Weekly Update 27 Sep 2019
Bonds were higher, cryptocurrencies much lower, and all other asset classes were mixed. Ethereum had the largest drop, falling 19.2% to give up all of last week's gains. Bitcoin's slide accelerated, as it closed the week at 172.3 grams, down 18.3%. Coffee gained 3.4%, the biggest increase of the week. Palladium was the runner-up, rising 2.3%.
Most national currencies were higher, led by the Canadian and US Dollars, up 1.1% and 0.8% respectively. The only falling currency was the Chinese Yuan, which dropped 0.4% ahead of next week's holiday shut-down. US Bonds did better than USD cash, as the short term SHY gained 0.9% and the long term TLT rose 1.4%.
Cryptos were hard hit. Ethereum ended the prior week at 4.5 grams, but fell to a low of 3.4 grams on Tuesday before recovering to finish at 3.74 grams, down 19.2%. Some smaller coins saw even larger losses; DASH, for instance (not in table) was off 25.2%. Bitcoin reached it's low of 167.6 grams on Thursday, then recovered a bit to end the week at 172.3 grams, off 18.3% and just above it's long term uptrend line. My guess is that between now and early 2020 we will see some further pushes below the uptrend line (similar to Q1 of 2019) meaning prices could go as low as 140 grams. I would treat any such dips as buying opportunities as the market prepares for the mid-2020 mining reward halving which will eventually push prices to new highs.
Stocks were mostly lower, with the Dow Jones Industrials the only gainer, rising 0.4%. Gold stocks fell the most, dropping 2.7%. The Japanese Nikkei and the Euro STOXX each fell 0.4%.
Cryptos aside, the commodities saw the most volatility. On the downside, crude oil fell 3.0%. Coffee, up 3.4%, was the week's biggest winner, followed by palladium, which gained 2.3%. Silver closed down 1.2%.
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