Weekly Update 20 Dec 2019 Happy Holidays!

Equities and commodities were mixed but weighted to the downside; all other asset groups moved lower. The largest gains were in cotton, which rose 0.9%, and the S&P 500, which added 0.8%. The worst performers were Ethereum, which fell 11.7%, and gold stocks, which dropped 3.6%.

All major currencies fell; the largest drop was in the British pound (not in table) which declined 3.0%, followed by the Euro, which closed 1.3% lower. The smallest declines were in the Canadian and US Dollars, which were off 0.6% and 0.8% respectively. Short term bonds tracked USD cash, pulling back 0.8%, but long dated treasuries fell 1.7%.

Ethereum fell to a low of 2.58 grams on Tuesday, then recovered to end the week at 2.71 grams, down 11.7%. Bitcoin followed a similar but milder path, closing on Tuesday at 140.0 grams, but working higher to finish the week at 151.8 grams, down 1.5%.

Gold stocks fell 3.6% this week, the largest loss aside from Ethereum. US markets were the lone equity gainers, as the S&P 500 rose 0.8% and the Dow Industrials added 0.3%.

Among the commodities, only cotton and copper moved higher, rising 0.9% and 0.1% respectively. Palladium was weakest, falling 2.9%. Silver was off 0.3%.

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Weekly Update 13 Dec 2019

National currencies, bonds, and commodities were mixed, while stocks moved higher and cryptocurrencies continued to drop. The largest gains were in palladium, which rose 4.8%, and coffee, which extended its climb by adding another 4.4%. Bitcoin was the worst performer of the week, falling 4.1%.

The Chinese Yuan and the British Pound Sterling (not in table) each gained 1.3%, the week's best showing among the national currencies. The Japanese Yen was weakest, declining 1.0%. The US Dollar fell 0.5%, but its bonds did a bit better, with the short term SHY dropping 0.4% and the long term TLT rising 0.3%.

Bitcoin started the week strong, rising to a high of 161.2 on Dec 8th, then worked lower for the remainder of the week, ending at 154.2 grams, down 4.1%. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, closing the week 3.3% lower.

Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged, all other indexes were higher, led by the HUI gold stocks, which rose 3.4%. The UK FTSE index (not in table) rose 2.9% while the Japanese Nikkei closed up 1.8%.

The only falling commodity was silver, which declined 0.5%. Palladium and coffee were the strongest performers among the commodities and overall, rising 4.8% and 4.4% respectively. Platinum tied with gold stocks for third place, gaining 3.4%.

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Weekly Update 29 Nov 2019

Stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies rose, while national currencies and commodities were mixed. The largest gains were in Bitcoin, which added 6.7%, and palladium, which advanced 4.1%. The largest losses were in crude oil, which dropped 4.2%.

The only falling national currency was the Japanese Yen, declining 0.5%. The Chinese Yuan was strongest, rising 0.5%. Although not in the table, even larger gains were to be had in the British Pound, which rose 1.1%. The US and Canadian Dollars gained 0.3% each. Short term bonds tracked cash, adding 0.3%, but long term bonds outperformed, rising 0.7%.

After several weeks of losses, Bitcoin and Ethereum both worked their way higher this week. Bitcoin gained 6.7% (the largest gain in the table) while Ethereum added 3.7%.

Among equities, the HUI gold stocks showed the most strength, rising 2.2%. The UK FTSE (not in table) added 1.4% while the S&P 500 rose 1.3%. The Japanese Nikkei was weakest, gaining just 0.3%.

Outside of Bitcoin, the main price action was in commodities. Crude oil fell 4.2%, the largest loss for the week. Silver and platinum also declined, giving up 0.9% and 0.5% respectively. However palladium rose 4.1%, and coffee gained 3.2%.

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Weekly Update 22 Nov 2019

Cryptocurrencies declined again, bonds and commodities moved higher, and national currencies and equities were mixed. The largest gains were in coffee and palladium, which rose 9.1% and 2.5% respectively. The largest losses were in Ethereum, which fell 16.6%, and Bitcoin, which dropped 13.9%.

National currencies were little changed this week. The Chinese Yuan and Canadian Dollar fell 0.3%, but the British Pound and Swiss Franc (not in table) dropped 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. The US Dollar and Japanese Yen each gained 0.2%. The Euro was unchanged. Short term bonds tracked the US Dollar, rising 0.2%, but long term bonds continued to outperform, adding 1.7%.

Cryptocurrencies were hammered again by new rumors of a Chinese crackdown on exchanges. Ethereum fell 16.6% to 3.19 grams, its lowest level since March. Bitcoin was also hurt, falling 13.9%. Some smaller coins were hit even harder; for instance, DASH (not in table) dropped 18.4% to 1.18 grams, a level not seen since March of 2017.

Major stock markets were slightly lower, but gold stocks closed up 0.5%. The Japanese Nikkei declined 0.6%, while the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 were off 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.

The largest gains were all in commodities, headlined by coffee, which soared 9.1%. Precious metals also did well, as palladium rose 2.5% and platinum gained 2.2%. Silver was a winner too, rising 2.0%.

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Weekly Update 15 Nov 2019: New Dow High?

Cryptocurrencies declined, stocks and bonds moved higher, and currencies and national commodities were mixed. The largest gains were in gold stocks and long term bonds, which rose 2.4% and 1.9% respectively. The largest losses were in Bitcoin, which fell 3.7%, and coffee, which declined 3.2%.

National currencies were led by the British Pound and Swiss Franc (not shown in table), which gained 0.67% and 0.56% respectively. The largest losses were in the US and Canadian Dollars, which fell 0.2% each. Bonds did better than USD cash, as short term bonds were unchanged and long term bonds rose 1.9%.

Cryptocurrencies had a rough week. Bitcoin started out strong, rising to a high of 192.4 grams on Sunday, then sank as the week went on, finishing at 180.1 grams, down 3.7%. Ethereum and DASH (not in table) followed a similar course, although they held onto their highs until Wednesday before declining to finish down 2.2% and 2.4% respectively.

The big headlines this week covered the Dow Industrials breaking the 28,000 barrier for the first time. This hoopla was a non-event in the Priced in Gold world, however. Measured in gold grams, the Dow had a good week, rising 1.0%, but is down 5.6% from one year ago, down 15% from its 2018 high, and is 57% below its 1999 all-time high. Gold stocks performed much better, adding 2.4%, and now sit 18.5% higher than they did one year ago. The Japanese Nikkei was the weakest major stock index, declining 0.2%.

Commodities were mixed, but mostly lower, led by coffee, off 3.2%, and palladium, down 2.6%. The strongest commodity was crude oil, which gained 0.6%. Silver also rose, adding 0.2%.

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Weekly Update 8 Nov 2019

National currencies moved higher, but all other asset classes were mixed. The largest gains were in coffee and crude oil, which rose 8.4% and 5.0% respectively. The largest losses were in silver, which fell 4.4%, and gold stocks, which declined 3.7%.

The Chinese Yuan (up 3.8%) was the strongest national currency, followed by the US Dollar, which gained 3.0%. The Euro was weakest, adding 1.7%. Short term bonds tracked USD cash, rising 3.0%, but long term bonds fell 0.9%.

The moves in cryptocurrencies were relatively mild. Bitcoin declined 2.0%, and Ethereum rose 3.2%.

Major stock indexes all advanced, except for the HUI gold stocks, which retreated 3.7%, the second largest drop of any asset in the table. The Japanese Nikkei and the Dow Jones Industrials were the equity winners, gaining 4.5% and 4.3% respectively.

Silver plunged 4.4%, the week's largest loss. Platinum also retreated, falling 2.1%. But the week's number one and two gains were also in commodities, as coffee surged 8.4% and crude oil climbed 5.0% to close at 1.22 grams per barrel.

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Weekly Update 1 Nov 2019

Stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies were higher, while national currencies and commodities were mixed. The largest gains were in Bitcoin and coffee, which rose 7.3% and 4.9% respectively. Gold stocks were another standout, rising 2.6%. The largest losses were in cotton, which declined 0.7%. The US Dollar gained 0.3%.

National currencies were mixed, but mostly higher this week. The largest gains were in the British Pound and Swiss Franc (not in table) which rose 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. The largest currency gain in the table was the Euro, up 1.0%. The largest loss was in the Canadian Dollar, off 0.3%. Bonds moved higher, as USD cash and short term SHY added 0.3% each while the long term TLT rose 1.8%.

Cryptocurrencies had a good week, as Bitcoin rose to a high of 197.2 grams on Tuesday before pulling back to close at 190.9 grams, up 7.3%. Other cryptos also did well, but few could keep pace with Bitcoin. Ethereum, for instance, gained 1.7%

Gold stocks led the other equities, rising 2.6%, but all the major indexes had a good week. The Dow Industrials and S&P 500 rose 1.8% each. The Nikkei 225 lagged the field, adding 0.9%.

Commodities had the largest declines for the week, but even they weren't too bad. Cotton fell 0.7%, and crude oil and copper declined 0.5% each. On the upside, coffee gained 4.9% and palladium rose 1.6%. Silver was up 0.3%.

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Weekly Update 25 Oct 2019

National currencies and bonds were lower, cryptocurrencies were higher, and equities and commodities were mixed. The largest gains were in Bitcoin and crude oil, which rose 6.9% and 3.7% respectively. The largest losses were in long term bonds, which declined 2.3%. The US Dollar was 1.5% lower.

National currencies were all lower, with the Swiss Franc (not in table) taking the largest hit, falling 2.2%. Tied for second worst were the Euro and the British Pound Sterling (not in table) which each declined 2.0%. The Chinese Yuan showed relative strength, dropping only 0.8%. USD cash fell 1.5%, but its bonds did worse, as the short term SHY declined 1.6% and the long term TLT dropped 2.3%.

Cryptocurrencies had a good week, as Bitcoin rose 6.9% and Ethereum gained 2.9%. Many of the smaller cryptos also did well; DASH, for example, advanced 1.6%.

Equities were mixed, with the Japanese Nikkei rising 1.4% while the Euro STOXX fell 1.1%. Even US indexes were mixed, as the DOW Industrials rose 0.3% and the S&P 500 declined 0.4%. But the British FTSE (not in table) made the largest gains of all, rising 2.4%.

Crude oil and platinum dominated the commodity action, gaining 3.7% and 3.5% respectively. Cotton had the largest loss, dropping 1.9%. Silver rose 2.3% while copper was little changed, off 0.1%.

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Weekly Update 18 Oct 2019

Bonds and cryptocurrencies were lower, but other asset classes were mixed. The largest gains were in the Nikkei 225 index and palladium, which rose 3.2% and 3.0% respectively. The largest losses were in Ethereum, which declined 5.6%. The USD was 0.7% lower.

The Chinese Yuan was the strongest national currency, rising 1.0%; the British Pound (not in the table) also rose 1.0%. Also rising were the Euro (up 0.2%) and the Swiss Franc (not in table) which gained 0.5%. The weakest currencies were the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen, each of which fell 0.7%. Short term bonds tracked the USD, falling 0.7%, but long term bonds fared worse, dropping 1.3%.

Cryptocurrencies had a rough week, as Bitcoin declined 4.9% and Ethereum fell 5.6%, the largest drops of any assets this week. Despite many positive developments in the crypto space "under the hood", I expect this weakness to continue into the end of the year before taking off as the Bitcoin "halving" in May, 2020 approaches. Take advantage of these low prices to accumulate cryptos.

The Japanese Nikkei surged 3.2% this week, the largest gain for an equity index, and largest gain overall. Gold stocks also had a good week, rising 1.3%. The Dow Jones Industrials fell 0.9%, the largest drop in our table… but the UK FTSE index (not in table) declined even more, giving up 1.3%.

Palladium rose 3.0% making it the strongest commodity, and second strongest asset over all. Crude oil declined 2.4%, falling more than any other asset outside of the cryptos. Silver fell 1.7% and platinum declined 1.0%.

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Weekly Update 11 Oct 2019

Most assets moved higher, but each class (except cryptocurrencies) had a loser. The largest price swings were in commodities, as crude oil and cotton gained 5.0% and coffee fell 4.1%.

National currencies had only one decliner, the Japanese Yen, which closed off 0.2%. Although not in the table, the strongest currency I follow was the British Pound Sterling, which soared 4.6%. The Canadian Dollar came in second, rising 2.3%. USD cash was much stronger than it's bonds, rising 1.4% while the short term SHY added 1.0% and the long term TLT fell 2.5%.

Cryptocurrencies had a fairly quiet week, moving gradually higher. Ethereum rose to 4.0 grams on Wednesday and Thursday, then finished at 3.8 grams, for a gain of 4.5%, and Bitcoin peaked at 178.7 grams on Thursday, then pulled back to close the week at 175.0 grams, up 2.8%.

The only falling equity asset was the HUI gold stock index, down 2.1%. The Euro STOXX gained 4.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrials rose 2.3%.

Crude oil and cotton rose 5.0% each, the largest gains of any assets this week. Copper also did well, adding 4.0%. The only falling commodity was coffee, which dropped 4.1%, the largest loss of any asset. Silver gained 1.3%, closing at 370 mg/oz.

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