Market Update

This was a good week for investments generally, but a horrible week for the Canadian Dollar, which dropped a stunning 8.5% bringing it back in line with the other currencies for the month, and leaving the Chilean Peso the only currency I'm tracking that is up for the year to date. The other losers were crude oil, down 3.5%, and long term US bonds (TLT) which closed down 0.8% for the week.

Although gold stocks (HUI) were unchanged, all the others saw gains, with cotton leading the way, up 4.4%.

Currencies other than the CAD were up only slightly, with the EUR the strongest, rising 0.9%. The USD, up 0.1% for the week, is now 1.5% above its 200 day moving average, and 14% above its all-time low. Still, it's down 5.3% so far in 2012, and down 14.3% from one year ago. It is also 4.5% below the price predicted by the half-life decay curve, which currently suggests a value of 19.6mg (equivalent to a gold price of $1587).

Platinum was up slightly for the week, but for the last two weeks has been hovering just below parity with gold. It is currently 1.4% below parity and 13.6% above its low on the 9th of January. I believe platinum will eventually return to a significant premium to gold, so at these levels it is still a good buy.

Silver gained 2.9% this week, but continues to hover around 0.6 g/oz where it has been for the last two weeks.

In addition to crude oil, I also track natural gas and gasoline, which have each been following quite different trajectories in 2012. Crude oil is now trading about where it was at the end of 2011, but got there by falling during January, recovering during February, and hovering around 2 g/bbl during March. Gasoline has been rising a bit each week, leaving it 14.6% higher for the year so far. Natural gas, on the other hand, has continued to work its way lower, ending March with a new all-time low of 39.8 mg per million BTUs.

Although TLT is down slightly this week, it was up last week, and long term US bonds remain the only major investment category that is up over the last 12 months. I entered this trade at 2.189 grams, and am currently down 4.1%. I am watching the 200 day moving average carefully to see if it continues to provide support. If not, I'm taking my loss and getting out.

Weekly summary for 30-Mar-2012

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