Weekly Update 12-Aug-2016
Another mixed week, with currencies mostly lower, and stocks lower in the US, but higher in Japan and Europe. Commodities were volatile: crude oil made the biggest gains this week, rising 5.5%, while the largest losses were in cotton, off 8.7%, and coffee, down 4.8%.
The only rising currencies were the Chinese Yuan, which gained 1.6%, and Bitcoin, which rose 1.0%. The biggest currency losses were in the JPY, which fell 1.2%. Bonds were mixed, with the the short term SHY losing 0.8% (roughly tracking USD cash) while the long term TLT gained 0.6%.
Equities were split between the US, where the DJIA dropped 0.7% and the S&P 500 fell 0.8%, and the Euro STOXX, which gained 2.2%, and the Japanese Nikkei 225, which rose 2.8%. Gold stocks rose 0.6% to close at 6.41 grams, right on their long term resistance line. The HUI is now up 86% from one year ago, putting gold stocks and Bitcoin neck and neck as the best performing asset classes over that period.
Commodities were also mixed. Crude oil, which dropped 7.4% at the end of July and was little changed in the first week of August, finally showed a significant gain, rising 5.5% this week. The week's largest losses were in cotton, off 8.7%, and coffee, down 4.8%. Metals were all lower, led by silver, which dropped 2.6%.
Although not one of the assets I track weekly, it is worth noting that uranium ended July by setting a new all-time low of 0.59 g/lb. (My data goes back to 1988.) Is this the time to buy? Or is it the time to sell? And in either case, what's the best way to do so? I'm working on a report now that will give my answers to these questions.