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This was a mixed week in all asset categories, but much less violent than last week, with the largest gains and losses in the commodities.

From 2011 to 2015, stocks were in a mighty uptrend, with the DJIA rising from 184 grams to a high of 523 grams. In 2016, however, they have broken down through that uptrend line, and have closed below their 36 month moving average in each of the last two months. This is a strong sign that stocks are now entering a prolonged downtrend, and any extended rallies will be selling opportunities. See the full post for details and recommendations.


On May 31st, Dr. Marc Faber, one of my favorite economists and a very engaging speaker, gave a landmark presentation at the Mises Circle on Austrian Economics and Finance. In this talk, Dr. Faber details the coming economic catastrophe, and what to do about it.

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Recently I was in Vancouver, BC for the Agora Financial Symposium, which carried the tagline "A View from the Peak". There were many peaks discussed and analyzed: oil, food, water and debt, to name a few. The price of gold and silver got a lot of discussion, and forecasts abounded. Discussions and opinions were not limited to the speakers, of course – the hallways, restaurants and sidewalks were filled with animated discourse, colorful scenarios and useful information. As you can guess, I loved every minute of it!

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Another fun look at the news, without the distorting effects of the US Dollar. For context, be sure to check out the charts on crude oil and gasoline.

From a March 11, 2008 story in the Associated Press:

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As the likelihood that an official "recession declaration" will be issued for the US economy increases, true prices of many items continue to fall. Gasoline, for example, is now at it's lowest price in about 10 years. Uranium also continues to slump, ending January at 2.63 grams per pound.

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Just a quick note — I still haven't found a good source for gasoline prices before April of 1993 (if you can give me a URL for this data, I would very much appreciate it!) but I did find the peak price for gasoline in California in March of 1981, the price point quoted in the news articles as being the highest "inflation adjusted" price (until now) for US gasoline.

More on More on Gasoline