Market Update 25 April 2014
This week's biggest winner was gold stocks, up 3.9%, followed by cotton and copper, which rose 2.9% and 2.2% respectively. The biggest drop was in Bitcoin, down 4.6%, followed by crude oil which lost 3.7%. Government currencies, stocks, and short term bonds were all down slightly for the week, while long term bonds gained 1.0%.
The silver fix was 0.459 g/oz on Thursday, a low not seen since August of 2010, but silver recovered on Friday to finish the week unchanged. I don't think silver has seen it's bottom yet. For the best silver market analysis I know of, visit the Monetary Metals website and read their post on Gold and Silver Speculation and the weekly Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report.
Long bonds have bounced strongly off the lower margin of their trading channel, giving a nice profit to anyone who took my suggestion back in mid-March to go long TLT. There could still be more upside, but keep a trailing stop in place, just in case!
A quick comment on Bitcoin – although this week and the last month were not good for Bitcoin, it is still up 260% over the last year – far outperforming all other asset classes. Bitcoin's long term exponential uptrend line is currently at about 2.5g, so Bitcoin could lose 77% of it's value from here, and still be in a strong uptrend. My guess is still that we will see parity with gold by the end of 2015.