monetary universe

Yesterday the NY Times ran an article headlined, "Average U.S. Income Showed First Rise Over 2000".

The big claim is that after peaking in 2000, incomes fell, bottoming in 2003, and have now climbed back to make new highs in 2006.

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Recently I was in Vancouver, BC for the Agora Financial Symposium, which carried the tagline "A View from the Peak". There were many peaks discussed and analyzed: oil, food, water and debt, to name a few. The price of gold and silver got a lot of discussion, and forecasts abounded. Discussions and opinions were not limited to the speakers, of course – the hallways, restaurants and sidewalks were filled with animated discourse, colorful scenarios and useful information. As you can guess, I loved every minute of it!

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The first part of this interview covered Paul van Eeden's background and laid out his views on gold, inflation and interest rates. In this final segment, we'll discuss what to do about this situation – how to translate this view of the world into investment action.

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Last year, in July of 2007, I attended the Agora Financial investment Symposium in Vancouver, BC. There were a lot of excellent speakers and sessions covering all aspects of investment, with quite a bit of emphasis on natural resources and a strong international flavor. One of the speakers who impressed me the most was Paul van Edeen. On my return home I subscribed to his newsletter – which has since become one of my favorites.

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I recently came across a presentation made on May 20th to the US Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs by Dr. Benn Steil, a Senior Fellow and Director of International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, entitled "Financial Speculation in Commodity Markets" (pdf). Dr. Steil also gave a speech the week before at the New York Hard Assets Investment Conference entitled "Is the Dollar Doomed?" (text and audio).

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I've updated many charts to 4-April-2008, and added the Euro to the CAD vs. USD chart. It is worth noting that although the USD has fallen against the EUR and CAD, all three currencies have been losing value. They are just losing at different rates.

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Ever wonder how a stock or an index like the Dow Jones Industrials is doing at the moment, priced in gold? Is it up or down from yesterday? How much?

To do this the "old school" way, you would collect four numbers: the price of gold and the price of the security at the previous trading day's close, and their current prices, all in the same currency. Calculate the previous closing price of the currency unit (USD, GBP, JPY, EUR, etc.) by dividing 31.1035 by the gold price, giving the value of the currency unit in gold grams. Do the same with the current price of gold. Then multiply the prior closing price of the security by the prior closing value of the currency to get the previous gold price of the security. Multiply the current price of the security by the current value of the currency to get the current gold price of the security. Now subtract the security's prior close from its current price to get the gain or loss in gold grams. Divide this value by the gold price of the security for the previous day to see the percentage gain or loss.

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You might have noticed that my previous post on Silver and Stocks didn't once mention the US Dollar. Why? Because it's irrelevant. It may go up, it may go down. Most likely down, but so what? I try not to hold any more of it than necessary, unless I have reason to believe it's in an extended uptrend and decide to speculate.

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