Weekly Update 13 Jan 2023

Bonds fell, cryptocurrencies rallied, and other asset classes were mixed. Bitcoin, up 14.1%, and the broader CCi30, up 11.1%, were the best performers. The largest losses were in coffee, down 6.9%, and cotton, down 6.7%. Bright spots outside of crypto were crude oil, up 5.1%, and copper, up 4.5%. USD cash underperformed treasuries, falling 2.9% while short term notes fell 2.7% and long term bonds dropped 1.4%.

The Japanese Yen was the best performing national currency in the table, rising 0.9%. Not in the table, the Russian Ruble was also a winner, rising 2.9%. All other currencies I follow were in the red, led by the USD, which fell 2.9%, and the Swiss Franc (not in table), which declined 2.4%. As noted above, bonds fell, but still outperformed USD cash.

Bitcoin had a super week, rising gently on Tuesday but accelerating sharply as the week went on to close at 324.7 grams, up 14.1%. Ether and the broader crypto market followed a similar trajectory. ETH finished the week at 23.7 grams, up 11.1%.

Major stock indexes were split along US/International lines. The S&P 500 fell 1.5% and the the Dow Industrials dropped 0.9%, while the Euro STOXX50 rose 2.2% and the Nikkei gained 1.4%. Gold stocks also rose, adding 0.4%.

As mentioned above, commodities saw some of the week's best and worst returns. The only bright spots were crude oil, up 5.1%, and copper, up 4.5%; all others were in the red. Coffee and cotton fell 6.9% and 6.7% respectively, and the precious metals were down as well, with palladium falling 5.3%, platinum dropping 4.3%, and silver closing off 2.0%.

Year over year, only platinum, up 3.4%, is in the green; the worst losses are in crypto, with the CCi30 index down 65.4%. Over the last five years, only palladium is in the green, rising 10.2%. Next best performers are the S&P 500, down 1.4%, and Bitcoin, off 3.5%. The worst losses are again in the CCi30 crypto index, which has fallen 73.8%, followed by the Japanese Yen, down 39.3%.

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