Weekly Update 26 Feb 2021

Cryptocurrencies fell this week, but most other assets were in the black. After weeks of massive gains and new all-time highs, bitcoin retreated 15.0% and ether fell 24.4%. The largest gains were in coffee, up 10.5%, and crude oil, up 6.4%.

National currencies were higher across the board, led by the Euro, up 2.6%, and the US Dollar, up 2.5%. The Chinese Yuan lagged, gaining just 0.1%. Debt under-performed cash, as both short term notes and long term bonds rose 2.4%.

Cryptos pulled back and caught their breath after weeks of relentless rises and new all-time highs. Bitcoin made a new high of 1002 grams on Sunday, crossing the 1 kg level for the first time. From there it worked its way lower to close at 827 grams, down 15.0%. Ether finished last week at a new all time high, drifted lower over the weekend, fell below 1 ounce of gold on Monday, and continued to slide as the week progressed, ending at 25.8 grams, down 24.4%. The smaller crypto coins were all over the place, some rising, but many falling further than ETH and BTC; overall, the CCI30 index declined 16.8%.

Gold stocks fell 2.7% and the Japanese Nikkei index dropped 1.9%. The Dow Industrials added 0.7% and the S&P 500 was unchanged. The Dow is trading right at its 36 month moving average; a solid close above this level could be a buy signal for long-term trend followers.

Platinum was the only falling commodity in the table, dropping 4.6%. Coffee was the strongest, both in the group and overall, rising 10.5%. Crude came in second, adding 6.4%. Silver advanced 1.5% to 476 mg.

As we approach the first anniversary of the March 2020 crash, many assets are moving into the black year over year. Of course, cryptocurrencies dominate the field with gains of 452.5% for ether and 392.8% for bitcoin, but copper, up 49.3%, and silver, up 38.5%, are also showing strength. In fact, palladium is the only commodity in the red, down 18.2% from a year ago. Long term bonds are the next-worst asset, falling 9.4%. Gold stocks declined, but all other equities were higher, led by the Nikkei, up 25.8%. National currencies were a mixed bag for the year, as the Euro rose 4.8% and the US Dollar fell 6.2%.

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