Americans' net worth rises for third straight quarter

Friday, March 12, 2010

Stock gains boost Americans' net worth

Americans regained more of their shrunken wealth last quarter, mainly because of gains in stock portfolios. The Federal Reserve reported Thursday that household net worth rose 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, to $54.2 trillion. Net worth rose 4.5 percent in the second quarter and 5.5 percent in the third. The value of stocks rose nearly 4 percent in the period, to $7.7 trillion. Higher home prices helped a bit: Real estate holdings edged up 0.2 percent.

Americans' net worth would have to rise 21 percent more to get back to its pre-recession peak of $65.9 trillion.

– Associated Press

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Here's the story as priced in gold:

Americans' net worth falls for second quarter in a row

Friday, March 12, 2010

Currency losses gut Americans' net worth

Americans saw their wealth shrink again last quarter, mainly because of losses in the value of the dollar. The Federal Reserve reported Thursday that household net worth fell 8.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, to 1,526 tonnes of gold. Net worth had risen 2.5 percent in the second quarter and fallen 1 percent in the third. Aside from the second quarter's uptick, net worth has been falling every period since the third quarter of 2007. Falling home prices caused a major hit: Real estate holdings dropped 9.6 percent to 467 tonnes. The value of stocks fell 6.3 percent in the period, to 217 tonnes of gold. Underlying all of these drops is the continuing debasement of the US Dollar, as bogus "bailouts", "stimulus plans" and other reckless deficit spending take their toll.

Americans' net worth would have to rise 227 percent to get back to its pre-recession peak of 5,000 tonnes of gold.

– Associated Press and PricedinGold.com

"If you want to end up with the economy of Pakistan, the politics of Ukraine and the inflation rate of Zimbabwe, bank nationalisation is the way to go."

They suggest some ways to avoid a few of the potholes in the bank recovery roadmap, but ultimately it comes down to having the political will to do the hard things, to deliver sufficient pain to the banking and financial elite that created the mess in the first place with the willing collusion and encouragement of government. Pain that must be confronted to cleanse the system of toxic waste and moral hazard. What is the chance of this type of solution coming out of a bipartisan working group? And if it was offered, what are the chances of it being implemented? And if tried, how long would it last before being abandoned as "un-workable"?

It is so much easier to just put the patient on an IV drip of stimulants and pain killers… which the Fed is happy to provide in many forms, most powerfully by "quantitative easing" and "expanding it's balance sheet", also known as "printing money".

Of course, most of the "experts" say that once the crisis has passed, and things are "back to normal" (whatever the heck that means) the Fed can simply "drain excess liquidity out of the system" to avoid any serious inflation. This is roughly the equivalent of taking the patient, now living in a happy pain-free daze, out of the heart-lung machine, pulling the IV drip, and sending him home to go cold turkey. And handing him a huge bill – equal to a large fraction of his annual income – as he checks out of the hospital.

You get the picture.

What is the solution? Have some money that has no counterparty risk and cannot be counterfeited, even by governments. Of course that means gold, preferably physical gold in your personal possession. How much? That's up to you; but with gold paying about the same interest as treasury bills, with much lower risk, and with the multitude of economic problems still lurking out there, I think 10 to 20 percent of your liquid assets would be a good place to start, and going over half would not be at all imprudent. At the moment, Cash is King, and gold is the King of cash.

Don't get swept up in illusory losses and gains due to the volatile pricing of fiat currencies like the US Dollar, either. Track your investments and net worth in gold, and don't be afraid to cut the under-performers from your portfolio. However ugly things look now, you want to be worth more gold next year than you are worth today.

Let me know if there's any way Priced in Gold can help.

The big claim is that after peaking in 2000, incomes fell, bottoming in 2003, and have now climbed back to make new highs in 2006.

The author examines IRS data showing average Adjusted Gross Income and Wages and Salaries as reported on US tax returns. The numbers quoted are a bit confusing – some are adjusted to 2006 dollars, some are totals and some are averages. But one thing is clear to me: stated in gold, Adjusted Gross Incomes in 2006 are down about 50% from their 2000 levels, about where they were in 1995. Wages and Salaries, stated in gold, are also down about 50% from their peak in 2000.

I'm not sure how useful this data is, as Adjusted Gross Income is merely a number used for calculating taxes, and is subject to all kinds of exclusions, deductions, and so on, that relate solely to the complexities of the tax code. I prefer to watch the Per Capita Disposable Income, a number reported monthly that shows on average, the money available after taxes for consumption, investing and saving. This number also fell about 50% from 2000 to 2006, and has continued to fall since then. It is currently about where it was in the late 1980s.

People do have more dollars to spend… but those dollars are worth much less. Don't be fooled! Make sure your income and net worth are rising when measured in gold.

The first part of this interview covered Paul van Eeden's background and laid out his views on gold, inflation and interest rates. In this final segment, we'll discuss what to do about this situation – how to translate this view of the world into investment action.

Paul has been working hard on a more accurate model for the money supply that will give investors a clearer picture of what's coming in terms of inflation and interest rates. The best way to get access to this information is to subscribe to his newsletter – something I strongly recommend.

As I write this, there are still a few seats left for the 2008 Agora Financial Investment Symposium, to be held in Vancouver, BC from July 22 to 25. Paul and I will be there along with the legendary Jim Rogers, Rick Rule, Bill Bonner, Doug Casey and a boatload of other excellent speakers. If you will be attending, be sure to drop me an email or leave a message on the Priced In Gold Hotline at 888-868-5656, and we'll see what we can work out for a get-together. Keep an eye out for my pith helmet!

One of my favorite quotes from his Senate presentation:

“Whereas the prices of oil and wheat measured in dollars have soared over the course of this decade, they have, on the other hand, been remarkably stable when measured in terms of gold — gold having been the foundation of the world’s monetary system until 1971. It is, therefore, reasonable to conclude not that we are a experiencing a commodities bubble, but, rather, the end of what might usefully be termed a ‘currency bubble.’”

And from the Hard Asset talk, this wonderful idea:

So how could gold make a revival as a sort of international money? Well, we don't actually need a government run gold standard anymore. There are already private gold banks. They've been growing for some time. Their growth has roughly charted the decline of the dollar. People buy digital shares in gold. Gold is held in vaults by these banks, and you buy digital claims on them, just like when you buy a stock today you don't have a physical certificate. You have a digital representation of that stock.

If we all owned digital shares in gold, and we were able to move money from our accounts between us, and we were able to walk around with smart cards carrying representations of this digital gold, we'd be able to travel around the world, and to transact with one another. Think about it. You would go into a café in Sao Paolo, and you would order your cappuccino, and you would pay with a smart card that would debit your account for some flake of gold. And since people have always had confidence in gold as a long-term store of value, there's no reason why it couldn't play that role.

Dr. Steil also comments on why gold is a better monetary choice than a basket of currencies or commodities:

The problem with a basket is I think it's too abstract for people to connect with as a long-term standard of value. In other words, a basket is probably going to have to be run by some sort of institution, and people will probably over time lose faith in the institution.

The reason why I suggest that digital gold may have more attraction for people is because a system based on one commodity with unique monetary properties like gold does not have to be run by an institution. You can have a competitive market developing around gold as an international monetary standard. So that's the reason I think gold would probably make a better money than a commodity basket that would have to be managed by some large institution.

He points out that while the US Dollar may not be doomed in the immediate future, the dilemma described in 1960 by economist Robert Triffin remains unsolved today: if a national currency operates as the international currency, this currency must be supplied to the world by running either large balance of payment deficits, or large current account deficits. But when we do that, people eventually lose confidence in this currency because it can be printed without limit.

So far the US has pushed its deficits higher than many economists of the 1980s thought possible – past 3%, then 5% and recently 7%. But at some point, people will say "enough is enough. We don't trust your management of the dollar any more." And as Dr. Steil says, "that's a very dangerous situation to be in."

These are quite remarkable discussions of the US Dollar, gold, Federal Reserve policy and the future of money. I strongly recommend that you read through them, study the included charts and think about the implications for your investments.

Unlike stocks and commodities such as silver, individual fiat currencies do not have cycles that repeat over time – they are introduced, invariably debased at varying rates, occasionally supported for short periods, and eventually replaced as they leave the world stage worthless. This is the pattern that repeats, over and over through the centuries. The details are driven by the exigencies of war and politics. There is nothing new or different about the current US Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Euro or Yen.

Rome, France under John Law, Argentina, and the Weimar Republic in Germany are often cited as examples of failed fiat money systems. Of course the US had its own Continental Dollar (which created the saying "as worthless as a Continental") as well as Lincoln's "greenbacks" and the currency of the Confederacy.

Now, you might say that these are just banana republics and ancient history. Not so! Rome was the biggest economic powerhouse the world had ever seen, and it took over 700 years for its money to go from "good as gold" to worthless. Ever heard the phrase "as rich as an Argentine"? And France and Germany were counted among the world's most powerful economies; Germany, after several failed monetary regimes, is once more the mainstay of Europe.

"Yeah, but that was in the old days. It's all different now…", I can hear someone muttering. I don't think so – as I am writing this, Zimbabwe's Dollar is going through the same fate. Once a shining example of prosperity for the rest of Africa, it took about 13 ZWD to buy one gram of gold in 1980. Today it takes more than 225,000,000 ZWD to buy one gold gram, and inflation in Zimbabwe has been estimated at over 100,000% per year and rising.

My advice? Keep on hand what you need for your day-to-day transactions and to repay your fiat currency debts. Anything more than that is a wild speculation… too risky for my taste! And please don't be fooled by FDIC insurance on your bank accounts – they only promise to give you back your dollars. There is no guarantee that those dollars will buy as much as they did when you deposited them. Your FDIC insured account with a healthy $100,000 balance was worth 3,718 grams of gold on Dec 31, 2007. Today it is worth 3,089 grams. Think about that: a 17% loss in less than 3 months, in a fully insured cash account. And you can't even deduct the loss for tax purposes!

The point of all this? Forget the incredible shrinking dollar. Don't wait for some monetary messiah to return the world to sound money – take control of your own future, right now! Track your investment performance in real terms and always make your investment decisions by pricing them in gold. Say "BUY!" to things that are growing in gold value, and say "SELL!" to those that aren't. It's as simple as that.

Your financial future depends on it, and I'm here to help.

From a March 11, 2008 story in the Financial Times:

As stated in dollars:

Wall St enjoys best one-day rise since 2002
By Chris Bryant in New York
Published: March 11 2008 13:01 | Last updated: March 11 2008 20:41

US stocks enjoyed their best one-day advance in more than five years on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve announced a $200bn plan to boost liquidity at troubled financial firms.

Banking stocks surged with financial firms chalking up gains of more than 10 per cent, as traders rushed to cover short positions. The central bank plan helped allay fears that liquidity pressures were spiraling out of control.

Energy companies and other commodity producers were among the best performers as crude oil surged to another record.

The S&P 500 closed up 3.7 per cent at 1,320.63 points, its best performance since October 2002. The Nasdaq Composite soared 4 per cent to 2,255.76 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 3.6 per cent to 12,156.81 points.

The co-ordinated central bank announcement was a welcome salve for equity investors alarmed at the pattern of recent selling.

Until Tuesday the market had retreated for three successive sessions as investors were unnerved by reports of margin calls at hedge funds and soaring home foreclosures.

Tobias Levkovitch, chief US equity strategist at Citi Investment Research, had warned that “hopelessness” was setting in.

Restated in gold:

Wall St enjoys best one-day rise of the last three weeks
By Chris Bryant in New York and Charles Vollum in Honolulu
Published: March 11 2008 13:01 | Last updated: March 11 2008 20:41

US stocks enjoyed their best one-day advance in more than 3 weeks on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve announced a plan to bail out troubled financial firms that will cost 6,413 tonnes of gold – an amount equal to 79% of the current US gold reserves.

The value of the US Dollar (32.07 mg of gold, down 0.02 mg) was almost unchanged by the announcement, but banking stocks surged with financial firms chalking up gains of more than 10 per cent, as traders rushed to cover short positions. The central bank plan helped allay fears that liquidity pressures were spiraling out of control, but astute observers know that the additional liquidity will soon show up in further declines in the value of the already beleaguered Dollar.

Energy companies and other commodity producers were among the best performers as crude oil moved up slightly to 3.487 grams per barrel. Crude prices are still about 5% lower than at the start of 2008, and more than 30% lower than their high of 5.049 grams on August 30, 2005.

The S&P 500 closed up 3.6 per cent at 42.347 gold grams, its best performance since February 13th. The Nasdaq Composite soared 3.9 per cent to 72.332 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 3.5 per cent to 389.813 gold grams.

The co-ordinated central bank announcement was a welcome salve for equity investors alarmed at the pattern of recent selling, but experts warn that this relief will come at a high price as it depresses the value of the currency.

Until Tuesday the market had retreated for three successive sessions as investors were unnerved by reports of margin calls at hedge funds and soaring home foreclosures.

Tobias Levkovitch, chief US equity strategist at Citi Investment Research, had warned that “hopelessness” was setting in. He may yet be proven right, as even after today's bounce, the markets stand more than 20% below their values starting the year and more than 72% below their all time highs of August 1999.

I'm preparing a special report on how to do these calculations, and shortcuts that make it easy to translate anything you're reading from "dollarese" into language that you can understand and act upon.

As you read the examples below, you'll see that some numbers are more or less unchanged. These involve time periods where the value of the dollar is pretty stable, as it usually is from day to day, or where it has made an excursion up or down in value and ended at about the same level as at the beginning of the period.

You will also see some cases where the change in value is dramatically larger than the dollar figures would suggest. These are usually cases where the declining value of the dollar is adding to the decline in the value being reported. Of course, a rising dollar would also add to the increase in value of an asset or security.

And then, there are cases where measuring in gold completely reverses the meaning of the statistics being given in dollars – these are the fun ones!

Ready to explore the world from a new perspective? Great! Here we go!

For the most part, commodities have stayed reasonably priced. Crude oil, gasoline, silver and platinum are all trading in the ranges they have occupied for several years. And even uranium, which saw a tremendous spike in 2007, has returned to about 3 grams per pound.

There are lots of opportunities out there. Just be careful to look at the true value of what you're buying – as measured in gold – and don't be fooled by the inflating dollar prices that are sure to follow in the wake of the monetary stimulus that is likely to be unleashed in the coming months.

ps – There are problems with the automatically generated charts for CAD, Copper and Wheat. I am working to update these so they will display properly. I'll let you know when they're working again. Thanks for your understanding!

From 1904 to 1929 the Dow grew 12 times in value from 47 to 568 gold grams, then gave up 89% of that gain, ending at 64 grams in 1933.  In the next phase, the Dow grew almost 14 times, to 893 grams in 1966.  This was followed by a long decline, losing almost 96% of it's value, finally bottoming around 37 grams in 1980.  Then the next bull market emerged, growing over 37 times to 1,393 gold grams in 1999.  The 8 years following this all time peak have been a downward march, representing a loss of almost 56% to the August 31, 2007 close of 618.262 gold grams.

What will the future hold?  I would love to hear comments from technicians on this topic… But if the last two market cycles are any guide, I suspect we will see the Dow trading below 200 gold grams sometime in the next 5 to 10 years, and it may not be until around 2035 that a new high is made.

There are many roads that could lead to the 200 gram level; the Dow could move sideways as the value of the dollar shrinks, or the Dow could keep making "new highs" in terms of a plummeting dollar, or the dollar could stabilize or even strengthen while the Dow collapses in nominal terms.

But if your goal is to build your real wealth, the key is to keep your eye on the ball: investing in assets that are growing in gold value, regardless of their price as viewed in the fun-house mirrors of fiat currencies.  The Custom Chart service can help you identify those opportunities, and we will be bringing more tools online in the future as well.