3.6%, but outperformed all the national currencies in the table. On Sunday it fell to a low of 128.7 grams, then recovered to a high of 130.8 on Tuesday before sinking gradually to a close of 124.4 grams. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, dropping 6.8%.

Equities had their time in the sun this week. The Japanese Nikkei index led the charge higher, gaining 11.4%. US indexes under-performed; the S&P 500 rose 1.9% and the Dow Industrials added 4.3%. Gold stocks gained 7.9%.

Commodities were crazy again this week. Cotton and crude oil were the biggest losers, falling 12.8% and 12.6% respectively, and ending the week at new all-time lows. Copper and US retail gasoline (not in table) also hit new all-time lows this week. On the other side of the coin, palladium and platinum were the best performing of all assets in the table, rising 27.3% and 11.7% respectively. Silver (up 4.7%) was the only other commodity in the black, making a clean sweep for the precious metals.

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Weekly Update 20 Mar 2020: New lows in Commodities

Cryptocurrencies, national currencies, bonds and gold stocks moved higher, major stock indexes fell, and commodities were mixed. The largest gains were in coffee and Bitcoin; they rose 18.9% and 16.5% respectively. Crude oil fell the most, collapsing 25.1%. Platinum and silver were also hit hard, falling 17.9% and 16.2% respectively. Many commodities made new all-time lows this week, including silver, platinum, copper, crude oil, and cotton.

National currencies were led higher by the Chinese Yuan, up 4.8% and the US Dollar, up 4.6%. The Japanese Yen and the Euro trailed behind, gaining 0.7% and 1.0% respectively. Bonds outperformed cash, with the short term SHY rising 4.8% and the long term TLT climbing 8.3%.

Bitcoin slumped lower early in the week, then began a gradual recovery that sprinted higher on Thursday, hitting a high of 130.6 grams before settling back to close at 129.0 grams, up 16.5%. Ethereum followed a similar path, but ended up just 4.2%. DASH (not in table) also dipped before rising at the end of the week, but skyrocketed 45.9% to close at 1.48 grams. Although this makes DASH an outstanding gainer this week, this price increase is a bounce from a very low level.

In the equity space, gold stocks rose 6.2% while all major stock indexes fell. US markets dropped the most, with the Dow Jones leading the way lower by falling 13.5%, while the S&P 500 slid 11.1%. The Japanese Nikkei outperformed, but still gave up 4.4%.

Commodities were wild, as the group included both the best performing asset (coffee, up 18.9%, and the only rising commodity) and the worst performing asset (crude oil, down 25.1%). Platinum and silver were particularly hard hit, falling 17.9% and 16.2% respectively. As mentioned earlier, many commodities made new all-time lows this week: copper and crude oil on Wednesday, silver and platinum on Thursday, and cotton on Friday.

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Weekly Update 13 Mar 2020 Market Madness

Cryptocurrencies and stocks fell, national currencies soared, and commodities and bonds were mixed. The largest gains were in 1-3 year bonds and their zero maturity sibling, the USD; they rose 7.8% and 7.7% respectively. Coffee wasn't far behind, gaining 7.1%. Ethereum suffered the most, collapsing 41.1%. Bitcoin dropped 34.3%, while palladium and gold stocks vied for third place, falling 26.9% and 26.6%.

The market action this week was dominated by a move into cash, and national currencies were huge beneficiaries of this. Even the weakest currency, the Canadian Dollar, rose 3.4%. The US Dollar, still being the world's reserve currency, gained the most, rising 7.7%. SHY, the 1-3 year bond ETF, rose slightly more than cash, closing up 7.8%. Long term bonds finished down 0.6%.

Cryptos fell hard, led by Ethereum, which hit a low of 2.22 grams on Thursday, then rallied to finish the week at 2.65 grams, down 41.1%, and 92% below its all time high. Bitcoin followed a similar pattern, making a low of 98.4 grams before recovering to close at 110.7 grams, down 34.3% for the week, and 77% below its all-time high. Despite these reverses, only Bitcoin and long term bonds are still higher today than they were a year ago, up 19.1% and 8.1% respectively.

Equities all moved lower, led by the HUI gold stocks which closed down 26.6%. The best performer was the S&P 500, which rose and fell repeatedly, hitting a low of 49.1 grams on Thursday, but recovered to finish the week at 54.0 grams, down 1.7%. The European STOXX 50 ended down 11.4%, while the UK FTSE 100 index (not in table) dropped 14.1%.

Commodities were some of the week's best and worst performers: coffee gained 7.1%, and palladium plummeted 26.9%. Several commodities made new all-time lows on Monday, including copper, crude oil, and cotton; but copper and cotton rebounded to finish the week up 3.6% and 3.8% respectively. Platinum fell 5.9% to a new all-time low of 15.6 grams/oz, and silver declined 2.8% to 314 mg/oz, hovering just above its all-time low of 309 mg/oz.

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Weekly Update 6 Mar 2020

National currencies, commodities, and most stocks fell, while cryptocurrencies rose, and bonds were mixed. Gold stocks scored the largest gains, rising 6.6%, but all major stock indexes closed lower. Long bonds (TLT) and Ethereum vied for second place, gaining 2.8% and 2.7% respectively. Crude oil once again registered the largest loss, falling 11.8% to a new four year low. Natural gas (not in table) recorded a new all-time low.

The US and Canadian Dollars led the national currencies lower, falling 4.4% each. The Chinese Yuan dropped the least, giving up 1.3%. Bonds did better than cash, as the short term SHY fell 3.7% and the long term TLT rose 2.8%.

Cryptocurrencies, gold stocks and long bonds were the week's only winners. Ethereum worked its way higher, rising 2.8%. Bitcoin see-sawed back and forth, hitting a low of 165.4 grams and a high of 172.5 grams before closing at 168.5 grams, up 0.6%.

Although gold stocks scored the week's largest gain, rising 6.6%, all major stock indexes lost ground. The Euro STOXX fell the most, dropping 5.3%, to a level not seen since 2013. The next largest drops were in the Japanese Nikkei 225 and the S&P 500, which declined 3.9% and 3.8% respectively. The Dow Industrials "outperformed", falling 2.7%.

The worst performers were all commodities; crude oil collapsed 11.8% to 760 mg, while palladium fell 9.6% to 47.5 grams/oz. The best performing commodity was cotton, which gave up 2.4%. Silver was the second best performer, falling 2.7% to close at 323 mg/oz.

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Weekly Update 28 Feb 2020

Stocks and cryptocurrencies fell, bonds and most national currencies rose, and commodities were mixed. The big winner was 20+ year treasury bonds, which soared 7.1%; the Japanese Yen came second, gaining 5.7%. Crude oil registered the largest loss, falling 14.4% to a four year low. Ethereum dropped 12.8%, leaving it about where it was three weeks ago. Platinum closed at a new all-time low, and silver saw its lowest close since October of 1992.

The only declining national currency was the Chinese Yuan, which fell just 0.2%; all other major currencies were higher, led by the Japanese Yen which soared 5.7%. The Euro came second, gaining 3.3%. USD cash rose 2.1%, but its short term bonds added 2.9% and its long term bonds spiked 7.1% higher scoring the week's largest gain.

Ethereum fell 12.8%, wiping out its gains for the last three weeks. Bitcoin rose early in the week to 187.8 grams, then declined to a low of 165.4 grams on Thursday before rallying to close at 167.6 grams, down 8.6%. Some smaller cryptos were hit even harder than Ethereum; for instance, DASH (not in table) fell 16.9%.

The best performing stock index was the Japanese Nikkei; it fell "only" 4.4%, boosted by the super-strong Yen. Gold stocks registered the largest loss, falling 11.9%, but the Dow Industrials were close on its heels, dropping 10.5%. The DOW's recent decline may be related to concerns over the COVID-19 outbreak, but it is part of a downward pattern of lower highs and lower lows that began in late 2018.

Commodities were a very mixed bag, with huge losses for crude oil, cotton and platinum, combined with solid gains for palladium and coffee. Crude oil fell 14.4% to 865 mg/bbl, the week's biggest drop and a four year low. Platinum closed at 16.8 grams, down 8.9%, a new all-time low. Palladium continued to climb, adding 3.2%, while coffee rose 3.1%, reversing the prior week's loss. Silver fell 5.5% to 332 mg, its lowest price since 8-Oct-1992 and only 7.4% above its all-time low of 309 mg set on 25-Feb-1991. Natural gas (not in table) also hit a new all-time low this week, closing at 32.5 mg per million BTU.

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Weekly Update 21 Feb 2020

National currencies, cryptocurrencies, bonds, and major stock indexes fell while commodities were mixed. The big winners were gold stocks, which rose 6.6%, and palladium, which gained 5.3%. Cryptocurrencies took the biggest hits, as Ethereum dropped 10.1% and Bitcoin fell 9.6%. Although Ethereum registered the largest loss in absolute terms, I see it as a healthy correction following last week's massive 26.9% gain.

National currencies were all down hard, led by the Japanese Yen, which fell 5.4%. The British Pound (not in table) came in second, dropping 4.2%. The Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc (not in table) declined the least, closing down 3.5%. The US Dollar, off 3.8%, was outperformed by its bonds; the short term SHY fell 3.5%, and the long term TLT dropped 1.4%.

Bitcoin declined only slightly through Tuesday the 18th, then fell hard on the 19th, and continued to slide into the end of the week, finishing down 9.6%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, losing 10.1%. Some smaller cryptos slid much more, for example, DASH closed down 21.7%.

Although gold stocks scored the largest gains of the week, rising 6.6%, all major indexes closed much lower. The Japanese Nikkei fell 6.6%, while the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 closed down 5.1% and 5.0% respectively.

Commodities were all lower except for palladium and silver. Palladium gained 5.3%, second only to gold stocks. Silver was up 0.9%. Platinum and copper shared last place, falling 3.4% each.

Many national currencies are now at their all-time record lows, including the Euro, Canadian Dollar, British Pound, Australian Dollar, Russian Ruble, and the Chilean and Argentinian Pesos. Other major currencies are approaching their all-time lows: The Swiss Franc is 4.1% above, the Chinese Yuan 4.7% above, and the Japanese Yen is 10.8% above. Even the mighty US Dollar sits just 13.4% above its all-time low set back in September of 2011.

Looking back one year, only five assets are in the black: Bitcoin, up 98.5%, Palladium and Ethereum, up 47.1% and 45.2% respectively, gold stocks, up 15.8%, and long bonds, up 1.7%. The largest losses are all in commodities, as copper dropped 27.1%, cotton fell 24.5%, and crude oil declined 24.1%. But national currencies weren't far behind; the Euro in particular has lost 22.5%. Gold is the safe haven form of cash, while cryptos and gold stocks have been good holdings for growth.

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