Market Update 27 Jul 2012
Last week was almost a complete reversal from the week before; the only thing in common was the continuing decline in silver and copper.
Currencies were all down strongly, with the EUR leading the decline, falling 3.2%. Bonds also fell; the long term TLT falling the most, down 3.8% while the shorter term SHY moved down 2.6%, roughly in line with the decline of the USD.
Commodities were all lower, lead by coffee, down 9.5%. Silver showed the least weakness, falling only 0.2%.
The main stock indices also declined, lead by the Nikkei, down 2.8%; gold stocks bucked the trend, with the HUI rising 0.6%. The Dow, although down 0.7% this week, is still near it's high for the last 12 months (set last week). The 250 gram level was support during 2010 and the first half of 2011; in 2012 it has become resistance. It will be interesting to see if stocks can break out above this level; if not, a retest of last fall's lows may be in order.
The USD continues to to stick very close to its "Half Life Curve", losing about half of its value every four years. For the last month, it has been hovering about 5% above the curve. After several years of under-performance, it would be entirely reasonable to see continued out-performance and some further gains. Continuing crisis in Europe, slowing growth in China, and recession concerns in the US provide ample fuel for this. On the other hand, these same trends make money printing, quantitative easing, plunge protection, and other central bank hanky-panky all the more likely; this means that any USD upside will likely be short lived.
If you are lucky enough to live in Switzerland, have a happy Confederation Day!
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