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Most markets moved higher this week, led by Bitcoin and the Nikkei stocks. The exceptions were silver, coffee, and especially gold stocks, which fell more than any other investment class.

Currencies all rose, led by Bitcoin, up 10.9%, and the Japanese Yen, which gained 3.6%. The USD rose 1.7% to 23.8 mg, putting it 52.3% above its half-life curve. The CAD was the laggard, gaining back the 1.6% it lost in the prior week. Bitcoin trading was a bit more active, with an average 67 kg worth of BTC changing hands each day – about double the daily volume for the previous week.

Bonds were up, with the short term SHY gaining 1.7%, in sync with the underlying USD, while the long term TLT was almost unchanged, adding 0.4% to close at 2.53 g. TLT continues to dither about, staying right at its support and resistance levels. A break one way or the other should be coming soon.

Long Term Treasuries

Most stocks were higher, led by the Nikkei, up 6.1%, more than making up for last week's drop. The S&P 500 added 2.7%, exactly reversing last week's fall. The HUI Gold Bugs Index was the only equity class to lose ground, declining 6.7% to close at 5.58 g. This leaves the crystal ball quite cloudy for the gold stocks until they break out above 6.25 g or fall below 5.2 g. If we do get an extended period of sideways trading it could be an opportunity to acquire some longer dated call options at reasonable prices, and if we get a breakdown below 5.2 g heading for a retest of the old low at 4.2 g, check out the possibility of selling some puts on high quality miners you'd like to own.

Silver

Commodities were mostly higher, with the exception of coffee and silver. Silver closed the week down 1.2% at 0.462 g/oz, the lowest price seen since 25-Aug-2010, and approaching support at 0.45 g. Coffee fell 1.7%, and is now 16.4% above its all-time low set last December. Crude oil and copper showed the most strength, gaining 3.8% and 3.7% respectively. Note that 2.4 g has been a critical level for crude oil for years, acting as support in 2007, and resistance many times from 2009 through 2011. In june, crude broke out above 2.4 g and reached 2.65 g in early July. This week, crude retested the 2.4 level as support, and bounced smartly off of it to close at 2.54 g. Platinum recouped the 2.2% it lost in the prior week to close at 34.1 g/oz, now 9.7% above gold parity.

Table of prices in gold for week ending 2-Aug-2013

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Most markets were sharply lower this week; the exceptions were bitcoin, gold stocks, and silver. Most significant was the rise in the HUI gold stock index, which climbed all the way to 6.1 g before closing at 6.0 g, 15% above its recent low.

The government-issued currencies were all weaker, led by the USD, which declined another 2.6% to 23.4 mg, leaving it 49.4% above its half-life curve. The CAD and EUR were the least weak, losing 1.6% and 1.8% respectively. Bitcoin stabilized this week, climbing 2.1% to close at 2.25 g. Trading was very quiet, with only 30 kg worth of BTC changing hands – a far cry from the 535 kg we saw during the Cyprus banking crisis last April.

Bonds were lower, with the short term SHY losing 2.6%, in sync with the underlying USD, while the long term TLT fell 3.6% to close at 2.53 g, just below support at 2.55 g. This is a crucial point for TLT, as it sits both at a long-term support/resistance level, and at the bottom of its upward trending channel.

Long Term Treasuries

Most stocks declined again, with the Nikkei down 5.5% and the S&P 500 off 2.7%. The HUI Gold Bugs Index was the only equity advancer, adding another 3.6% to close at 5.98 g. This extends the rally to resistance between 6 and 6.25. If the HUI can clear this hurdle, the next stop is long term resistance at 6.8.

HUI Gold Stocks Chart

Silver was the only commodity that didn't fall this week, adding 0.4% to close at 0.47 g/oz, little changed. Crude oil led the decliners, falling 5.7%, followed by cotton and copper, each down 3.9%. Platinum dropped 2.2% to close at 33.4 g/oz, now 7.3% above gold parity.

Table of prices in gold for week ending 26-Jul-2013

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Markets were mixed this week, with currencies lower and commodities mostly higher. Two things stand out: Gold stocks, which may be making a bottom, and silver, which continued falling to a new low for this move.

Currencies were all weaker, led by Bitcoin, which dropped 6.0% to 2.2 g. For most currencies, this would be a huge move, but for the highly volatile BTC, it was a pretty quiet week, with a trading volume of only 65 kg. The Japanese Yen was the weakest government-issued currency, losing 2.3%, while the Euro was the least weak, declining 1%. The USD declined another 1.2% to 24 mg, leaving it 52.9% above its half-life curve.

Bonds were mixed, with the short term SHY losing 1.1%, slightly better than the underlying USD, while the long term TLT was almost unchanged, adding 0.1%. At 2.62 g, it continues to sit jut above support at 2.55 g.

Most stocks declined, with the Nikkei down 1.7% and the S&P 500 off 0.5%. The HUI Gold Bugs Index was the only equity advancer, adding 5.5% to close at 5.77 g. This puts in place a "higher low", as you can see on the chart below. The big question now is, do we have a bottom, or is this just a little bear market rally?

HUI Gold Stocks Chart

Commodities were mostly higher, but silver and copper bucked the trend, losing 2.4% and 1.5% respectively. Coffee, up 1.6%, and crude oil, up 0.7%, were the strongest in the commodity group.

The drop in copper isn't much of a concern, as the metal has been zig-zagging its way higher over the last few months, making higher highs and higher lows, and this week's action fits nicely with that pattern. Silver, on the other hand, broke down to close at  0.466 g/oz, a new low for this move. Support for silver might be found around 0.46, a level that has been crucial many times since the mid-1990s. But so far, there are no signs of bottoming action.

Silver Chart

Table of prices in gold for week ending 19-Jul-2013

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Markets were lower this week, with the exception of Bitcoin, which recovered all of last week's loss,  and platinum, which was almost unchanged.

Bitcoin gained 28.5% to close at 2.34 g., erasing last week's big decline. Trading volume continued to rise, averaging about 108 kg per day. Expect extreme volatility to continue, but with an upward bias over the long term. Bitcoin still represents a unique value proposition, offering, like precious metals, an asset that is not anyone's liability… but with the ease of instantaneous transmission over the internet coupled with a cash-like level of privacy. As monetary disaster continue to unfold in Europe, Japan and the US, expect to see growing interest in Bitcoin.

Once again, the government currencies were all weaker, led by the USD, which declined 5.2% to 24.3 mg, now 54.3% above its half-life curve. Have we seen the top? Perhaps not, but by every measure, the USD is vastly overvalued, and I urge you to take advantage of this by acquiring real assets at bargain basement prices.

USD actual vs half-life prediction

Bonds were also lower, with the short term SHY losing 5.2%, mirroring the USD, while the long term TLT fell 3.9% to close at 2.62 g, leaving it back where it was on Jun 25th, approaching support at 2.55 g.

Stocks declined, with the Dow and Nikkei down 3.2% and the S&P 500 off 2.4%. The HUI Gold Bugs Index lost 1.2% to close at 5.47 g, putting it in third place for the week, behind BTC and platinum. In spite of this relative outperformance, the HUI remains very close to its lows for this move, and is still in a well established bear market with little support above the old all-time low at 4.2 g.

Commodities were mostly lower, with platinum, which rose 0.2%, the only gainer. Coffee led the decliners, dropping 6.6% to close at 29 mg/lb. Crude oil gave back about half of last week's gain, closing at 2.58 g/bbl, down 2.7%.

Table of prices in gold for week ending 12-Jul-2013

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After last week's monster surge higher, most asset classes took a breather and pulled back a bit this week. The exceptions were bitcoin, which suffered a stunning drop, gold stocks, which gave up almost all of last week's gains, and crude oil, which continued to power higher this week.

After losing 5.5% last week, Bitcoin dropped a further 27.8% to close at 1.82 g. Trading volume picked up significantly, averaging about 100 kg per day. This is a big price drop, no doubt, but keep in mind that BTC could fall all the way to 0.5 g without violating its long term exponential uptrend.

Bitcoin priced in gold

The government currencies were all weaker, led by the JPY which fell 3.9%. The USD was least weak, falling 1.7% to 25.6 mg, now 62.3% above its half-life curve. I continue to see this price action as a blow-off top, and urge you to take advantage of it if possible! See last week's market update for suggestions on how to invest now.

USD actual vs half-life prediction

Bonds were lower, with the short term SHY losing 1.7%, mirroring the USD, while the long term TLT fell 5.2% to close at 2.88 g, giving up about half of last week's gains.

Stocks were little changed from last week, with the Dow and S&P 500 off 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, while the Nikkei gained 0.6%. The exception was the HUI Gold Bugs Index, which finished the week at 5.5 g, down 7%, giving up almost all of last week's 7.4% gain.

Commodities were mixed, led by crude oil, once again the strongest asset class of the week, which gained 5.1% to close at 2.65 g/barrel. Silver was also higher, gaining 0.7% to 0.496 g/oz. The others were all lower, led by copper which lost 1.4% and platinum, which fell 1%.

Table of prices in gold for week ending 5-Jul-2013

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Bitcoin was the only falling asset this week, as the US Dollar surged against gold and other currencies, pulling most other assets up with it. Crude oil was especially strong.

Bitcoin gave back about a third of last week's gain, falling 5.5% to close at 2.53 g. Trading volume was slightly higher than last week, averaging about 78 kg per day.

Among the government currencies, the USD was by far the strongest, rising 8.7% to 26.1 mg, while the Euro was weakest, gaining "only" 5.9%. I think we are nearing a blow-off top here, as the USD has gone parabolic over the last few months. You can see this in the chart below. Can it go even higher? Certainly! Have its fundamentals improved in any material way? Absolutely not!

USD actual vs half-life prediction

The safest place for your money right now is in physical precious metals, especially gold and platinum. This will help you keep your powder dry for the time when silver, gold stocks, and other undervalued investments have formed their bottoms. You may be taking a "pass" on speculative gains in currencies, bonds, and stocks, but you are doing so to get the security of real assets that are free of systemic and counter-party risk. 

Bonds were higher, with the short term SHY gaining 8.7%, mirroring the strong dollar, while the long term TLT jumped 10.7% to close at 2.88 g. This puts TLT near the top of its trading channel, limiting the likely upside from here.

Stocks all rose smartly, even the beleagured HUI Gold Bugs Index, which set a new low of 5.2 g on Wednesday before snapping back to close at 5.95 g, up 7.4%. The Nikkei, the Dow Jones Industrials, and the S&P 500 each rose about 9.6%

Commodities were all higher, led by crude oil, the strongest asset class for the week, which gained 12% to close at 2.52 g/barrel, pushing past resistance at 2.4 g. The weakest commodity was Silver, which set a new low for this move of 0.470 g on Wednesday and Thursday before recovering to close at 0.492, up 3.1%.

This week's extreme readings came in part because the London PM fix on Friday, the official price I use for all my charts, occurred at the extreme low for the day; if I had used the NY close instead, all prices shown would have been about 3.5% lower, putting silver into a loss for the week, and significantly moderating all the other gains.

Table of prices in gold for week ending 28-Jun-2013

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Markets were mainly higher this week, with gold stocks and silver the only exceptions.

Bitcoin more than made up for last week's losses, gaining 18.8% to close at 2.67 g. Trading volume was light this week, averaging only 73 kg per day.

Although all the government currencies were strong this week, the Japanese Yen and the USD traded places, with the JPY up "only" 4.5% while the USD led the pack rising 7.4% and ending the week a stunning 51% above it's half-life curve. If you haven't yet taken advantage of the dollar's extreme overvaluation, please consider how best to benefit from it. For now, I recommend physical precious metals, especially gold and platinum. This will help you keep your powder dry for the time when silver, gold stocks, and other undervalued investments have formed their bottoms.

Bonds were higher, but this week the short term SHY gained 7.2%, mirroring the strong dollar, while the long term TLT lagged, gaining 2.3% to close at 2.6 g. Technically, TLT continues to trade back and forth above and below its support/resistance at 2.55 g, and could break either way. But the Fed's comments on the future "tapering" of QE are certainly weighing heavily on the price of long term bonds, as they mean that interest rates will be rising, which in turn means that the market value of TLT's bond portfolio will be falling. If the value of the dollars in which those bonds are redeemable falls as well, we could see a crash of biblical proportions. Although bonds may continue higher from here, the risks of holding them far outweighs any likely upside.

Stocks, other than the HUI Gold Bugs Index, rose strongly, led by the Nikkei which gained 9% to close at 3.26 g. US equities rose less than USD cash, but still managed a respectable 5.5% gain for the Dow Jones Industrials, and 5.1% advance for the S&P 500. I am very cautious about US stocks, as they may be following the pattern of the last half of the 1970s, where they experienced a strong bear market rally before falling to new lows. 

Gold stocks fell hard, losing 5.1% to close the week at 5.54 g after trading at 5.49 g on Thursday. This leaves only a little technical support around 5 g between here and the old low at about 4.2 g.

HUI Gold Stocks prices since 2010

Commodities were mostly up this week, led by coffee and copper which rose 4.3% and 4.1% respectively. Crude oil gained again this week, adding 2.8% to close at 2.25 g/barrel, approaching resistance at 2.4 g. The only loser was Silver, which continued last week's plunge, falling 1.6% to a new low for this move of 0.477 g. Technically, silver may find some support between 0.43 and 0.45 g, or at its 2008 low of 0.368 g.

Table of prices in gold for week ending 21-Jun-2013

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Markets were mixed this week, with currencies mostly stronger and stocks and commodities mostly lower. Cotton continued to lead the way higher, while the biggest decliner was once again Bitcoin.

Bitcoin dropped a further 10.5% to close at 2.25 g. Trading volume continues to grow, now averaging 108 kg per day.  Expect more volatility – up and down – as volume increases.

The Japanese Yen once again led the currencies higher, rising 3.8%. The Euro was again in second place, gaining 1.1%  to close at 29.8 mg. The USD was the only government issued currency to lose value, dropping 0.4% and ending the week 40.1% above it's half-life curve.

Bonds were mixed again, but this week the short term SHY fell 0.3% along with the dollar, while the long term TLT gained 0.2% to close at 2.54 g. TLT continues to straddle support/resistance at 2.55 g, and could break either way.

Stocks were mainly lower, led by the HUI Gold Bugs Index, which dropped 3.4% to 5.84 g, well below the critical 6 g level. US stocks also declined 1.5%, giving up their gains from last week. The Nikkei was the only rising index this week, breaking its losing streak, and gaining 2.2% to close at 2.99 g. 

Commodities were mostly down this week. The exceptions were Cotton, up 7.2%, and Crude Oil, up 1.5%. Silver and Platinum were the biggest losers, down 4.4% and 4.2% respectively.  This puts silver at 0.485 g/oz, a new low for this move down.

Silver prices since 2006

Table of prices in gold for week ending 14-Jun-2013

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Markets were mostly higher this week, led by the commodities. Cotton and crude oil advanced the most, while Bitcoin showed the greatest weakness.

Bitcoin dropped 12% to close at 2.5 g. Trading volume is beginning to grow again, averaging almost 100 kg per day.  Expect more volatility as volume increases.

All of the government issued currencies were higher this week, led once again by the Japanese Yen, which rose 3%. The Euro was in second place, rising 1.8%  to close at 29.5 mg. The USD was the least strong, adding 0.6% to close at 22.4 mg, leaving it a lofty 40.2% above it's half-life curve.

Bonds were mixed, with short term SHY rising 0.6% along with the dollar, while the long term TLT fell 0.3% to close at 2.54 g. TLT continues to straddle support/resistance at 2.55 g, and could break either way.

Stocks were also mixed, with US stocks about 1.5% higher while the Nikkei fell for the third consecutive week, giving up 3.7% to close at 2.93 g. The HUI Gold Bugs Index was also lower, dropping 1.3% and ending the week at 6.05 g, barely above the critical 6 g level.

Commodities were strong this week, with Cotton, up 7.6%, and Crude Oil, up 5.1%, leading the way. Platinum also advanced, rising 3.9% to end the week at 33.8 g, 8.6% above parity with gold. Coffee and copper each gained 0.5%, while silver rose 0.7% to finish at 0.507 g/oz.

Table of prices in gold for week ending 7-Jun-2013

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The markets were mixed this week, with most asset classes lower. The biggest exception was gold stocks, which continued their advance for a second week.

Bitcoin gave back some of last week's gain, dropping 1.6% to close just below 2.9 g. Trading volume continued very light throughout the week, but picked up over the weekend. Although prices have been fairly stable for the last few weeks, you should expect more volatility as volume increases.

The Japanese Yen was the strongest of all the currencies, gaining 0.9%, with the Euro in second place, rising 0.5%  to close at 29 mg. The USD was lower by 0.3% to 22.3 mg, leaving it 38.9% above it's half-life curve – unchanged from last week.

Bonds were lower, with short term SHY dropping 0.4%, while the long term TLT fell 2.3% to close at 2.55 g. TLT is now sitting right on support/resistance at 2.55 g after touching 2.53 on Thursday. This level has been pivotal many times over the last 5 years. Stay tuned for more exciting bond action!

TLT in gold

Stocks were mostly lower, led by the Nikkei, which lost 4.9% for the second straight week to close at 3.04 g. The HUI Gold Bugs Index was the only rising equity class again this week, gaining 7.9% to close at 6.12 g – its best showing in the last 5 weeks. Like long bonds, the HUI sits at a crucial level. It will be interesting to see whether gold stocks can continue to rally, or if they will resume dropping towards their old lows.

HUI in gold

Commodities were mixed this week, with Silver climbing 0.5% and Platinum unchanged, while the rest declined. Cotton, down 2.9%, and Crude Oil, down 2.6%, led the decliners.

Table of prices in gold for week ending 31-May-2013