Weekly Update 15 Sep 2017

Currencies, bonds and major stock indexes were higher, commodities were mixed, and digital tokens fell hard again this week. The largest losses were in digital tokens, as Ethereum fell 14.2% and Bitcoin dropped 12.1%. The biggest gains were in coffee and crude oil, which added 10.1% and 6.9% respectively.

The US Dollar was the best performing currency in this chart, rising 1.8%, but it was trounced by the Pound Sterling, which gained 4.9%. The Japanese Yen was the only declining currency, dropping 0.9%. Bonds were up, with the 20+ year TLT adding 0.1%, while the 1-3 year SHY gained 1.6%. Neither rose as much as USD cash, however.

Bitcoin continued falling through most of the week, hit hard by an order from the Chinese central bank to close all cryptocurrency exchanges. After bottoming at 72.8 grams on Thursday, it rallied to end the week at 87.7 grams, down 12.1%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, hitting a low of 5.2 grams on Thursday (47% below its all-time high), but recovered to close the week at 6.1 grams, down 14.2%. Both BTC and ETH continued to rally over the weekend, with ETH trading at 6.9 grams and BTC trading at 96.4 grams on Monday.

Stocks were higher, with the exception of gold stocks, which dropped 2.8%. The Dow Jones Industrials gained the most, rising 4.0%. The Japanese Nikkei rose 2.4%, the least of the major indexes.

Coffee was the strongest of the commodities, rising 10.1%. Cotton fell the most, dropping 5.8%. Crude oil was also strong, gaining 6.9%. Silver was down 1.1% while platinum was off 2.0%.

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Weekly Update 8 Sep 2017

Currencies and commodities were mixed, while bonds, and stocks, and digital tokens were all lower this week. In a major reversal, the largest losses were in digital tokens, as Ethereum fell 23.4% and Bitcoin dropped 14.5%. The biggest gains were in silver and cotton, which added 2.1% and 1.8% respectively.

The Canadian Dollar was the best performing national currency, rising 0.6%. The US Dollar fell the most, dropping 1.9%. Bonds were down, with the 20+ year TLT falling 0.2%, while the 1-3 year SHY dropped 1.8%.

Bitcoin set a new all-time high of 116.6 grams at the end of last week, but was hit hard by the Chinese ban on ICOs over the weekend, falling to 100.8 grams on Monday. It rallied into Wednesday, closing at 107.66 grams, then sold off to end the week at 99.8 grams, down 14.5%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, ending last week at 9.2 grams, falling to 7.0 grams on Monday, recovering to 7.9 grams on Wednesday, and finally selling off to close the week at 7.1 grams, down 23.4%.

Ethereum was hit harder than Bitcoin in part because its blockchain supports the smart contracts used by many of the new tokens covered by the Chinese central bank ban. Once the dust settles, I expect both of these tokens to exceed their old highs; I see this sell-off as an excellent buying opportunity.

Stocks were down, but gold stocks fell less than the major indexes, dropping 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrials dropped the most, falling 2.8%. The Euro STOXX were off 0.7%.

Silver was the strongest of the commodities, rising 2.1%. Copper fell the most, dropping 4.3%. Crude oil was also weak, falling 1.5%. Palladium was down 2.3% while platinum was off just 0.4%.

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Weekly Update 1 Sep-2017

Commodities were mixed, and digital tokens were very strong, but bonds, currencies, and major stock indexes were all lower this week. The largest gains were in digital tokens, as Ethereum rose 16.1% and Bitcoin gained 9.3%. Gold stocks were also strong, adding 3.1% for the week. The biggest losses were in coffee and crude oil, which dropped 4.4% and 3.8% respectively.

The Chinese Yuan was the best performing national currency, only falling 1.1%. The Japanese Yen fell the most, dropping 3.2%. Bonds were down, with the 20+ year TLT falling 3.1%, while the 1-3 year SHY and USD cash (notes of zero maturity) dropped 2.7% apiece.

Bitcoin rose each day to close the week at 116.6 grams, up 9.3%, and setting a new all-time high. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, ending up 16.1% at 9.2 grams, just 6.3% below its all-time high.

Over the weekend, however, an earthquake hit the cryptocurrency world as the Chinese central bank announced a ban on ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings). This has sent many digital currencies tumbling, especially Ethereum, upon which many of the new tokens are built. On Monday the 4th, Ether was trading just below 7 grams, down 24% from Friday's close. Bitcoin was less affected, dropping about 14% over the weekend. With the US SEC proposing to regulate many tokens as securities, and China imposing an outright ban, many blockchain companies are looking to relocate to Switzerland or the UK, where regulators are taking a more crypto-friendly stance.

Gold stocks outpaced the major indexes, gaining 3.1%. All of the big indexes fell, led by the Euro STOXX, which dropped 2.8%. The S&P 500 fell the least, down 1.3%.

Cotton was the strongest of the commodities, rising 2.7%. Coffee fell the most, dropping 4.4%. Crude oil was also weak, falling 3.8%. Platinum and silver were little changed, off 0.3% and up 0.1% respectively.

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