Weekly Update 7 July 2017

This was a holiday week in North America, so I will summarize both the last week of June and the first week of July by saying that national currencies and major stock indexes were rising, digital tokens were falling, and bonds and commodities were mixed. The biggest gains were in coffee, which rose 5.9% during the last week of June, and a further 4.8% this week. Crude oil was a close second, rising 8.2% for W/E 30 June, but pulling back 1.8% this week. The largest losses were in the Ethereum token, which fell 14.6% in the prior week, and another 14.1% this week, to settle at 6.25 grams. Although this is a very significant drop, it needs to be seen in the context of a gain of over 2000% for the last year.

The Japanese Yen was the weakest national currency, rising just 0.3% for the last week in June, and 0.6% this week. The Canadian Dollar, up 3.3% last week and another 3.1% this week, was the strongest currency. Bonds favored the shorter maturities, as the 20+ year TLT fell 1.0% during the last week in June, and added just 0.4% this week, while the 1-3 year SHY rose 1.0% and 2.2% in the same periods. But USD cash gained even more, rising 1.1% last week and 2.2% this week.

Bitcoin spent the last two weeks trading very close to 2 ounces of gold. It fell to 61.6 grams on July 1st, then rallied to 67.0 grams July 5th, and finally settled at 64.5 grams, up 3.1% for the week. Ethereum started the last week in June by rallying to 8.2 grams on June 28th, but slid lower each day thereafter, closing at 6.2 grams this week, a loss of 26.7% for the two week period. Keep in mind that this is less than the 33.4% gain seen in the single week ending Jun 6th, and a fairly small pullback in the context of the last year's gains.

The major markets indexes all moved higher over the last two weeks, but gold stocks tumbled, with the HUI falling 4.1% for the last week in June, and a further 0.9% this week. The Dow Jones Industrials had the largest gains, while the Nikkei 225 showed the least luster, dropping 0.2% in the last week of June and recovering 0.5% this week.

Commodities were mixed, with coffee making strong gains each week, while silver fell a bit each week, closing at 405 mg. Crude oil rose 8.2% during the last week of June, but pulled back 1.8% this week. Platinum also made small gains each week (up 0.5% and 1.0%), while palladium fell 4.2% last week, but recovered 1.3% this week.