Last week was almost a complete reversal from the week before; the only thing in common was the continuing decline in silver and copper.
Currencies were all down strongly, with the EUR leading the decline, falling 3.2%. Bonds also fell; the long term TLT falling the most, down 3.8% while the shorter term SHY moved down 2.6%, roughly in line with the decline of the USD.
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Most of the strength last week was in commodities, with coffee up 4.3% and crude oil up 2.6%. The only other strong gains were in TLT, the long term US treasury ETF, up 1.2%. Stocks and currencies were all down or unchanged for the week. The biggest losers were gold stocks, represented by the HUI, down 5% and the Euro, down 2.6%.
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Last week was excellent for almost all investment categories. Only the long bonds (TLT) showed a loss, taking a breather after an extended series of gains that have left them up 7.4% for the last month and almost 31% over the last 12 months.
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Over at the Gasoline page, FASCINATING posted a comment asking about electric power prices, and having wondered about this myself, I decided to create a chart of US electricity prices in gold.
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This was a good week for investments generally, but a horrible week for the Canadian Dollar, which dropped a stunning 8.5% bringing it back in line with the other currencies for the month, and leaving the Chilean Peso the only currency I'm tracking that is up for the year to date. The other losers were crude oil, down 3.5%, and long term US bonds (TLT) which closed down 0.8% for the week.
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Big gainers for last week were large cap US stocks, copper, and the USD.
Last week's big losers were gold stocks (HUI), silver, long bonds (TLT) and the JPY.
The USD is now 1% above its 200 day moving average, and 14.3% above its all-time low. Still, it's down 5% so far in 2012, and down 15% from one year ago. It is also 4.9% below the price predicted by the half-life decay curve, which currently suggests a value of 19.7mg (equivalent to a gold price of $1577).
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Recently, I have received several emails asking for more details about how to price things in gold. Here is one example:
Greetings Sir Charles,
I've just discovered your blog on prices in gold, and I found it very interesting.
However, now I am curious about how the amount of gold a specific good costs is calculated.
I was just wondering if you could give me a brief explanation to help me to understand.
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I'm getting calls to the Priced in Gold hotline, emails, questions from friends – all asking the same thing: "Have you seen the 2011 Berkshire Hathaway annual report and Warren Buffet's comments about gold?"
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US Bonds were higher this week, recouping last week's losses and more. SHY gained 3.1% in line with USD strength, and TLT gained 6.4% reversing last week's 2.1% loss. Over the longer term, TLT is now up for the year, while SHY is down around 20%. As the crisis in Europe deepens, US Treasuries may make further gains; but keep in mind that these are highly volatile speculations, not a safe place for your savings or a good source of income.
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