Market Update

Big gainers for last week were large cap US stocks, copper, and the USD.

Last week's big losers were gold stocks (HUI), silver, long bonds (TLT) and the JPY.

The USD is now 1% above its 200 day moving average, and 14.3% above its all-time low. Still, it's down 5% so far in 2012, and down 15% from one year ago. It is also 4.9% below the price predicted by the half-life decay curve, which currently suggests a value of 19.7mg (equivalent to a gold price of $1577).

Among the currencies I follow, the strongest are the Canadian Dollar and the Chilean Peso, both of which are up for the year to date (CAD up 4.4% and the CLP up 2.3%). All the rest (USD, EUR, JPY, CHF, AUD, ARS, and BTC) are lower than they were at the end of 2011.

Platinum rose again, closing the week 1.2% above parity with gold and 16.4% above its low on the 9th of January. I believe platinum will eventually return to a significant premium to gold, so at these levels it is still a good buy.

Although TLT is down this week, long term US bonds remain the only major investment category that is up over the last 12 months, and it is still trading above its 200 day moving average. I entered this trade at 2.189 grams, and am currently down 4.5%. I am watching the 200 day moving average carefully to see if it provides support. If not, I'm taking my loss and getting out.

Weekly summary for 16-Mar-2012

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