Markets were mixed this week, with currencies and bonds mostly higher while stocks and commodities were mostly lower. Bitcoin gained more than any other asset class, while silver lost the most ground.

The Canadian Dollar was the only declining currency, down 0.3% to 22.5 mg. The JPY and USD each rose 0.6%, with the dollar closing at 23.2 mg, now 52.7% above its half-life curve. Bitcoin, the free market internet currency, rose 3.8% to close at 3.2 g. Volume was just 28 kg, the lightest in over a year. See below for more comments on Bitcoin pricing.

Bonds moved higher, with the short term SHY rising 0.7%, slightly better than the underlying USD, while the long term TLT added 2.2%. During the week, TLT pushed right up to, but failed to overcome resistance at 2.52g, falling back  to close at 2.47 g.

Stocks were mostly lower, with the Nikkei, up 0.7%, the only gainer. The S&P 500 was down 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrials and the HUI Gold Bugs Index each fell 0.6%.  The Dow settled just below its 355 g support level, but the HUI ended at the lowest level since August 8th, and only 2.6% above it's 22 year low of 5.205 g set three months ago.

Commodities were mixed, with Cotton gaining 3.4% and Copper rising 1.1% while the rest of the complex fell. Silver led the losers, falling 4.4%, while Crude oil was 1.1% lower.  Platinum was down 1.5% to 32.8 g, now 5.6% above gold parity.

Silver gave up all of the prior week's gains and then some, ending at a new low for the month of 0.501 g/oz.

I have received many questions about the my use of Mt. Gox USD prices as the basis of my BTC chart. Because the USD represents about 72% of all BTC trading (with the EUR next at 9% and CNY third at 7%) and because gold is usually quoted in USD, using a USD price for bitcoins makes sense.

Of the exchanges reporting to bitcoincharts.com, 64% of the USD volume goes through Mt Gox, with bitstamp making up 30%, and btc-e handling 6%. So at this point, Mt Gox is still by far the largest single exchange.

Prices on Mt Gox are a bit higher than on the other USD exchanges. This may be due to greater difficulty in getting USD funds out of the Mt Gox system; if moving funds out was fast and easy, a large profit could be had buying BTC on bitstamp and selling them on Mt Gox, which would rapidly push the prices back into line. But speculators using FX trading to increase their BTC holdings, rather than seeking a profit in USD, probably find the tight spreads and higher volumes on Mt Gox make it the best platform for their needs.

Bitcoincharts has no way to track offline person to person transactions, and as these offer a great deal more privacy than the large online exchanges, they may be getting a significant amount of volume that goes unreported.

Even though Mt Gox prices are a bit higher than bitstamp and btc-e, I think that the overall shape of the chart would be little different if I used their prices instead. I will continue to monitor this situation and if Mt Gox marketshare shrinks, or the price gap widens, I may look at rebuilding the chart based on a volume weighted average of all the active exchanges. (If I took that approach today, the closing BTC price would be shown as 3.11 g rather than 3.22 g.)

Currency, bond, and equity markets (other than gold stocks) were lower this week, while commodities were mixed. Crude oil's fall accelerated, while silver rocketed higher. But the most important price action this week was in the collapse of the long bond.

Government-issued currencies were sharply lower, with the Japanese Yen leading the way, falling 5.8%. The USD closed at 22.7 mg, down 4.4%, now 46.6% above its half-life curve. Bitcoin, the free market internet currency, rose 1.6% to close at 2.49 g.

Bonds were sharply lower, with the short term SHY falling 4.5% with the underlying USD, while the long term TLT was crushed, losing 7.9% to close at 2.35 g. This is a decisive breakdown for the long bonds, punching down through long term support, and closing below its 200 day moving average. We may see a retest of the old support around 2.55 to see if it has now become resistance. 

Most stocks were lower, led by the Dow Jones Industrials, which lost 6.5%, while the S&P 500 dropped 6.4%. The HUI Gold Bugs Index was the only equity index in the black, roaring ahead 7.9% to close at 6.2 g after hitting a high of 6.47 g on Thursday. It is looking more and more like the bottom is in on mining stocks, but there is still resistance overhead at 6.8 to 7.0 g.

Commodities were mostly lower, but silver and cotton continued their climbs of the prior week.  Coffee was the weakest in the complex, giving up 6.3%. Crude pulled back 3.1% while copper lost 2.9%.

The biggest commodity winner this week was Silver, which rose 7.5% to 0.519 g/oz, just below resistance at 0.525 g. 

Platinum lost 2.3% to close at 34.6 g/oz, now 11.3% above gold parity.

The markets were mixed this week, with bonds and currencies little changed, stocks generally lower, and commodities mostly higher. The HUI gold stocks moved up with the commodity complex; crude oil was the only commodity to close down for the week.

Currencies were mixed, with the Euro and Japanese Yen gaining 0.8% and 1.7% respectively, while. the Canadian Dollar and Bitcoin fell 0.8% and 1.8%.  Bitcoin trading was very quiet, with an average 29 kg changing hands each day on Mt Gox. 

The USD was unchanged at 23.8 mg, but rose to 52.9% above its half-life curve, as the curve continues to fall every week. The "expected price"  of the USD is now 15.5 mg, which is equivalent to a gold price of $2,001 – up from $1,995 the previous week. At some point, I expect the USD to "revert to the mean", falling rapidly to the 15.5 mg level and probably overshooting considerably to the downside. I recommend taking advantage of the strong USD now to purchase precious metals, select mining stocks, and other real assets – before the mean reversion crash.

Bonds were quiet, with the short term SHY unchanged, in sync with the underlying USD, while the long term TLT added 0.7% to close at 2.55 g. Once again, TLT is staying very near its support and resistance levels.

Most stocks were lower, led by the Nikkei, which retreated 4.3%, giving up much of last week's gain, and making the Nikkei this week's worst performing asset class overall. The Dow Jones Industrials lost 1.5%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1%. The HUI Gold Bugs Index was the only equity index to gain ground, rising 2.3% to close at 5.7 g. Last week's comments on playing the gold stocks still apply; we are waiting for confirmation of the market's next move.

With the exception of crude oil, commodities were all sharply higher.  Crude pulled back 0.9%, pausing for breath after last week's 3.8% surge. Copper just kept on rising, however, adding another 4.5% to last week's 3.7% gain. Over the last few months, copper has been in a rising channel, making a series of higher lows and higher highs, but it remains well below its long term average price of 213 mg.

Silver and cotton were almost as strong, gaining 4.4% each. Silver bounced smartly off its lows to close at 0.483 g/oz, about where it was trading a month ago. Platinum added 3.9% to close at 35.5 g/oz, now 14% above gold parity.

Most markets moved higher this week, led by Bitcoin and the Nikkei stocks. The exceptions were silver, coffee, and especially gold stocks, which fell more than any other investment class.

Currencies all rose, led by Bitcoin, up 10.9%, and the Japanese Yen, which gained 3.6%. The USD rose 1.7% to 23.8 mg, putting it 52.3% above its half-life curve. The CAD was the laggard, gaining back the 1.6% it lost in the prior week. Bitcoin trading was a bit more active, with an average 67 kg worth of BTC changing hands each day – about double the daily volume for the previous week.

Bonds were up, with the short term SHY gaining 1.7%, in sync with the underlying USD, while the long term TLT was almost unchanged, adding 0.4% to close at 2.53 g. TLT continues to dither about, staying right at its support and resistance levels. A break one way or the other should be coming soon.

Most stocks were higher, led by the Nikkei, up 6.1%, more than making up for last week's drop. The S&P 500 added 2.7%, exactly reversing last week's fall. The HUI Gold Bugs Index was the only equity class to lose ground, declining 6.7% to close at 5.58 g. This leaves the crystal ball quite cloudy for the gold stocks until they break out above 6.25 g or fall below 5.2 g. If we do get an extended period of sideways trading it could be an opportunity to acquire some longer dated call options at reasonable prices, and if we get a breakdown below 5.2 g heading for a retest of the old low at 4.2 g, check out the possibility of selling some puts on high quality miners you'd like to own.

Commodities were mostly higher, with the exception of coffee and silver. Silver closed the week down 1.2% at 0.462 g/oz, the lowest price seen since 25-Aug-2010, and approaching support at 0.45 g. Coffee fell 1.7%, and is now 16.4% above its all-time low set last December. Crude oil and copper showed the most strength, gaining 3.8% and 3.7% respectively. Note that 2.4 g has been a critical level for crude oil for years, acting as support in 2007, and resistance many times from 2009 through 2011. In june, crude broke out above 2.4 g and reached 2.65 g in early July. This week, crude retested the 2.4 level as support, and bounced smartly off of it to close at 2.54 g. Platinum recouped the 2.2% it lost in the prior week to close at 34.1 g/oz, now 9.7% above gold parity.

Most markets were sharply lower this week; the exceptions were bitcoin, gold stocks, and silver. Most significant was the rise in the HUI gold stock index, which climbed all the way to 6.1 g before closing at 6.0 g, 15% above its recent low.

The government-issued currencies were all weaker, led by the USD, which declined another 2.6% to 23.4 mg, leaving it 49.4% above its half-life curve. The CAD and EUR were the least weak, losing 1.6% and 1.8% respectively. Bitcoin stabilized this week, climbing 2.1% to close at 2.25 g. Trading was very quiet, with only 30 kg worth of BTC changing hands – a far cry from the 535 kg we saw during the Cyprus banking crisis last April.

Bonds were lower, with the short term SHY losing 2.6%, in sync with the underlying USD, while the long term TLT fell 3.6% to close at 2.53 g, just below support at 2.55 g. This is a crucial point for TLT, as it sits both at a long-term support/resistance level, and at the bottom of its upward trending channel.

Most stocks declined again, with the Nikkei down 5.5% and the S&P 500 off 2.7%. The HUI Gold Bugs Index was the only equity advancer, adding another 3.6% to close at 5.98 g. This extends the rally to resistance between 6 and 6.25. If the HUI can clear this hurdle, the next stop is long term resistance at 6.8.

Silver was the only commodity that didn't fall this week, adding 0.4% to close at 0.47 g/oz, little changed. Crude oil led the decliners, falling 5.7%, followed by cotton and copper, each down 3.9%. Platinum dropped 2.2% to close at 33.4 g/oz, now 7.3% above gold parity.