S&P 500

May 5, 2013

Market Update 3 May 2013: Long Bonds at Critical Support

This week the markets shifted back into forward gear, with all assets except Bitcoin and the 20 year Treasury Bond advancing. Coffee and copper were especially strong.

Bitcoin started the week in an uptrend; trading at over 3 g on Monday, it declined through the week to close at 1.93 g, down 31%. Since early April, the BTC has made a series of lower highs and higher lows; over the next few weeks the market should make up its mind about whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued at these levels. Keep in mind that it could drop by 75% and still be in an exponential uptrend. Expect continued volatility!

More on Market Update 3 May 2013: Long Bonds at Critical Support

Filed under Bitcoin, Bonds, Coffee, Commodities, Platinum, S&P 500, Silver, Stocks by editor

Facebook Google+ Twitter Pinterest

Email Print

April 21, 2013

Market Update 19 Apr 2013: Massive Currency Rally

Another "mostly higher" week, led by a massive rally in all currencies. The only asset classes that fell for the week were silver bullion and gold stocks.

Bitcoin had another volatile week, but in the end recovered strongly from last week's "crash", leading all other asset classes by rising 52.5% to finish at 2,643 mg. It's not over yet, folks: expect more wild price action as newcomers work through the process of price discovery in a thinly traded market. For comparison, the London market trades about 640 tonnes of gold per day. Last week, Mt. Gox trading between bitcoins and USD had a daily average volume of 0.5 tonnes. In fact, the entire world supply of bitcoins currently has a value of about 30 tonnes, less than 5% of the gold traded each day in London.

More on Market Update 19 Apr 2013: Massive Currency Rally

Filed under Bitcoin, Bonds, Coffee, Commodities, Dow Jones Industrials, Platinum, S&P 500, Silver, Stocks, US Dollar by editor

Facebook Google+ Twitter Pinterest

Email Print

April 14, 2013

Market Update 12 Apr 2013: Bitcoin, Gold Stocks "Crash"

All asset classes but Bitcoin, coffee, JPY, and mining stocks were higher this week.

Bitcoin ended a wild week down 38.7% at 1693 mg, after trading has high as 5,253 mg and as low as 1,099 mg. Friday had the largest volume ever traded for Bitcoin, over 964 kg. As I forecast last week, this kind of price action is to be expected in such a thin market as new buyers enter in quantity. Over the weekend, BTC has recovered to 2,051 mg. Keep in mind that BTC could fall to 500 mg or so and still be in an exponential uptrend! Expect further volatility.

More on Market Update 12 Apr 2013: Bitcoin, Gold Stocks "Crash"

Filed under Bitcoin, Bonds, Coffee, Commodities, Dow Jones Industrials, EUR, Euro, Platinum, S&P 500, Silver, Stocks, US Dollar by editor

Facebook Google+ Twitter Pinterest

Email Print

March 25, 2013

Market Update 22 Mar 2013: Europe scrambles for bitcoins

All but three asset classes were lower this week, the gainers being Bitcoin, gold stocks, and long dated treasuries.

Bitcoin ended the week up 51.8% at 1,392 mg, after setting another record high every day this week. The latest round of panic buying seems to have been triggered by the partial bank account confiscation plan announced in Cyprus. The realization that their money is no longer safe in banks has spooked investors across Europe, but especially in Spain, where downloads of Bitcoin software have skyrocketed. Because Bitcoin has such a small market cap, currently about 15,800 kg, and trades less than 200 kg each day, it doesn't take much money moving in (or out) to swing the price, so we should expect continued volatility in the near future.

More on Market Update 22 Mar 2013: Europe scrambles for bitcoins

Filed under Banking, Bitcoin, Bonds, Coffee, Commodities, Cotton, Dow Jones Industrials, EUR, Euro, Platinum, S&P 500, Silver, Stocks, US Dollar by editor

Facebook Google+ Twitter Pinterest

Email Print

March 17, 2013

Market Update 15 Mar 2013: Bitcoin Hiccup

Most assets were lower this week, with the major exceptions being Bitcoin, the free market online currency, and Cotton.

Bitcoin ended the week up 8% at 917 mg, after recording another all-time high of 938 mg on Monday. Things got exciting the next day, as high transaction volumes caused two different versions of the Bitcoin mining software to update the distributed ledger (known as the "block chain") differently. This split, or "fork in the block chain", was deftly handled by the developer group, but it caused a dip in the price which has now been mostly erased. If you are interested in more technical details, you read about them here. This should serve as a reminder that Bitcoin is a young currency, and still vulnerable to failures of technical, social, or political origin. Keep position sizes small enough that you won't be badly hurt if one them turns out to be fatal, but keep in mind that there is still tremendous upside if this experiment in free market money succeeds.

More on Market Update 15 Mar 2013: Bitcoin Hiccup

Filed under Bitcoin, Bonds, Coffee, Commodities, Cotton, Dow Jones Industrials, EUR, Euro, Platinum, S&P 500, Silver, Stocks, US Dollar by editor

Facebook Google+ Twitter Pinterest

Email Print

March 11, 2013

Market Update 8 Mar 2013

It was another mixed week, with government currencies and long bonds lower, while stocks and commodities moved higher. Bitcoin, the free market online currency, ended the week up 26% at 849 mg, after recording another all-time high of 893 mg on Wednesday. If you have a time-horizon of a few years, don't let these prices scare you away… Bitcoin has plenty of upside, though it's volatility will be huge. My strategy is to keep position size small, but add a little every week.

Market Update 15 Feb 2013

In a week when most assets turned in excellent performances, bitcoin once again outshone all others. The only things that lost ground this week were mining stocks and silver.

Currencies were all higher, led by bitcoin, which added an astounding 24.6% to close at 520.7 mg, within spitting distance of its all-time high of 598 mg. In fact, in all of bitcoin's history, there are only 3 days on which it was traded at higher levels.

Market Update 8 Feb 2013 – Bitcoin Rise Continues

Bitcoin continued to rocket upward this week, with long term treasuries a distant second place. Coffee and the Nikkei Index were the biggest losers.

Government issued currencies were mixed, with the Yen down 2.6% and the Euro down 0.5%, while the Canadian Dollar rose 0.5% and the US Dollar was unchanged. In contrast, the free market currency, Bitcoin, gained 8.2% to close at 418 mg. The BTC is up 62% in the last month.

More on Market Update 8 Feb 2013 – Bitcoin Rise Continues

Filed under Bitcoin, Bonds, Coffee, Commodities, Dow Jones Industrials, EUR, Euro, S&P 500, Silver, Stocks, US Dollar by editor

Facebook Google+ Twitter Pinterest

Email Print

January 20, 2013

Market Update 18 Jan 2013

Stocks, bonds, and currencies (other than Bitcoin) were weaker this week, while commodities, with the exception of copper, were higher.

Among the government issued currencies, the Japanese Yen was weakest, falling 2.8%, while the Euro was the "least weak", declining only 0.3%. The US Dollar ended 2012 right at its 200 day moving-average, pushed above it in early January – reaching 18.9 mg on Jan 7th, 10.1% above the half-life predicted value – and has since retreated, ending this week at 18.4 mg, down 1.2%, and sitting 7.8% above the half-life curve forecast.

Market Update 7 Dec 2012 – Silver Down, Bitcoin Up

Most assets were higher again this week, with bitcoin leading the way. Silver, gold stocks and crude oil were the only exceptions.

Currencies were all higher, but bitcoin was in a league of its own, rising 7.8% to 244 mg. The Euro was in second place, gaining 2% to close at 23.8 mg. The weakest of the bunch was the Japanese Yen, which still rose a respectable 1.1%.

More on Market Update 7 Dec 2012 – Silver Down, Bitcoin Up

Filed under Bitcoin, Bonds, Commodities, EUR, Euro, Platinum, S&P 500, Silver, Stocks, US Dollar by editor