Market Update 18 July 2014
This week, most asset categories were higher with coffee and crude oil making the biggest gains; the exceptions were copper and silver. Over the last month, currencies, bonds, and stocks (other than mining shares) were lower, while commodities were mixed. Government currencies are generally lower today than they were a year ago, especially the JPY and CAD, although the EUR gained slightly. Over the last year, bitcoin, coffee and the S&P 500 were the largest gainers, while cotton and crude oil declined the most.
Gold stocks may be forming a "head and shoulders" bottom, but I would like to see a close above 6 g before becoming bullish, and a close above 6.5 g would be much more convincing. Silver, although higher than it was a year ago, continues to languish near 0.5 g/oz with no signs of recovery in sight.
TLT, the 20 year treasury bond fund, continues to trade in its rising channel, and seems to be holding above support at 2.6g (and above its 200 day moving average as well).